W13: Weekly Poultry & Egg Update

Published Apr 4, 2023
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what happened during W13 in the global poultry and egg landscape. In summary, FAO data indicates that Brazilian chicken meat prices appreciated by 28%, while North American prices appreciated by just over 15% in the two years between February 2021 and February 2023. The EFSA recommends a 72% reduction in the number of birds on farms, which will lead to the loss of most of the European poultry sector. The average price of eggs in March in Europe was slightly higher than the average price of poultry, a result of the avian influenza epidemic. The FGV estimates that Brazil risks losing USD 2.67B if avian influenza enters the country. Tridge’s data analysis indicates that prices of chicken in Poland decreased by 7% WoW due to higher supply which is projected to increase by 1.5% YoY in 2023. Lastly, the national egg-feed price ratio in W13 in China was 3.03, up 2.36% MoM with egg prices expected to rise further.


Global: Brazil and USA; Evolution of the Price of Chicken Meat in the International Market (Mar 30)

FAO data on the evolution of chicken meat prices in the international market indicate that, in the two years between February 2021 and February 2023, the Brazilian product appreciated by practically 28%, while the North American appreciated by just over 15%. It is true that, after the historic peak reached in the middle of last year, the prices of the two main world exporters of chicken meat have been in retreat. But there, too, Brazil's loss (recession of 14.8% concerning the peak reached in July 2022) has been lower than that of the USA, whose average price, despite a slight reversal in February, shows a drop of practically, 20%. In the average of these two years, chicken meat from Brazil was traded for a value close to 45% higher than that of the USA, a difference mainly due to the diversified Brazilian mix. But even this difference has shown significant differences in recent months. In other words, if until last September the differential in favor of Brazil did not reach 42%, in the last five months it has risen to around 58.5%.

Europe: Most of the Poultry Sector, Doomed to Disappear as Europe Demands That the Number of Birds on Farms Be Reduced by 72% (Mar 27)

The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) published its scientific opinion on broilers and laying hens based on a particularly limited mandate on animal welfare established by the European Commission. The EFSA opinion contains unprecedented recommendations which, if applied in these terms, would simply lead to the loss of most of the European poultry sector, both meat and egg production by forcing a 72% reduction in the production of birds on farms. Among the main recommendations put forward by EFSA, the most shocking is the proposal to reduce the stocking density of conventional broilers to a maximum of 11 kg/m². In other words, if implemented, this would mean that the EU will ask conventional poultry producers to make significant investments in farms, while the number of birds on farms will have to be reduced by 72%. Similar recommendations are made in the EFSA opinion for laying hens.

Malaysia: Chicken Supply Adequate Until Hari Raya Puasa, Says Domestic Trade Minister (Mar 27)

The supply of chicken across Malaysia is sufficient to last until the Hari Raya Puasa celebrations at the end of April, said Minister of Domestic Trade and Cost of Living Salahuddin Ayub. He said that based on data from the authorities, consumers in Malaysia need not worry about the supply of chicken. Mr. Salahuddin said that enforcement officers from his ministry have been instructed to tighten the monitoring of chicken prices throughout the month of Ramadan until after Hari Raya Puasa. According to Bernama, local media reported an almost 30% shortage of fresh chickens in the market. This has caused an increase in the price of poultry. The price of chicken at the retail level was reported to have risen to USD 2.50/kg (RM11) since the start of Ramadan and is forecast to rise to USD 2.61 (RM11.50) in the near future. The demand for chicken is expected to increase due to the upcoming Hari Raya Puasa festive period, celebrated by Muslims who make up the majority in Malaysia. 

