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W10: Weekly Soybean Update

Updated Mar 15, 2023
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what happened during W10 in the global soybean landscape. In summary, USDA lowered the forecast for the global production of soybeans in 2022/23 MY by 8M MT to 375.1M MT compared to February’s estimate of 383M MT. In Brazil, soybean production is estimated to amount to 145.0M MT in the 2022/23 season, up 21.3% compared to the previous campaign. China still maintained the soybean crop projection at 20.29M MT in 2022/23 compared to 16.4M MT last season. Ghanaian non-GMO soybeans prices registered an increase of 10% MoM in March 2023 and are expected to be relatively stable throughout the month.


Global Arable Market Report (Mar 6)

Chicago soybean futures (May-23) were marginally pressured across W9, closing at USD 557.99/MT. According to Brazilian agricultural consultancy AgRural, Brazil’s soybean harvest as of W9 was estimated to be 43% complete, progressing 10% from the previous week. This is one of the weighing factors on the oilseed complex currently. Buenos Aires Grain Exchange announced on Mar 2 that there will be further cuts to Argentina’s soybean crop from drought impact. Currently, the Exchange forecast the crop at 33.5MT, down from the 48MT estimated at the start of the cropping cycle. Analysts expect the USDA to lower Argentina’s soybean crop by 4.35MT, which will peg the crop at 36.65MT, which is still higher than Argentine consultancies. 

USDA Reduces Production of Global Soybean Stocks (Mar 8)

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released on Mar 8 its new supply and demand report for agricultural products and ended up reducing the prospects for production and ending stocks of soybeans in the world. In this context, the estimate of global soybean production fell from 383.01M MT to 375.15M MT and stocks were reduced from 102.03M MT to 100.01M MT. 

World Soybean Export Sales Hit Marketing Year Lows (Mar 9)

Soybean meal came out at 319.8K MT, up 86% on the week and 85% from the four-week average. The Philippines purchased 84.3K MT and Morocco bought 43.7K MT. For the marketing year to date, soybean meal exports are 8.045M MT, compared to 8.645M MT a year ago. Sales of 110K MT for 2023/24 delivery were to Ecuador (96K MT) and Indonesia (14K MT). Soybean oil was reported at 7.3K MT. Mexico picked up 7.5K MT, while Canada canceled 200 MT. Cumulative soybean oil exports are 59.3K MT, compared to 581.8K MT last year.


February Consolidates Losses in Soybean Production in Argentina and Rio Grande Do Sul, but Brazil Reaps a Record Harvest (Mar 6)

Losses in production in Argentina and Rio Grande do Sul, due to the lack of rain, materialized. But the harvest in the other states of Brazil has gained pace and the results are positive, indicating a record offered by the main world producer of the oilseed. Brazilian soybean production in 2022/23 should total 152.43M MT, an increase of 18.6% over the previous season's crop, which was 128.5M MT. If confirmed, it will be the biggest harvest in history. In January, when the previous report was released, the projection was 153.37M MT. The retraction over the previous estimate is 0.61%. SAFRAS indicates an increase of 3.6% in the area, estimated at 43.86M ha. In 2021/22, planting occupied 42.34M ha. The survey points out that average productivity should increase from 3.05K kg/ha to 3.49K kg/ha.

Soy Dribbles Dry and Brazilian Production Jumps to 154.2M MT (Mar 6)

In its February estimate, StoneX raised the expectation for Brazilian soybean production for 2022/23 to 154.2M MT, against 153.79M MT released in the previous report. While production in the Rio Grande do Sul is now estimated at 19M MT, more than 2M less than what was announced at the beginning of January, other States show satisfactory results in the harvest. StoneX calculated an expected increase in productivity in the Southeast, Midwest, North, and Northeast, offsetting the drop in the South, in addition to a review of the planted area in some states. With the confirmation of a soybean harvest of over 150M MT, the 2022/23 balance of supply and demand could end up with stocks slightly higher than in previous years, at 6.89M MT.

Weather Hinders Soybean Harvest in Brazil (Mar 6)

The soybean harvest in Brazil continues at a slow pace, due to heavy rainfall in major producing regions. Collaborators consulted by Cepea indicate that some areas of soybeans desiccated for days still can not be harvested due to frequent rains. This scenario brings the possibility of damaged and burned soybeans, which can even impact the production of soybean derivatives, especially oil. As of February 18, Brazil had harvested only 23% of the 152.88M MT forecast for the 2022/23 season, which is below the 33% harvested in the same period last year, according to Conab (National Supply Company).

Brazil Has Maintained Low Soybean Exports Since the Beginning of the Year Due to a Delay in Harvesting (Mar 6)

According to AgRural, Brazil exported 6M MT of soybeans in January-February, which is 31% lower than the corresponding indicator in 2022. The slow pace of exports is due to delays in oilseeds harvesting and the high exchange rate of the national currency, which encourages local farmers to hold back sales. Thus, as of February 28, sales of the 2022/23 oilseed crop amounted to 45M MT compared to 61M MT in the previous year, which is only 30% of the expected production in the current season and is the lowest figure since 2005/06 MY. However, given the lack of storage capacity in Brazil, experts expect a significant acceleration in soybean exports in the coming months.

