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W11: Weekly Sunflower Oil Update

Updated Mar 20, 2023
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what happened during W10 in the global sunflower landscape. In summary, the global sunflower seed crop will total 53M MT in the fiscal year 2022/23, a 9% decrease. The price of crude sunflower oil on the Rotterdam Stock Exchange dropped by USD 75 in W11 to trade at USD 1,055/MT. Similarly, Black Sea sunflower oil prices fell 15% in the past two months to 2.5 year lows. In Ukraine, sunflower seed exports achieved a new record high of 1.54M MT at the start of the 2022/23 season. Meanwhile in Russia, 4M MT of sunflower oil will be exported during this season (September 2022–August 2023). Lastly, Bulgaria imported a record 429,000MT of sunflowers from Ukraine between September 2022 and February 2023.


Oilseed Sunflower Prices on the Global Stock Exchange Sank

The price of crude sunflower oil on the Rotterdam Stock Exchange has been fluctuating in a sinusoidal manner for a while now and has dropped by USD 75 in W11 to trade at USD 1,055/MT. Quotes in the "grain" section of the " Sofia Stock Exchange" JSC are significantly lower than they were in W10. The greatest price decline was seen in oilseed sunflowers, around USD 65.93 to USD 439.55/MT. Prices do not include VAT.

Declining Sunflower Seed Crop in the World Is Expected

According to Oil World, the global sunflower seed crop will total 53 MMT in the fiscal year 2022/23, a 9% decrease. Data show that it has fallen to 9.5MMT in the European Union, while it is slightly greater in Russia at 15.7MMT, and in Ukraine, the harvest is significantly reduced by 34% to 11MMT.

Globally, the Black Sea sunflower oil prices fall 15% past two months to 2.5 year lows

As a result of the vegetable oil market's bearish outlook and the banking system's crisis, sunflower oil prices in the Black Sea area have dropped 15% over the last two months and are now at their lowest point in the past 2.5 years. According to data, prices for sunflower oil in the biggest exporter of the commodity fell on all bases of delivery and on Thursday stood at USD 990/MT CIF Turkey and USD 980/MT CIF Varna, arriving in April. Sunoil spot offers dropped by USD 125/mt in the previous two months to USD 900/mt CPT on Thursday, their lowest level since the end of October 2020.


Ukrainian Sunflower Exports Calmed the Edible Oil Market

Ukraine is still only able to export a small amount of sunflower oil due to the invasion, but producers are shipping raw seeds, which has stabilized the world market for edible oil. When compared to the 612,000MT exported in January 2022, just before the conflict, Ukraine's exports of sunflower oil in January were down significantly to 347,000MT. Ukraine is the second-largest producer of sunflowers in the world after Russia, and the country's suspension of shipments during the invasion drove up the cost of sunflower oil and other cooking oils.

Sunflower Prices in Ukraine Fell by USD 25/MT in W11

Over W11, sunflower prices decreased by about USD 25/MT. Depending on the delivery area and sunflower quality, DAP traded in the range of USD 450-470/MT in the direction of Eastern Europe. Prices to DAP Bulgaria (Mon/Center) are around USD 465-475/MT, CIF Bulgaria (Mon/Center) is around USD 450-455/MT, DAP Hungary (center) at around USD 470-49O/MT, and FOB Ishmael/Reni (port) at USD 440-450/MT.

An Expert Forecast on Ukrainian Sunflower Oil Exports Has Been Published

A total of 3.95 MMT of sunflower oil, 3.3 MMT of sunflower meal, and 2.65 MMT of sunflower seeds will all be available for export by Ukraine in the years 2022/23. Analysts predict that in 2022/2023, Ukraine will produce 10.4 MMT of sunflowers. Sunflower oil output is expected to be 4.386 MMT during that time.

Ukrainian Sunflower Oil Exports Is a Hostage of the Grain Corridor

Beginning in December 2022, SFO prices have been falling, falling even lower than soybean oil prices. There are 118 mid-size and large crusher factories in Ukraine; about 20% of them are not in use because of damage and security risks. Ukraine exported 69% and 63% of its potential sunflower seed (SFS) and sunflower oil (SFO) exports, respectively. 

Ukraine Set a New Historical Record in Sunflower Exports

During the start of the 2022/23 season (September–February), Ukraine's sunflower seed exports achieved a new record high of 1.54MMT. Almost 80% of the oilseed exports go to EU nations, and 19% go to Turkey. With regard to nations, Bulgaria leads imports at 429,000MT of sunflower seed with a share in total imports of 28%, and Romania at 406,000MT, with an import share of 26%.


Kuban Counts on Its Own Varieties and Hybrids

The import of soybean, corn, and sunflower seeds, for which the Russian Federation is largely dependent on imports, would be subject to quotas starting in 2024.  Many foreign manufacturers began informing their Russian clients in early February 2023 that they would no longer be accepting orders for sunflower hybrids and that prices would be changing. Nonetheless, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture stated that there are no risks for the seeding campaign even if Western seed suppliers choose to fully leave Russia. The National Seed Alliance agrees that the issue with sunflower seeds is not urgent at the moment. There will be plenty of their products for the two major producing areas, the Black Earth Area and the Southern Federal District.