Data Analysis: Chicken Prices in Pernambuco, Brazil, Remain Depressed on Increased Chicken Production (Mar 27)

Chicken wholesale prices in Pernambuco, Brazil, have remained mostly flat at USD 1.95/kg (BRL 9.90) as of late March. Current prices remain depressed on the back of increased chicken production in Brazil and easing domestic demand. According to IBGE data, chicken slaughter in Brazil during the final trimester of 2022, in overall weight, increased by 3.5% QoQ and 4.7% YoY. Total slaughter in 2022 was the highest on record for a year. Moreover, as prices for beef and pork have been declining as well, demand for chicken has eased in favor of those alternatives for protein. In the upcoming weeks, chicken prices might see a small rebound as beef prices strengthen due to the lifting of a ban to export to China. This would reduce the domestic supply of beef, lift prices domestically, and increase demand for cheaper protein, such as chicken. Also, increasing chicken production remains a bearish factor. However, there is a latent risk of avian flu sweeping through many countries, including several neighbors of Brazil. But for now, Brazil is free of the disease but on high alert. Avian flu implies production curtailments, which are bullish for prices.

Brazil: Risk of Losing USD 2.57B With the Entry of Influenza Into the Country (Mar 27)

Under the daily threat of Avian Influenza, since several recent cases of the disease were detected in neighboring countries, such as Argentina, Bolivia, Uruguay, and others, Brazil has been mobilizing a task force to avoid the worst of scenarios. The task force organized by Mapa, which in addition to the Federal Agricultural Tax Auditors, involves several actors, mainly from the private sector and state veterinary services, is already in action to avoid not only health impacts but also economic ones. A study carried out by the FGV estimates that if the disease enters the country, the largest exporter of chicken, and directly affects the industrial system, the monetary loss would be USD 2.67B (BRL 13.5B). The researcher at the FGV Agro Agribusiness Center, Talita Priscila Pinto, points out that there would also be a loss of 46K jobs, not only within the production chain but also within other chains that are related to the sale of poultry, such as input production.

Brazil: Chicken Prices in a Mixed Field, With an Increase for the Bird Wholesale and on the Farm in São Paulo (Mar 28)

Prices on the chicken market walked in different directions on Mar 28, with highs for the bird wholesale and on the farm in São Paulo, and a fall for chilled and frozen. Live chicken has been recording small increases from February to this part of March. The demand for poultry meat had a slight improvement, according to the organ, which resulted in an increase in animal prices in the domestic market. In São Paulo, according to Scot Consultoria, poultry on the farm increased by 2.04%, reaching USD 0.99/kg (R$5.00), while poultry wholesale rose by 2.14%, reaching USD 1.22/kg (R$6.20). In the case of live animals, São Paulo had no price reference. In Paraná, the price was stable at USD 0.97/kg (R$4.92), as well as in Santa Catarina, costing USD 0.85/kg (R$4.30). According to information from Cepea/Esalq, referring to Mar 27, frozen chicken suffered a loss of 5.31%, with a value of USD 1.34/kg (R$ 6.77), while chilled poultry dropped 9.54%, closing at USD 1.29/kg (BRL 6.54).

Brazil: Partial, Chicken Meat Shipments in March Already Surpass Numbers From January, February, and a Year Ago (Mar 28)

In January and February, a total of 388K MT and 373K MT of chicken were shipped respectively. In current March, with five working days left before the end of the month, shipments of fresh chicken meat stood at 397K MT. Maintaining the current performance, they should exceed 500K MT, a monthly volume unprecedented in the history of the sector. The total recorded in the past week (19 to 25, five business days) suffered a slight deceleration in volume. Even so, it remained at a level that represented, for the first 18 working days of the month, daily shipments even higher than 22K MT, also a record in chicken meat exports. The average price also continues to present a slight deceleration, as the value reached so far, USD 1,874.80/MT, 0.68% below that registered in February. But it remains about 3% above the registered a year ago, in this same month. Even with five working days left until the end of the month, the accumulated in the quarter, just over 1.15M MT, is more than 10% above what was achieved in the first three months of 2022, representing a new record for the first quarter of the year.