Sales of Brazil’s 2022/23 Soybean Crop Advance to 35.4% (Mar 6)

The sale of the 2022/23 soybean crop in Brazil had reached 35.4% of projected production, according to a report by Safras & Mercado, with data collected up to March 3. Despite the advance of about 5% points compared to the previous month's survey, soybean sales are still lagging, according to the consultancy. In the same period last year, trading involved 48.5% and the five-year average for the period was 51.7%. Safras stated that advance sales for the 2023/24 cycle, with planting starting in September in Brazil, have already started. Taking into account a hypothetical harvest of 152.43M MT (repeating the current production number), the consultancy projects anticipated commercialization of 1.6%, involving 2.36M MT. In the same period last year, early sales were 7.1% and the average for the period is 10.6%.

Rains in Brazil Affect Corn Harvest, but Price Remains Stable (Mar 6)

The constant rains in parts of the Southeast, Midwest, and South of the country continue to limit the harvest of the summer soybean and corn crops and, consequently, the sowing of the second season. On the one hand, sellers continue to negotiate only when they need to “make cash” and/or free up space in warehouses. On the other hand, buyers stayed away from acquisitions. 

Soybean Drops Are Big in the South of Brazil (Mar 7)

In the soybean market in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, a day of general declines of up to 4.00/bag was recorded, according to information released by TF Agroeconomia. “Rumors that the Argentine harvest may be less than 30.0M MT in soybeans, set the bullish tone of the day in Chicago, mainly in bran, which rose 2.50%on Mar 7 alone. In theory, the break in Argentina will greatly benefit the crushing companies in Rio Grande do Sul, as there will be a lot of coverage for bran shipments, via Rio Grande terminals”, he comments. “At the port, the indication of price for payment in March is USD 33.09 (BRL 175.00) on wheels at the best time. This represents a drop of USD 0.47/bag (BRL 2.50). In the cities of Cruz Alta and Ijuí, prices were USD 31.58 (BRL 167.00) and USD 31.77 (BRL 168.00) respectively, with lows of USD 0.76 (BRL 4.00) and USD 0.38 (BRL 2.00), respectively”, he adds. Santa Catarina prices were at a standstill, while business was still very punctual. 

IMEA Raises Projection for 2022/23 Soybean of Mato Grosso With Advances in Area and Productivity (Mar 7)

The 2022/23 soybean production in Mato Grosso should reach a record 44.3M MT, the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) estimated on Mar 6, with an advance compared to 42.8M previously estimated driven by gains in area and productivity. If confirmed, the volume will represent an increase of 8.35% compared to the previous cycle. Rains that occurred in January and, mainly, December helped in the recovery of earlier crops that went through some water stress in mid-November, said IMEA, improving crop yields. With that, the institute linked to rural producers raised the productivity expectation by 1.92% in relation to the February report, to 61.59 bags/ha, a historic maximum for the State. 

Brazil Activates Planting of Safrinha Corn as Soybean Harvesting Is Completed (Mar 7)

In Brazil, the harvesting campaign of soybeans is being completed, against which the sowing of safrinha corn is activated. So, as of February 24, grain sowing was carried out on 39.1% of the planned areas, which, however, is inferior to the figure for the same period last season (52.4%), reports Soybeans &Corn Advisor. As noted, this backlog is due to delays in the harvest of soybeans due to rains, especially in the south-central regions of Brazil. At the same time, the most active sowing is carried out in the states of Mato Grosso (56.4% of the plan), Goias (35.8%), Mato Grosso do Sul (27.9%), Parana (26%), Minas Gerais (12.3%) and Sao Paulo (10%). In general, the sown area under safrinha corn in the current MY is expected to be at the level of 14.9M ha, which is higher than last season (14.8M ha).

Soybean Harvest and Safrinha Corn Planting Are Slow in Parana (Mar 7)

Wet weather continues to slow the soybean harvest progress in the state of Parana in southern Brazil. Farmers in Parana had harvested 17% of their 2022/23 soybeans as of earlier in W10 compared to 42% in 2020 and 50% in 2019 according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). This represents an advance of 10% for W10. The harvest is especially slow in the west-central part of the state. As farmers finish harvesting their soybeans, many plant a second crop of corn. The safrinha corn planting was 26% earlier this week compared to 12% last week. Safrinha corn was 28% planted in 2021, 61% in 2020, and 73% in 2019. The ideal planting window generally closes about the end of February, but planting continues into March in the northern part of the state. Deral reported that 55% of the safrinha corn was germinating and 45% was in vegetative development. 

Brazil Exported 5.2M MT of Soybeans in February (Mar 8)

After a relatively weak start, Brazilian soybean exports began to show signs of accelerating. According to information from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC), practically 5.2M MT left the country in February, a 520% jump over exports registered in January. Relevant increases in shipped volumes are the rule between January and February. It is just in February that the soybean harvest of the current crop starts to get into gear and, therefore, a greater amount of soybeans begins to arrive at the ports. Even so, they had a very remarkable acceleration this year. Despite this improvement in shipped volume, soy exports in 2023 follow behind those registered in 2022. It is worth remembering that, although last year ended with a drop of 8.3 %, foreign sales in the first two months were strong.