Sunflower oil output in Russia increased by 14% in 2022

At 5.9MMT, the output of sunflower oil climbed by 14% in Russia. Also, rapeseed oil increased by about a third, to almost 1MMT. The growth in the production of vegetable oils was due to the oilseed harvest in the amount of 29.1MMT.  China, Belarus, and Kazakhstan are the other top consumers of oil exports from Russia, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.

Russia in 2022 Significantly Increased the Production of Vegetable Oils

Almost 5.9MMT of sunflower oil was produced in 2022, 14.3% more than in 2021. A record 29.1MMT of the major oilseeds were harvested in 2022, which is 17% more than in 2021. Harvest volume increased by 4.5% to 16.4MMT when sunflowers were included. A rise in output volumes was ensured by increasing the yield. Another factor is the expansion of acreage.

The USDA Raised the Estimate of Sunflower Oil Exports From Russia This Season to 4MMT

According to its March report, the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA) predicted that Russia will export 4MMT of sunflower oil during this season (September 2022–August 2023). This is 900,000 MT more than the previous season. The forecast for February was 3.85MMT. Higher export rates are the main reason for the increase in March, according to experts.


If There Is No Precipitation, There Will Be a Loss of Harvest in Sunflower

About 50% of Turkey's sunflower oil demands are satisfied in Thrace, where farmers preparing for the sowing season are concerned about a drought. In the near future, there could be issues with the product or issues with production. It was dry during the months of November, December, January, and February, when Turkiye should have had the most rain. There wasn't any snow. There was no snowfall. Even in provinces with heavy snowfall in other years throughout the country, there was not much snowfall compared to other years. 

Turkey Will Reduce Oilseeds Production by 17%

According to USDA predictions, Turkey's gross oilseed harvest will decrease in the seasons 2023/24. The harvest in the region will amount to around 3MMT, down 17% from the predicted level in 2022/23 MY, per the current projections. Sunflower seed output in 2023/24 MY may be 1.6MMT, which is a 300,000MT decrease from 2022. The potential for a severe drought in Turkey could have an additional impact on the total production estimates.

Turkish Grain Board Cancels the Tender for the Purchase 48K MT of Crude Sunflower Oil

The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) canceled the purchase of approximately 48K MT of crude sunflower oil, made by tender in W10. European trade sources reported that TMO found the prices too high, and no purchases were made for the tender. The winning tender bids were USD 1,173/MT and USD 1,159/MT CNF Iskenderun. Since TMO tender purchases are subject to final approval, amounts may change or be canceled.


Sunflower Production in Goiás Should Increase 65.1% In the 2022/2023 Harvest

In Goiás, the production of sunflowers should experience the most percentage growth among grain crops in the 2022/23 harvest. Goiás's crops, which are now in the sowing stage, are expected to produce 36,000MT of oilseed, an increase of 65.1% in terms of volume produced in the 21/22 Crop. The estimate of the state's overall grain production is also increased in the latest report. A total of 31.7MMT is now expected, compared to 31.5MMT in the last round, which was announced in February in comparison to the previous season.


Germany Overcomes the Shortage of Sunflower Oil

The shortfall of sunflower oil brought on by Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already been resolved in Germany. The amount of sunflower, rapeseed, and sunflower oil exported from Ukraine has nearly returned to pre-conflict levels, and it is still making its way to Germany. Several food producers have shifted to combining various vegetable oils or altered the recipe by substituting canola for sunflower.


India Will Import Another 200,000MT of Sunflower Oil by the End of March

India will import 1.5MMT of duty-free sunflower oil for the current fiscal year, which ends on March 31, which is 500,000MT less than the quota allotted by the government. Sunflower oil is purchased by India, the largest vegetable oil importer in the world, from the Black Sea region, which produces 60% of the world's sunflower oil and exports 76% of it. The country has already imported 1.3MMT of duty-free sunflower oil in FY 2022/23, and by March 31 it can purchase an additional 200,000MT.


Drought Stymies Bulgaria Oilseeds Yields

Due to decreased yields from the summer heat and drought, Bulgaria's oilseed production will remain unchanged at 2.4 MMT in marketing year 2022/23 even though 8% more area will be harvested than the previous season. Rapeseed output is anticipated to be 299,250MT in 2022/23, which is 20% less than in 2021/22, while sunflower production increased to 2.077MMT, which is roughly 4% more than in the previous season. With a 40% share of all EU imports, Bulgaria has risen to the leading position among importers of competitively priced sunflower seeds from Ukraine. With 47% of the EU's overall exports of sunflower oil and 66% of the EU's exports of sunflower meal, Bulgaria now holds the top spot.

Bulgaria Breaks Records for Sunflower Imports From Ukraine

Bulgaria imported a record 429,000MT of sunflowers from Ukraine between September 2022 and February 2023. Our nation tops the list of importers in the European Union with this amount, followed by Romania with 406,000MT in second place. Analysts report that a record 1.54MMT of sunflower seeds were exported from Ukraine in the first half of the current 2022/23 marketing year, with 80% of those bound for the EU and 19% for Turkey.

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