Brazil: French Polynesia Opens Market for Chicken Meat From Brazil (Mar 29)

Health authorities in French Polynesia have published the official authorization for imports of chicken meat from Brazil, according to information provided by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock to the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA). According to the publication that took place in W12, all slaughterhouses that today ship to the European Union will be able to export chicken meat to the overseas territory located in the South Pacific Ocean. According to the president of ABPA, Ricardo Santin, sales should serve the food service market in the country, especially for the wide hotel chain in the country, which has tourism as its main economic sector.

Brazil: Banning Fairs and Exhibitions With Birds to Avoid Bird Flu (Mar 30)

Brazil, the world's largest producer, and exporter of chicken meat banned on Mar 30 the holding of fairs, exhibitions, tournaments, and other events with crowds of birds, in a measure aimed at avoiding possible entry into the country and the spread of the so-called bird flu. The preventive measure, applicable throughout the country initially for 90 days, was adopted by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock due to the registration of new cases of the disease in countries of the region, such as Argentina, Uruguay, Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Colombia, some of which have already declared a health emergency and slaughtered thousands of birds. 

Brazil: Chicken Meat Value Drops, but High in the First Fortnight Guarantees Advance of the Monthly Average (Mar 31)

The recent devaluations of chicken meat did not prevent the advance of the monthly average for protein. According to collaborators at Cepea, the slight improvement in demand in the first half of the month ensured an increase in average prices in March. Wholesale in Greater São Paulo, frozen whole chicken registers an average of USD 1.34/kg (R$ 6.78) in this part of March (until the 29th), an increase of 1.9% compared to February. The chilled product, in turn, has been sold in the São Paulo region at an average price of USD 1.33/kg (R$ 6.75) in March, an increase of 1.7% compared to the previous month. In the cuts market, the frozen breast was the one that most appreciated in March in the wholesale of Greater São Paulo, 6.4%, with the kilo of the product quoted, on average, at USD 1.64 (R$ 8.31) this month.

Data Analysis: Prices of Chicken in Poland Have Decreased by 7% WoW on Higher Supply (Mar 27)

The wholesale price of chicken in Poland has been trading lower at USD 1.97/kg (EUR 1.8), a 7% WoW decrease. The price has been fluctuating since late February 2023. Because wild bird migrations in the spring occur in March, this time frame is linked to an increased risk of avian influenza. This season still carries a significant risk of avian influenza. Despite this, there have been fewer disease outbreaks than in previous weeks. Moreover, higher production of Polish chicken has led the price to go down. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, poultry meat production in Poland is projected to increase by 1.5% YoY to 3.05M MT in 2023. The price will normalize in the following months if Poland can mitigate the bird flu. Restrictions on Polish chicken exports in some regions are also applied to ensure domestic market supply.

Poland: Chicken Meat Market (Mar 31)

In W3 of March in 2023, domestic suppliers for broiler chickens received USD 1.36/kg (PLN 5.84), less by USD 0.0047/kg (PLN 0.02) than in the previous week, but more by 2% than a month ago. Carcasses of gutted chickens with necks were sold at USD 2.18/kg (PLN 9.33), which is 1% cheaper than a week earlier, but 3% more expensive than a month ago. Chicken carcasses were 6% cheaper than in the corresponding week of 2022.

Turkey: You Should Cook Chicken and Eggs Well These Days (Apr 2)

The bird flu, which affected the USA, Europe, and the Far East, eventually spread to Turkey. Afyonkarahisar and Denizli districts have been under quarantine for a while. About 5M chickens were culled to prevent the spread of the disease. Finally, Japan decided to stop importing poultry products from Turkey due to bird flu concerns. However, there is nothing to panic about. We can say that the disease is under control in Turkey for now. In the meantime, no cases have been reported from poultry production facilities outside the quarantine zones. İbrahim Afyon, President of the Egg Producers Union, states that the disease has been cleared from the hens with precautions and says that there is no current danger. In any case, there was no interruption in egg and poultry meat sales due to the disease. If we consume both with or without cooking, there is always a current risk. On the other hand, if consumption is made from sales points that are not subject to veterinary control, this risk increases even more. In bird flu, cooking stands out as the most effective measure to prevent the disease from being transmitted to humans by the consumption of meat or eggs. We know that heat inactivates the virus. The main precaution recommended for this is; to cook and consume poultry meat until the internal temperature exceeds 70 degrees (until the water is well withdrawn or there is no pink-red part) during epidemic periods.