Soybean Exports From Brazil Should Advance 20.5% In March (Mar 8)

Brazil is expected to export 14.66M MT of soybeans in March, up 20.5% YoY, the National Association of Cereal Exporters (Anec) estimated in its first projection on Mar 8 for the month. The largest global producer and exporter of the oilseed shipped 7.55M MT of the grain abroad in February, versus 9.1M MT in the same month of 2022, in the face of a slower harvest of the 2022/23 crop. The projection for March is in line with estimates by the maritime agency Cargonave.

Brazilian Market Continues With a Set of Price-Containment Attitudes (Mar 9)

The Brazilian soybean crop is being reaped, and producers are making their trading and storage decisions. In several locations, the option has still been to retain soybeans and sell corn to guarantee space for the arrival of the soybean crop. Gradually, this attitude meets the short-term demand of the consumer sector. At the same time, a cut in the average weight of pigs lowers the demand scenario a little, but nothing that influences prices at this moment. On the other hand, avian flu and BSE in Pará do not influence demand and/or prices in Brazil at this time. The fact is that the market is still trying to reach the second crop with only the summer corn available, and this is a great challenge for the market this semester, given the delay in planting the corn second crop. Regional harvests are evolving and offering some supply points to the Brazilian domestic market. Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina are still reaping and with concerns about space for soybeans.

Soy Production Should Boost Grain Harvest in Brazil in 2022/23 (Mar 9)

Brazilian grain production in the 2022/23 harvest could reach 309.9M MT, according to the National Supply Company (Conab). Almost half of this total volume is the result of soybean crops, with a forecast harvest of around 151.4M MT. If this forecast is confirmed, the volume of soybean harvested this season will be 20.6% higher than that recorded in the previous cycle, pointing to a recovery in the productivity of crops that were affected by adverse weather conditions in 2021/22. However, Conab's estimate suffered a negative variation of 1% in relation to the last announcement, due to the damage caused by the drought in Rio Grande do Sul. Despite this, these losses were partially offset by gains observed in Tocantins, São Paulo, Goiás, and Mato Grosso do Sul. Soybean harvesting is progressing in all producing regions, but with percentages below those recorded in the previous harvest, due to different reasons, such as excessive rainfall.

Another Down Day for Soybeans (Mar 9)

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling, unable to hold onto early modest gains. CONAB lowered its outlook for Brazil’s crop slightly from last month and there are harvest delays, but it will still record large, currently seen at 151.419M MT. Harvest is about halfway complete with CONAB’s next round of projections out on April 13th. The Rosario Grain Exchange slashed its estimate for Argentina to just 27M MT, 7.5M MT less than their last guess. Weekly 2022/23 export sales were a net reduction and a marketing year low following cancellations by unknown destinations and Pakistan. New crop sales were routine. Unknown destinations bought 184K MT of 2022/23 US soybeans ahead of the open. China’s National Grain and Oils Information Center says domestic crush volumes were down for the third week in a row due to tight supplies.

Sicredi Projects Soybean Harvest in Brazil Below CONAB With Lower Expectations for Rio Grande Do Sul (Mar 9)

Sicredi, the second largest financier of Brazilian rural producers, assesses that the estimate for the soybean harvest in Rio Grande do Sul is still overestimated by the National Supply Company (Conab), despite a further reduction in the forecast by the state-owned company on Mar 9, and therefore projects a national harvest below 150M MT. For the chief economist at Sicredi, André Nunes de Nunes, the official forecasts will converge to numbers closer to the estimate of the financial institution, which has its own team for harvest evaluations, as the harvest progresses in the State that is among the largest producers in the country. Sicredi, which is second only to Banco do Brasil among the largest agribusiness financiers, with an offer of USD 9.45 (50B reais) for the 2022/23 season, estimates Brazilian production of the oilseed at 147M MT, while Conab sees the national harvest at 151.4M MT.

Aprosoja Brasil Launches Campaign to Strengthen the Entity in the States (Mar 9)

“Seja Aprosoja” is the new mobilization campaign of the Brazilian Association of Soy Producers (Aprosoja Brasil) to encourage farmers across the country to join one of the 16 State Aprosojas. The initiative will be launched on Mar 9, starting at 9 am, during the National Opening of the 2022/23 Soybean Harvest, which takes place in the municipality of Santarém (PA) and is part of the Soja Brasil Project. In addition to strengthening Aprosoja in the states, the entity also intends to update its database on the producer and on soybean production in the national territory. According to the 2017 IBGE agricultural census, soy is produced on about 240K rural properties in Brazil. 

Soy Harvest Evolves to 30% In the Last Week in Paraná, Brazil (Mar 9)

The soybean harvest is evolving in Paraná. In one week, the volume grew from 17% to 30% of the area of 5.7M ha, but it is still lower than the average of the last harvests which, in this period, had 50% of the area harvested. The analysis is by the Secretariat of Agriculture and Supply (Seab). Technicians point out that soy productivity is a positive surprise. Even so, there is concern about the incidence of diseases, which requires more fungicide applications, burdening production or increasing the possibility of losses where control is not satisfactory. The progress of the Brazilian crop harvest, combined with the prices practiced internationally and the dollar that is momentarily unfavorable to the producer is reflected in the amount paid to the soybean producer. In February, it was USD 29.90/sack (R$ 158.14), on average. It is the lowest price since December 2021 and represents a 3% decrease compared to January and 14% compared to February 2022. 

