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W11: Weekly Canola & Rapeseed Update

Updated Mar 21, 2023
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what happened during W11 in the global canola and rapeseed landscape. In summary, global oilseed prices, including canola and rapeseed, decreased in W11 on global stock exchanges. As a result of record canola crops in Australia and Canada, as well as a good crop in the EU, rapeseed quotes on the Paris Stock Exchange fell to their lowest level since September 2022. The projected 4.23MMT winter rapeseed crop in Germany for 2023 will be down 1.1% from the crop harvested in the summer. Lastly, in India, the weather in W11 threatens winter crops, including rapeseed.


Decrease in Oilseed Prices on World Stock Exchanges

On March 14, the price of rapeseed in a contract for delivery in May on the Paris Stock Exchange decreased by 0.5%, at USD 520.69/MT, 46% less than the previous year. Canola from Canada cost USD 568.11/MT yesterday after falling 1.3% on the Winnipeg Stock Exchange, and the price has fallen by 31.0% YoY.

Global Oilseeds Prices Continued to Drop on March 2023

As the price of oilseeds continued to decline overnight, the MATIF Mar 23 finished down USD 2.66/MT (EUR 2.50/MT) and the ICE Mar 23 closed down USD 7.45/MT (CAD 10.20/MT). An additional factor that affected oilseed prices was the 4% overnight drop in crude oil, which hit a nine-week low. Australian canola prices followed the worldwide market and are currently selling at USD 449.70/MT, a decrease of USD 38.75/MT from W10.


Canola Supplies From Australia Continue to Put Pressure on Canola Prices in the EU

Due to a decline in worldwide demand for vegetable oils as a result of lower oil prices and an increase in supply on the European market as a result of record canola crops in Australia and Canada as well as a good crop in the EU, rape quotes on the Paris Stock Exchange fell to their lowest level since September 2022. Canola futures in Winnipeg declined by 8.3% to USD 553/MT in March, while May rapeseed futures in Paris fell by 9.4% to USD 518.5/MT.

 Australia’s January Canola Exports Drop 6% From December

Canola exports from Australia decreased by 6% MoM, from 763,347MT in December to 715,098MT in January, according to the most recent export data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The record for canola exports set in March 2022 of 854,950MT stands despite the December total being lowered by 14% from the record 883,885MT reported last month. By far the largest market was Germany, with 238,244MT, followed by Belgium at 130,726MT and Bangladesh at 105,200MT. In W10, ABARES released its March Agricultural Outlook and Australian Crop reports, which included its initial projection for the crop of 5.4MMT in 2023/24, a decrease of 35% from the record 8.3MMT cultivated in 2022/23.


USDA Increased the Estimate of Rapeseed Exports From Ukraine in the Current Season to 3.1MMT

The Ukrainian production and exports of sunflower and other oilseeds are expected to increase, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in 2022/23 MY. The experts raised their projections of rapeseed exports for the current season by 250,000MT to 3.1MMT.

In Zhytomyr Oblast, Damage to Winter Rapeseed by Alternariosis Was Detected, in 5% Of Plants

Winter rape and winter cereals were in a satisfactory state of overwintering as of March 9 in the Zhytomyr region. Up to 5% of plants were impacted by Alternaria during the survey of winter rapeseed crops (with a total survey area of 100 hectares), and 0.1% of those plants developed the disease. 10% of the area has been damaged overall. Snow mold affects 0.2% of plants, affecting an area of 8% in total.


Drought Stymies Bulgaria Oilseeds Yields

Due to decreased yields from the summer heat and drought, Bulgaria's oilseed output will remain unchanged at 2.4 MMT in the marketing year 2022/23, even though 8% more area will be harvested than in the previous season. Rapeseed output is anticipated to be 299,250MT in 2022/23, which is 20% less than in 2021/22, while sunflower production increased to 2.077MMT, which is roughly 4% more than in the previous season. Although rapeseed has grown successfully so far, spring growth, when the crop's water requirements will increase, poses a major risk.


German 2023 Wheat and Rapeseed Crops Forecast to Fall

The projected 4.23MMT winter rapeseed crop in Germany for 2023 will be down 1.1% from the crop harvested in the summer. Reduced planted area, increased competition for land with other uses, and rising temperatures are the primary causes of the anticipated reduction in crop production.


The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia Announced a Further Expansion of the Area Under Rapeseed and Soybeans

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture now forecasts additional growth in the rapeseed and soybean sectors for 2023. Processing saw a considerable increase in momentum as a result of the expansion of the raw material base. In 2022, the production of sunflower, soybean, and rapeseed oils totaled more than 5.9MMT (+14.3%), 825,100MT (+16.2%), and 998,500MT (+35.6%), respectively.

Russia in 2022 Significantly Increased the Production of Vegetable Oils

Russia produced more vegetable oils in 2022 as a result of a record-breaking oilseed harvest, including 35.6% more rapeseed oil, or 998,500 MT. The primary oilseeds were harvested at a record 29.1MMT last year, 17% more than in 2021, with rapeseed accounting for 4.5MMT of that total. (1.6 times more).

Sowing Campaign in North Ossetia Starts in April

The Republic of North Ossetia-Alania is still getting ready to sow seeds in the spring for the April 2023 harvest. Winter crops have been fed on around 17,000 hectares so far, including 4,000 hectares of winter rapeseed. Mid-April, or whenever the stable soil temperature of the arable layer reaches at least +8 C, is the anticipated start of the sowing campaign in North Ossetia.


Weather Threatens Indian Winter Crops, Including Rapeseed Just Before Harvesting

The weather service in India has issued a warning that the central, northern, and western regions may experience additional rain and hailstorms over the course of the next ten days. Production could be affected, which would increase food inflation. The largest consumer of edible oils in the world might be forced to acquire more palm, soy, and sunflower oils as a result of decreased rapeseed production.

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