Thailand: Suggested Prices for Live Broilers (Apr 1)

Suggested prices for live broilers at the farm front from the Broiler Farmers Association is at USD 1.17/kg (40 baht). Broiler chicks are priced at USD 0.34 (11.50 baht) each, and layer chicks are priced at USD 0.82 (28.00 baht) each. The recommended price announcement, "Mixed chicken eggs in front of the farm" Farmers from a network of laying hens cooperatives are priced at USD 0.11 (3.60 baht) per egg.

South Africa: Bird Flu Threatens 2023 Chicken Imports (Mar 27)

South Africa has been importing chicken from the US, Brazil, and Argentina. However, due to bird flu, Covid-19, and higher import tariffs, imports have been declining. Bird flu has stopped imports from the European Union, the major source of South Africa’s chicken imports until 2026. Much of these were found to be dumped in bone-in portions, which caused a crisis in the local industry. Brazil then became the leading overall supplier of imported poultry, while the United States is the main source of bone-in portions, FairPlay explained. In 2022, more than 96% of bone-in imports came from three countries; the United States (49.6%), Brazil (30.2%), and Argentina (16.6%). Argentina is now out of the running, with imports banned from February because of bird flu outbreaks there. Currently, the virus is spreading in the US, and most states, including some of their biggest poultry producers, are banned from exporting to South Africa. As a result, US import volumes have dropped over the past year and might drop further.

South Africa: Fresh Chicken Is Now a ‘Luxury’ (Mar 30)

The cost of producing South Africa’s favorite meat, chicken in particular, has increased. Increased production costs have subsequently spilled over to retail shelve prices, forcing low-income earning consumers to buy cheaper, frozen chicken cuts. While prices remain slightly suppressed, experts cautiously predict that the cost of chicken could increase in the months ahead. If so, this spells good news for farmers, but not so much for consumers. South Africa’s poultry industry finds itself in a two-pronged situation. According to Izaak Breitenbach, president of the South African Poultry Association (SAPA), in the long term, the gross value of the industry has increased and thus remains globally competitive. However, in the short term, the industry is in distress and losing money.

Mexico: Senasica Removes Internal Quarantine Imposed on Poultry Farms (Mar 29)

The National Service for Agri-Food Health, Safety and Quality ( Senasica ) lifted the internal quarantine imposed on poultry farms in the state of Aguascalientes, after verifying that there have been no more cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza AH5N1 in the state. In a statement, the General Directorate of Animal Health of the agency of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development ordered the lifting of the quarantine on March 2, after verifying that there is no presence of the HPAI virus in three chicken farms in grows in Aguascalientes, with a population of 826.8K birds. He stressed that to verify the absence of the virus, the official veterinarians of the United States-Mexico Commission for the Prevention of Foot-and-Mouth Disease and other Exotic Animal Diseases of Senasica carried out weekly sampling for three weeks in the commercial farms of the entity, which gave negative results to HPAI. Thus, they indicated that, after 28 days without cases, the state quarantine was lifted. 


Poland: Turkey Meat Market (Mar 31)

The price of turkeys amounted to USD 2.08/kg (PLN 8.92) and was slightly lower than a week and a month earlier, by USD 0.0047/kg (PLN 0.02) and USD 0.0023/kg (PLN 0.01), respectively. The price of gutted turkey carcasses was USD 3.46/kg (PLN 14.82), 1% lower than in the previous week and 4% lower than the month before. Turkey carcasses were 19% more expensive than last year. Broiler ducks were purchased at USD 1.80/kg (PLN 7.70). It was a price similar to the one recorded in the previous week, but lower by 1% than a month ago. 