February Estimate Drops by 1.3% With Drought in Rio Grande Do Sul in Brazil, but 2023 Crop Will Still Be a Record (Mar 9)

The Brazilian crop of cereals, legumes, and oilseeds should reach a new record in 2023, totaling 298.0M MT, according to the February estimate of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), released on Mar 9 by the IBGE. The value is up 13.3%, 34.9M MT greater than the harvest obtained in 2022. In relation to January, the estimate recorded a reduction of 1.3% (3.9M MT), the first drop since the beginning projections for 2023. Even so, the expectation is for record production of soy and corn in the year. The area to be harvested should be 75.8M ha, showing growth of 3.5% compared to the area harvested in 2022, an increase of 2.6M ha. In relation to the previous month, the area to be harvested increased by 36,592ha (0.0%). 

2022/23 Brazil Soybeans 43% Harvested Compared to 54% Last Year (Mar 9)

Rainfall over the weekend favored southern and northwestern Brazil. The rainfall was relatively light with the heaviest amounts limited to Sao Paulo and Parana. The forecast for W10 was calling for rain in central and northwestern Brazil. Overall, the rains in Brazil have been gradually getting lighter, which is typical for the month of March. The soybean crop in Brazil was 43% harvested as of late last week compared to 54.6% last year and 46.6% average according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 10% for the week. Mato Grosso leads the way with 88% harvested while Parana remains slow at 17% harvested. Open weather in Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais, Bahia, Tocantins and should allow for a quick harvest pace. The soybeans in Mato Grosso were 88.1% harvested as of late last week compared to 90.4% last year and 81.5% average. This represents an advance of 11.8% for the week. The most advanced harvest is in the mid-north region where the soybeans are 97% harvested. The slowest harvest is in the northeastern region where 74% of the soybeans have been harvested. Relatively dryer weather over the last several weeks has allowed farmers to move ahead of the average harvest pace. 

Brazil’s Meteorological Conditions That Make It Difficult to Harvest Soybeans (Mar 9)

The soybean harvest in Brazil continues at a slow pace due to rains in important producing regions. Collaborators consulted by Cepea indicate that some areas of soybean crops have already been drained for days and still could not be harvested, due to frequent rains. This scenario is starting to worry national soybean producers due to the possibility of getting deteriorated and/or burnt soybeans, which could have an impact on the production of its derivatives, especially oil. Brazil had harvested only 23% of the 152.88M MT forecast for the 2022/23 season until the 18th, against 33% harvested in the same period last year, according to Conab (National Supply Company).

Soybean Production Should Total 145.0M MT in 2023 (Mar 10)

Brazil should harvest more soybeans and corn in 2023 according to data from the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production in February, released on Mar 10 by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Soybean production should add up to 145.0M MT, an increase of 21.3% compared to last year's production.

Soybean Harvest 2022/23 in Mato Grosso Reaches 94.83% Of the Area (Mar 10)

Farmers in Mato Grosso harvested 94.83% of the soybean area in the 2022/23 season, a weekly advance of 6.7% points, keeping pace ahead of the historical average of 90.29% for the period, showed data from the Institute Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) on Mar 10. A year earlier, when work started earlier and moved at greater speed, 96.76% of the areas were harvested, the data showed. With the removal of soybeans from crops, corn planting reached 96.44% of the areas, an advance of 7.08 points in one week. In the same period of the last crop, planting was slightly higher at 97.95% and the historical average is 96.26%.

Brazil May Have Second Category Soybeans if the Chain Is Not Organized, Says Embrapa’s General Chief (Mar 10)

Brazilian soy could become a “second category” product on the international market if the crop chain is not organized. The alert comes from the head of Embrapa Soja, Alexandre Nepomuceno. According to him, the future of soy is the addition of value to products and by-products, allowing diversification of uses and markets. The United States is already well advanced in this regard, with five soybean varieties with altered oil quality being cultivated, and a gradual increase in the areas destined for them, so “we need to be careful” not to be left behind. Soy is made up of low levels of oleic acid, and high levels of palmitic and linolenic acid. The increase in oilseed quality involves increasing, through genetic improvement, the amount of oleic acid, and reducing the other two.

Safras & Mercado Raises Projection for Soybean Exports From Brazil in 2023 to 94M MT (Mar 10)

Brazil, the global leader in soy exports, should ship 94M MT of the grain in 2023, consultancy Safras & Mercado estimated on Mar 10, with an increase of 1M MT in the estimate compared to the last projection, released in January. The expectation for the crushing of the oilseed also increased by 1M to 53M MT. If confirmed, the volumes should represent increases of 19% in exports and 6% in processing compared to last year. The consultancy's estimates consider a record harvest of 152M MT of soybeans for the 2022/23 harvest, an annual increase of 19%. "In relation to the 2023 season, the total soybean supply should increase by 15%, to 156.378M MT. Total demand is projected by Safras at 150.5M MT, growing 14% over the previous year. In this way, ending stocks are expected to rise 53%, from 3.85M to 5.878M MT," the consultancy said in a note.

Field Day Discusses the Challenges for Soy Sustainability in the Central Region of Minas Gerais (Mar 10)

The soybean crop is an alternative for crop diversification and recovery of degraded pasture areas. Producers in the Central region of Minas Gerais are learning about the benefits of growing this crop and learning how to insert soybeans into Integrated Crop-Livestock-Forest (ILPF) systems. The technical team at Embrapa Maize and Sorghum considers that the reconversion of degraded pasture areas into environments with a higher production level is the way Brazil should follow in the coming decades. This must be due to the need to reconcile increased agricultural production and sustainable use of resources, without further interference in natural ecosystems, in order to meet compliance targets for increasingly demanding consumer markets. In this scenario, the main strategies involve intensification and diversification of the productive system in rural property. 

