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W10: Weekly Sunflower Oil Update

Updated Mar 14, 2023
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what happened during W10 in the global sunflower landscape. In summary, vegetable oil prices fell 3.2% globally in February compared to January due to reduced prices for palm, soybean, sunflower, and rapeseed oils. In Ukraine, sunflower prices continue to decline on W10, with sunflower rates below USD 500 DAP shipping to Romania and Bulgaria. Meanwhile in Russia, the forecast for the export of sunflower oil has been increased to 4MMT, which is 900K MT more than the season of 2021/22. Lastly, record-breaking plant production in Turkey occurred in 2022, with sunflower production spiking.


Global Wheat Sellers and Sunflower Buyers on the Exchange Cut Offers

For another week, the prices of the majority of the major grain contracts on the international stock markets fell. The price of crude sunflower oil on the Rotterdam Stock Exchange, which has been trading sinusoidally for some time, has continued to follow this fluctuating curve and has dropped as much as USD 55 in W10 to USD 1,130/MT. 

World Prices of Vegetable Oils Decreased by 3.2% MoM In February

Vegetable oil prices fell 3.2% globally in February compared to January. Its average value in February was 135.9 points, which is the lowest level since the start of 2021. Reduced prices for palm, soybean, sunflower, and rapeseed oils were the cause of the index's ongoing decline. Due to plentiful exportable supply globally, as in the cases of sunflower and rapeseed oils, world prices remained low, the index reveals.


Sunflower Prices Continue to Decline on March 10 in Ukraine

With shipping to Romania and Bulgaria, customers in W10 have already confirmed sunflower rates below USD 500 DAP. The oil complex is in a downturn, and this pattern is expected to continue for some time. With 160K MT, sunflower exports from Ukraine in February were at their lowest level in the previous six months. USD 490–500/MT is the DAP Bulgaria (mon/center) price. DAP Romania (centre) costs USD 480–490/MT, the price to DAP Hungary (centre) is USD 510–520/MT, and FOB Izmail/Reni (port) is around USD 450-460/MT.

Sunflower Prices Continue to Fall in the Main Markets in Eastern Europe

Sunflower prices in Eastern Europe's major marketplaces fell further in W9, and in certain regions, they have dropped by about USD 60/MT during the previous two weeks. The price drop for sunflower oil does not give rise to more hope for a rise in sunflower prices. About 8MMT of sunflower remains are present in Ukraine. In Bulgaria, DAP (delivery on site) prices range from USD 500-520/MT. DAP Hungary is USD 510–520/MT, DAP Romania (centre) is USD 500-510/MT, whereas FOB Ishmael or Reni ports are USD 470–475/MT.

Should Ukraine Exports Sunflower or Not?

The world's largest exporter of sunflower oil (SFOil), Ukraine, holds the top spot on the global market. Yet, logistical issues with the sea shipments of commodities resulted in a dramatic rise in sunflower exports. Estimates indicate that the current 2022/23 season could result in significant financial losses for SFOil farmers due to large sunflower exports at 2.2 MMT and a low 2022 sunflower crop. The domestic market would have a deficit of sunflowers as a result of high sunflower exports. It is expected that, from February to August 2023, Ukraine may be on the way to losing its leading position in the global export of sunflower oil.

Wheat, Corn and Sunflower Oil Are the Leaders of Ukrainian Exports

The top 30 Ukrainian exports in February featured several agricultural products. Taras Kachka, the deputy minister of the economy for Ukraine, reported this. Wheat exports brought in USD 322M, sunflower oil USD 419M, and corn USD 699M, respectively. 


The USDA Raised the Forecast for Exports of Sunflower Oil From Russia

Analysts raised the forecast for the export of sunflower oil from Russia to 4MMT, which is 900K MT more than the season of 2021/22 and 150K MT more than the prior projection. A favorable export environment, such as the absence of oil export duties from October to February and the high amount of oils produced in Russia during this time, contributed significantly to the season's first half's positive dynamics.

South Africa

South Africa’s 2023/24 Sunflower Seed Supply and Demand Estimate

The total supply of sunflower seed in South Africa is estimated at 853,550MT for the 2023/24 marketing season. This includes an opening stock level (on 1 March 2023) of 62.29K MT, domestic commercial deliveries of 775.26K MT, sunflower seed imports of 7K MT for South Africa, and a surplus of 9K MT.

The total demand (domestic plus exports) for sunflower seed is projected at 791.55K MT. This includes 1.6K MT processed for human consumption, 6K MT processed for animal consumption, 780K MT for the crush (oil and oilcake), 1K MT withdrawn by producers, 50MT released to end consumers, 2K MT seed for planting purposes and a balancing figure of 700MT (net receipts and net dispatches). A quantity of 200MT is estimated for exports for the 2023/24 marketing season.


Records Were Broken in Crop Production

Record-breaking plant production in Turkey occurred in 2022. Items like corn, sunflowers, and cotton became the types of products that saw a spike in output. Production of sunflowers increased by 6%, from 2.41 MMT in 2021 to 2.55 MMT in 2022. The amount of oil exported grew by 29% to 596K MT.


Germany Overcomes Shortage of Sunflower Oil Caused by Conflict in Ukraine

The shortage of sunflower oil brought on by the conflict in Ukraine has been resolved in Germany. Ukraine is also exporting sunflower oil, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds, and prices for these products are practically back to pre-war levels. Numerous food producers have converted to multi-vegetable oil blends or altered the recipe to use rapeseed instead of sunflower seeds.

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