Europe: Eggs in the Price of Poultry Meat (Apr 2)

According to the EC quotations on March 20, 100 kg of chicken meat for slaughter cost an average of USD 287.52 (EUR 263.4) in the EU, and 100 kg of chicken eggs cost an average of USD 288.13 (EUR 263.95). The average price of eggs in Europe was therefore even slightly higher than the average price of poultry. The price anomalies we are currently experiencing are the result of avian influenza and the behavior that follows this epizootic. Statistically, the virus primarily affects flocks of laying hens, and only to a small extent flocks of chicken broilers intended for meat. Bird influenza is harmful not only by directly leading to the physical liquidation of flocks but also by indirectly stopping producers from supplementing and increasing their production potential, explains Mariusz Szymyślik, director of analysis at KIPDiP. The Chamber's analysts estimate that the egg production potential in the European Union in January this year was about 9% lower than the year before. 

Germany: Egg Production up 1.4% In 2022 (Mar 28)

In 2022, roughly 13.2B eggs were produced in Germany in holdings with at least 3K places for laying hens. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that production increased by 1.4% compared with the previous year. With 59.7% of the eggs produced, barn husbandry was again the dominant form of husbandry in Germany, despite a reduced proportion. Five years ago, their share was 65.4%. Accordingly, the proportion of free-range eggs increased from 15.9% to 21.5% and organically-produced eggs from 10.7% to 13.8% in the same period. The remaining 5% of the total production of table eggs was kept in small groups, which was 8% five years ago. The average stock of laying hens kept in barn systems fell by 1.4% in 2022 compared to the previous year to around 26.2M animals. At the same time, the number of barn eggs fell by 2.1% to 7.9B eggs. After a decline in the previous year, the average number of free-range laying hens rose by almost 1M to 9.5M animals in 2022 (+11.7%). 

US: Egg Prices in the US Were Exceptionally High (Mar 27)

As they were in 2021, egg prices in the US were exceptionally high in November and December 2022. This was due to several major factors, and there hasn’t been much change in these factors so far in 2023. Poultry World has the latest on the many factors causing huge increases in the retail price of US eggs and looks at what’s ahead. In November, US consumers started noticing an exceptional increase in the price of table eggs and major media outlets reported that the national average price for a dozen hit USD 3.59, up from USD 1.72 a year earlier. At that point, high prices were being driven up to some extent by holiday festivities and baking demands, but most of the price increase was due to the continued upswings in feed, fuel, and labor costs (i.e., inflation). In addition, supply was limited due to the widespread outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) across the US. These outbreaks have so far resulted in over 58M birds being culled. 

Italy: Will Receive USD 29.71M From the Agricultural Reserve to Compensate Farmers for Bird Flu (Mar 30)

The European Commission will provide USD 29.71M (27.2M euros) to Italy from the agricultural reserve (formerly called the crisis reserve) to help compensate farmers in areas affected by outbreaks of bird flu, following the positive vote of the Member States of the European Union. The high cases of avian influenza in this country at the end of 2021 generated a loss of production of hatching eggs, eggs for consumption, live animals, and poultry meat on farms located in those areas with movement restrictions, as well as losses for destroyed eggs and meat. Following a formal request from Italy, the Commission decided to cover 50% of the costs borne by Italy with EU funds to support the market for poultry eggs and meat severely affected by outbreaks of avian influenza. Farms located in those regulated areas will be entitled to the agricultural reserve until the end of 2021.

China: The Price Ratio of Eggs to Feed Was 3.03 in W4 of March, and It Is Expected That Egg Prices Will Still Rise (Mar 27)

According to the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, as of the week of March 22, the national egg-feed price ratio in W13 was 3.03, an increase of 2.36% MoM. Based on the current price and cost calculations, the future profit of laying hens will be USD 7.31/egg (50.31 yuan). At the beginning of the week, the demand improved slightly, driving up egg prices in production areas, and then the terminal’s ability to accept high-priced supply weakened, and egg prices stopped rising and then fell. The average price this week is higher than last week. As the Ching Ming Festival is approaching, the downstream links may cover up positions at low prices, and the market circulation is getting faster. Egg prices are still expected to rise next week, and the profitability of laying hen farming has not changed much.