Brazilian Soy Exported to Feed European Cattle Affects Nitrogen Recycling (Mar 10)

The European Union faces a serious environmental crisis with high nitrogen emission rates and the acidification of its ecosystems. Concerns turn to livestock activity, which is responsible for 17% of the bloc's greenhouse gas emissions. Within this scenario, researchers from the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science (FMVZ) at USP studied the impacts generated by the increased export of Brazilian soy to feed European livestock and warn of the dangers of overloading the nitrogen cycle in EU territory. Nitrogen is present in 78% of the Earth's atmosphere and is essential for human life and for the nutrition and growth of plants, which need it to develop. In addition, it is a nutrient used by various organisms, being necessary to form proteins, nucleic acids, and other components of the cell. The nitrogen cycle, in turn, is the process that ensures the recycling of the element in the environment, allowing it to circulate through the biosphere.

Soybean Harvest for 2022/23 Reaches 53% Of Areas in Brazil (Mar 10)

The 2022/23 soy harvest reached 52.9% of the total area in Brazil, with work behind schedule compared to previous years driven by Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, consultancy Pátria AgroNegócios said on Mar 10, citing fears with the planting of the "safrinha" corn. "Greater delays are still concentrated in Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, which raises concerns about the second crop window", said the consultancy in a note. Mato Grosso and Rondônia are already on their way to the final stretch. A year earlier, 64.3% of the areas were harvested, while the historical average for the period is 56.9%. "Lower volume of rain accelerated harvesting work in northeastern Brazil."

With 44.3M MT in the Current Harvest, Mato Grosso Becomes the 3rd Largest Soybean Producer in the World (Mar 12)

Mato Grosso has consolidated itself as the leader in soybean production in Brazil, reaching new records in each harvest and ranking among the world's main producers of grain. If it were a country, Mato Grosso would be third in the global ranking. An estimate by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), released in W10, points to the production of 44.3M MT of soybeans in the 2022/23 harvest, which represents about 30% of the total production in Brazil. According to the National Supply Company (Conab), the country should produce 151.4M MT. Currently, the ranking of largest soybean producers has the United States in second position, with production estimated at 121M MT for 2022/23, and Argentina in third place, with a projected production of 33.5M MT of grain. 

United States

Commercial Demand Pulls Soybeans Higher in the US (Mar 6)

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. Near-term forecasts have more harvest-delaying rain in parts of central and northern Brazil against continued drought in Argentina. Safras e Mercado says 35.4% of Brazil’s 2022/23 soybean crop has been sold, considerably slower than normal. Soybean meal is the most bullish part of the complex due to strong domestic demand, blunting any bearish impact from the lack of improved export demand as Argentina’s crop fails. Argentina is typically the world’s largest exporter of soybean products and while US meal was expected to help fill the void, it hasn’t happened. Soybean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads. Just past the halfway point of the marketing year, 2022/23 US soybean export inspections were down on the week and the year, but still ahead of 2021/22 and more than what’s needed to meet USDA projections. The top destinations were China and Japan.

USDA Reports Lower-Than-Expected Weekly Soybean Shipments (Mar 6)

The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) brought its new weekly shipment numbers on Mar 6, with lower-than-expected data for soybeans. Its weekly shipments were 542.24K MT, while the market expected something between 625K and 1.3M MT. With this volume, total shipments reach 42.701M MT, 3% more than the total for the same period last year.

Soybean Prices Are Up Slightly in the US (Mar 6)

From February 24 to March 3 on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, quotes for soybeans and soy products behaved differently. Quotes of soybeans and soybean meal continued to rise in price, but at a very limited pace, while soybean oil quotes fell. On March 3, soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were not stable. On the one hand, they were under pressure from large exports, and they were influenced by fears of a smaller-than-expected harvest in Brazil due to drought. The most active soybean contract remained at USD 15.09/bushel. Since Mar 6, it has fallen in price by 0.7%. As a result, from February 24 to March 3, soybean quotes rose from USD 15.29 to USD 15.30/bushel, up 0.07%. Meal quotes increased from USD 497.1 to USD 498.1/MT, up 0.20%, while soybean oil fell from USD 0.6111 to USD 0.6061/pound, up 0.82%.

Bran Shoots up More Than 2% In Chicago and Soybeans Follow Highs in This 2nd (Mar 6)

Soybean meal futures soared in the early afternoon of Mar 6th and registered highs of more than 2%, also leading to good gains among grain prices. Around 12:50 pm (Brasília time), in the derivative, the May contract had USD 491.60/ short MT, up 2.2%, while the July contract rose 1.9% to USD 480.50. At the same time, soybeans had gains of 15.25 to 17.25 points, taking May to USD 15.34 and July to USD 15.21/bushel. "Soybean rises strongly driven by bran. There are already estimates of soybean production in Argentina below 30M MT, there will be a lack of bran over the months", informs the team at Agrinvest Commodities. These estimates continue to reflect the completely adverse weather conditions, which continue to take away, in a continuous manner, the productive potential of soybeans and also of corn in the country. The weather forecasts continue to show more days of extreme heat and extreme drought. 

Export Inspections Down on Year (Mar 6)

The USDA says that as of the week ending March 2nd, soybean export inspections continued to run ahead of the pace needed to meet projections for the current marketing year. Soybeans were pegged at 542.24K MT, a decrease of 222.98K MT on the week and 229.72K MT on the year. The top destinations were China and Japan. So far, this marketing year, soybean inspections are 42.701M MT, compared to 41.48M MT a year ago.

US Soybean Acreage to Shrink to a Four-Year Low, Gro Predicts (Mar 6)

US acres earmarked for soybeans will shrink to a four-year low this spring as growers plant more acres of corn and wheat, according to Gro’s Planting Intentions Models’ estimates. Another big drop in soybean acreage occurred in 2019, following extensive flooding in the Midwest, which contributed to a 15% drop in US soybean production from the five-year average at that time. Heading into this year’s US planting season, growers are likely to forgo planting soybeans because commodity futures prices are signaling that planting corn and wheat will be more profitable. 

Soybean Inspections (Mar 7)

Soybean assessments in W9 were reported at 54.24K MT, down from 765.22K MT the previous week and the 771.96K MT inspected a year earlier. Soybean inspections since early September are now at 42.7M MT, up from 41.5M MT in the same period last year, the USDA said.

Forecasts of an Increase in Soybean Production in the USA and Brazil in the New Season (Mar 7)

Analysts polled by the Reuters agency, on average, forecast the sown area of soybeans in the United States at the level of 88.6M acres compared to 87.5M acres in 2022. The Ministry forecasts the total soybean production in the 2023/24 season to be 4.510B bushels (based on a yield of 52.0 bushels/acre compared to 49.5 bushels/acre a year earlier) compared to 4.276B bushels in the 2022/23 season. Transitional soybean stocks at the end of the 2023/24 season are estimated at 290M bushels compared to 225M bushels at the end of the 2022/23 season. The US Ministry of Agriculture predicts the average price of soybeans in the country in the 2023/24 season at USD 12.90/bushel. The US Food and Agriculture Organization predicts domestic soybean processing at 2.310B bushels. Brazil is also predicting a record soybean harvest. Brazilian farmers will harvest a record soybean crop of 154.663M MT in 2023, up from the previous February estimate of 154.209M MT, according to StoneX.

Agricultural Futures Have Little Change in the US (Mar 7)

Soybeans and grains were little changed in overnight trading as traders Mar 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) estimates. The agency is expected to lower its outlook for soybean production in Argentina due to drought conditions that have reduced production in the South American country. Production will likely be seen by the USDA at 36.7M MT, according to a Reuters poll. That would be lower than the February forecast of 41M MT and well below last year's 43.9M MT, government data show. Reuters reported, down from the previous forecast of 47M MT and last year's production of 49.5M MT.

Soybeans Were Mixed in the US (Mar 8)

Soybeans were mixed on bull spreading. The USDA lowered the US ending stocks from 15M bushels to 210M, with a cut in crush canceled out by higher exports and the department reduced the crop estimate for Argentina because of the ongoing drought. Argentina’s crop is now seen at 33M MT, 8M MT less than the February estimate, which pulled global production lower. The USDA also lowered exports by Argentina and raised the import projection as Argentine crushers try to meet customer demand. Argentina is usually the world’s largest exporter of soybean products. Brazil’s exports were up slightly in the month and there were no changes to imports by China, but the crush guess was down slightly. The big focus continues to be the harvest of Brazil’s record crop, which is about 50% complete. A representative from Oil World told a conference in W10 that world vegetable oil supplies are expected to get much tighter during the second half of 2023 because production not meeting demand. Soybean meal futures were lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads.


Regional Agricultural Production Provides a Favorable Scenario for the Export of Paraguayan Grains (Mar 6)

Despite the fact that this national soybean campaign will not be able to reach the projected volumes during sowing, producers are expecting the yield they can obtain at the country level and take advantage of export spaces in the face of regional production affected by the weather. The commercial and financial adviser to agricultural companies that operate in Argentina, Hernán Fernández, mentioned to Valor Agro that Paraguayan soybeans "are a very important player" in the global grain market because the country expects to obtain a very good production in relation to Argentina and Uruguay. Fernández said that in Argentina there is talk of a hit in production since last season it planted 43M MT and currently estimates that it will not exceed 33M MT. 

Paraguay Would Return to Third Place in the World Ranking of Soybean Exporters (Mar 10)

In the 2022/23 campaign, Paraguay would return to 3rd place in the world ranking of soybean exporters (which it had already reached in 2018) and to 6th position as the world's largest producer, according to the March projections of the Department of Agriculture of United States (USDA). In the 2021/22 harvest, Paraguay dropped two places on both lists as a result of the historic drought that caused a break of almost 70% of production, for which it ranked as the 8th largest producer and the 6th best global exporter. According to the estimates of the Foreign Agricultural Service of the USDA, Paraguay would produce 10M MT and export 6.4M MT in the current campaign.