Indonesia: Chicken Egg Prices Increased Compared to Reference Prices (Mar 31)

Entering the eighth day of the fasting month of Ramadan, the price of purebred chicken eggs is observed to have skyrocketed far from the reference price set by the government of USD 1.82/kg (IDR 27K) at the consumer level. Jakarta Food Information reports that the price of chicken eggs Mar 31 has indeed fallen by USD 0.011 (IDR 158) to USD 2.02/kg (IDR 30.03). The highest price reaches USD 2.15/kg (IDR 32K) at the Tebet Barat Market and the lowest is USD 1.85/kg (IDR 27.5K) at Senen Market Block III-VI. Meanwhile, monitoring by CNBC Indonesia at Enjo Market, East Jakarta, the price of purebred chicken eggs was set at USD 1.95- 2.02/kg (IDR 29K - 30K). 

Tridge Analysis: Why Did Chicken Egg Prices in South Korea Remain Low in Q1 of 2023, While the Majority of Countries Faced Surge? (Mar 29)

Due to the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (AI) over the last winter, more than 140M poultry has been killed between October 2021 and December 2022 which caused egg shortage and price increases globally. North America suffered a lot from avian flu. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the cost of eggs was up 209.8% YoY for producers in the 2022/23 marketing year. For consumers, there was a 70.1% increase in retail price over the past year. The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs of the Republic of Korea recently announced comparing egg wholesale prices in selected countries. According to the Ministry, as of February 2023, wholesale prices for a 30-egg bundle in the US were around USD 12.31 (16K KRW), in Japan were USD 4.31 (5.6K KRW), and in Europe were around USD 4.69 (6.1K KRW) as of March 29, 2023. In South Korea, the price for a 30-egg bundle was USD 3.67 (4.78K KRW) as of March 14, 2023. (Continue Reading)

Bangladesh: Eggs Are Not an Affordable Protein Source Any More at USD 1.42 per Dozen in Dhaka Markets (Mar 27)

Eggs are not an affordable quality protein source anymore, as the price per dozen has soared to USD 1.42 (Tk150) in the kitchen markets across Dhaka. Lower-income families have already been cutting consumption of chicken and meat due to unusually high prices, say consumer rights groups. Now, with eggs going for close to USD 0.12/piece (Tk13), they will not be able to afford any quality source of protein altogether. Street vendors are selling boiled eggs at USD 0.19/piece (Tk20). An egg is being sold at USD 0.28 (Tk30) in Dhaka restaurants. Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB) Vice-President SM Nazer Hossain said consumers in Bangladesh are having a tough time amid record prices of daily essentials due to higher inflation.

Japan: The Impact of the Spread of Avian Flu on Egg Prices (Mar 31)

Bird flu, which has spread globally, is also having an increasing impact in Japan. Several poultry farms in Japan were found to be infected with avian flu, and many of the birds there were culled. As a result, the supply of domestically produced eggs has decreased dramatically, affecting prices. The domestic average wholesale price continues to rise, from USD 1.88/kg on January 5, 2023, to USD 2.63/kg on March 31, 2023, an increase of 1.4 times. However, some contend that the price is still low compared to other countries. The global epidemic shows no signs of ending and remains uncertain.

Taiwan: Imported Eggs Available at Chain Marts From Mar 29 in Taiwan (Mar 28)

Imported eggs will hit the shelves at PX Mart stores in Taipei and New Taipei from Mar 29. Availability for purchase will vary from store to store, PX Mart said. According to Carrefour, an imported 10-egg box will sell for USD 2.14 (NT$65) at its stores nationwide, while customers in the North of Changhua can also buy a 12-egg box of imported eggs for USD 2.59- 2.92 (NT$79 or NT$89). 

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