Crops in Trouble Due to Lack of Rainfall and High Temperatures (Mar 6)

Scarce rainfall records intensify the water deficit, while 71% of prime soybean plantations are in the critical period for the definition of yields (R3-R6). After successive days of high temperatures, 74% of the fields report a water condition between Regular and Drought, while 67% register a crop condition between Regular and Bad. 68% of the second-class cadres report a condition between Regular and Poor, exceeding 4.7 p.p. to the values reported the previous week. On the other hand, potential yields in first-class soybean are beginning to be defined, with the greatest losses registered in the Center-North of Santa Fe, North Nucleus, South Nucleus, and Center-East of Entre Ríos. Regarding adversities, reports of damage by spider mites, thrips, and isocas continue, mainly in the NEA, North Center, and South of Córdoba.

Soybean Crop Forecast in Argentina Lowered for the Fourth Time in a Row (Mar 6)

Due to the ongoing drought in Argentina, experts from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in their report lowered the forecast for soybean production in the country in 2022/23 MY for the fourth time in a row. At the same time, experts did not specify the size of the reduction. However, the forecast for the oilseed crop, according to the latest estimates, is 33.5M MT, which is significantly lower than the original forecast of 48M MT. Also, according to the results of the crop tour, it was found that 62.2% of soybean sown areas are currently affected by drought.

Argentine Companies Warn of USD 20B Loss From Drought (Mar 6)

A consortium of Argentine agricultural companies said on Mar 3 they had lowered their forecasts for this season's soybean and corn crops due to a historic drought and midsummer frosts, which they warned could cost the country more than USD 20B. Argentina, the world's largest exporter of soy oil and meal and the third largest exporter of corn, has been hit by a severe drought described by the Rosario grain exchange, in the province of Santa Fe, as the worst in 60 years. “Argentina is on track to lose more than USD 20B this year due to agricultural losses caused by a climate disaster that has affected most productive regions with drought and frost,” the CREA consortium said in a report. CREA expects a soybean harvest of 31.2M MT for the 2022/23 season, below the initial forecast of 50M MT. Corn growers are expected to produce 38.6M MT for the season, compared with an estimated 55.2M MT six months ago. 

USDA Again Cuts Argentina’s Soybean and Corn Outlook (Mar 8)

Months of severe drought conditions across Argentina’s soybean and corn growing areas forced the USDA to slash its production estimates for a third consecutive month and closely align with what Gro has been predicting since the start of the growing season in December. In its March WASDE report, the USDA cut its production estimates for Argentina soybeans by 20% from the agency’s February projections and its corn output figures by 15%. Since December, the USDA has slashed Argentina’s production outlook by 27% for corn and by 33% for soybeans. Gro’s Argentina Yield Forecast Models have for months signaled corn and soybean production would be sharply lower than USDA estimates. Argentina is the world's largest soybean meal exporter and second-largest corn exporting country.

US Government Cuts Argentine Soybean Harvest Views (Mar 9)

The soybean harvest in Argentina will be nearly 20% smaller than previously forecast as hot and dry conditions wilted crops there throughout the growing season, the US government said on Mar 8. The reduced production from that key global supplier will boost export demand for US soybeans, cutting into already thin domestic stockpiles. Argentina’s soybean harvest was pegged at 33.00M MT, according to the US Agriculture Department’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. That was down from the February forecast for 41.00M MT. Analysts had been expecting the report to show an Argentine soybean harvest of 36.65M MT, according to the average of estimates given in a Reuters poll. 

The Worst Harvest of the Last 15 Campaigns (Mar 9)

Argentina suffers from an unprecedented climatic scenario in modern agriculture. With a new cut of 7.5 MT, the soybean production is updated to 27 MT. In this way, it is estimated that 45% of the production expected at the beginning of the campaign has already been lost. The figure for March leaves the 2022/23 cycle as the worst harvest of the last 15 campaigns, even falling well below 2008/09 (31.8 MT). With no change in the climate scenario in sight, new cuts are being warned. The number of hectares that are not receiving treatments against weeds and pests and the hectares that have dried up in the last three weeks is alarming. This is very marked in second-rate soybeans, but a rapid deterioration is also seen in first-rate soybeans. Between 2 and 3 M ha in soybeans may remain unharvested The area planted with soybeans is estimated at 2.6 M ha that could not be harvested in 2022/23. This is a new record that marks the brutal drought that Argentina continues to suffer. The lost area would double the previous record, that of 2017/18, when 1.3 M ha would not have been harvested. 

Rosario and Buenos Aires Stock Exchanges Estimate Argentina’s Soy Crop at Less Than 30M MT (Mar 9)

The worst soybean crop in 20 years in Argentina. This was the news that the Rosario Stock Exchange brought on Mar 9 by informing a new cut in its estimate for 2022/23 production to 27M MT. The new number indicates yet another loss in Argentine production of 7.5M MT. And with this break, the harvest is even smaller than 2008/09, of 31.8M MT, which also suffered from a very aggressive drought, according to historical data on the exchange. However, when compared with the record of the National Secretariat of Agriculture, this is the lowest harvest in the country since the 2000/01 season. The exchange also informed that the effects of the drought and the very intense heat also resulted in a record loss of area in Argentina cultivated with soy, which reaches 2.6M ha. This is an area lost that is three times the amount lost last year and twice as much as was lost since the last major drought in 2017/18. 

2022/23 Argentina Soybeans Continue to Deteriorate (Mar 10)

It was another hot and generally dry week in W9 in Argentina. That coupled with the effects of the frost several weeks ago led to another downgrade of the soybean crop. The crop is now rated just 2% good/excellent and 67% poor/very poor. Any rainfall in W10 will be focused across the southern production areas. Limited rainfall across central Argentina will maintain significant stress on late-planted crops. High temperatures and a lack of rainfall continue to impact the soybeans where approximately two-thirds of the crop is in the critical reproductive phase. Last week, some cities registered temperatures as high as 40°C (104°F). The city of Buenos Aires hit 38°C (101°F) last week breaking the record set in 1952.


The Expert Predicts a Soybean Boom, and a Future for Corn in Ukraine (Mar 12)

There may be a "soy boom" in Ukraine in 2023. Given that it does not require fertilizers and is currently more expensive than sunflower, the area under cultivation can increase significantly. This is written by with reference to the words of Viktor Sheremeta, the head of the FG "Hercules". According to his forecast, there may be a soybean boom this year. At the same time, if there is no established export and the area increases, this will cause the price to fall. "If we look at the price policy over the past three years, the prices of almost all crops have decreased, while the prices of soybeans, on the contrary, have increased. That's why soy looks attractive today. If sunflower used to be the most expensive, now it is losing its position compared to soybeans," the farmer said. As Viktor Sheremeta noted, although in general farmers will sow more soybeans this year, at the "Hercules" farm they are still betting on corn. 


Soybean Imports by China Break Record in the 1st Quarter With Purchases for Inventory (Mar 7)

China, the world's biggest buyer of oilseeds, imported a record volume of soybeans in the first two months of the year as buyers stockpiled in anticipation of healthy demand and concerns over a delayed harvest in Brazil. January-February imports reached 16.17M MT, customs data showed, up 16.1% from a year earlier. The volume for the two months combined is the highest since at least 2008, according to Reuter's filings of customs data. China's General Administration of Customs combines data from the first two months of the year to smooth out distortions caused by the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which fell this year in late January. China imported much smaller volumes of soybeans in previous decades, making it unlikely that imports before 2008 were greater than this year's level.

China Forecast Maintains Estimate for Soybean and Corn in 2022/23 Season (Mar 8)

China still maintained the soybean crop projection at 20.29M MT in 2022/23 compared to 16.4M MT last season. The expectation for corn was also maintained at 277.2M MT, versus 272.55M MT in the previous year. Corn sales are accelerating as the weather warms.

The State Has Added Domestic Soybean Purchases and Storage in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia in China (Mar 10)

Since soybeans went on the market in the fall of 2022, affected by factors such as soybean planting expansion and production increase, weak downstream consumption, and the new crown epidemic, market purchase prices have gone up and down. Soybean prices in some major production areas in the Northeast have fallen more, and sales pressure has increased. While promoting market-based acquisitions and strengthening the docking services of soybean production and sales, departments and localities are actively doing a good job in policy-based purchasing and storage of soybeans, playing an important role in reserve regulation, stabilizing soybean market expectations, and ensuring farmers' income from growing grain. Recently, according to relevant national Arranged by the department, China Grain Group Co., Ltd. launched a plan to purchase domestically produced soybeans in 2022 in the two main soybean-producing areas of Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia. The purchase price of domestic soybeans in the new season at Hailun, Nehe, and Hulunbeier warehouses is USD 0.40/catty (CNY 2.775) (third-class national standard, not limited to protein content), which is about 5 cents higher than before.


Anapo Announces a Good Harvest and a Possible Increase in Productivity With Better Conditions in Bolivia (Mar 6)

"The harvest is beautiful," the Association of Oilseed and Wheat Producers (Anapo) had announced, something that its president, Fidel Flores, confirmed on Mar 3, who remarked that "the weather, the rainfall is accompanying us and we hope to have a good harvest in this campaign”. 99% of soybeans are produced in the department of Santa Cruz and according to figures from Anapo, the planting of this product reaches more than 1M ha in the summer season. Flores also stressed the importance of soy for the national economy taking into account that in 2022 it brought more than USD 2B in foreign currency to the country, due to good international prices and "the effort that producers put in to maximize returns."


The Price of Non-GMO Soybeans in Ghana Increased 10% MoM in March (Mar 7)

The farm gate price for non-GMO soybeans in Ghana increased by 10% MoM in March 2023. As of the beginning of March 2023, the farm gate price was quoted at USD 50/100kg compared to USD 45.10/100kg in February. Farm gate prices are expected to be relatively stable throughout March.

South Africa

South Africa’s 2023/24 Soybean Supply and Demand Estimates (Mar 6)

The total supply of soybeans in South Africa is projected at 2.78M MT for the 2023/24 marketing season. This includes an opening stock level (on 1 March 2023) of 167.44K MT, domestic commercial deliveries of 2.6M MT, 4K MT of soybean imports for South Africa, and a surplus of 5K MT. The total demand (domestic plus exports) for soybeans is projected at 2.31M MT. This includes 23K MT processed for human consumption, 210K MT processed for animal (full fat) feed, 1.75M MT for crushed (oil and oilcake), 200MT withdrawn by producers, 150MT released to end consumers, 10K MT seed for planting purposes, and a balancing figure of 250MT (net receipts and net dispatches). A quantity of 320K MT of soybeans is estimated for exports for the 2023/24 marketing season.

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