Opinion
W15: Beef Update
Published Apr 21, 2023
In W15, in the beef landscape, the FAO indicates that, in March, global beef prices rose, influenced by the increase in domestic prices in the US, where cattle supply is expected to be lower in the coming months. The dwindling local supply of cattle in the US improved the trading scenario for Australian beef in the American markets, with March exports rising above 17K MT. Australian beef exports to the US have been tracking above year-ago levels since the start of 2023, but March was the first time they also rose above the five-year average. In Brazil, the total beef shipped in March reached almost 148.6K MT, up 2.4% MoM and down 22.4%YoY, while the accumulated volume in Q1 totaled 475.3K MT, a drop of 9% over the same period in 2022. The release of Brazilian beef shipments to China after the lifting of the mad cow ban is expected to contribute to higher exports in the coming months. Tridge’s analysis indicates that the drought in Argentina led to poor pasture and resulted in increased cattle slaughter and beef production. According to INDEC data, exports of Argentine fresh/chilled or frozen beef, excluding offal, totaled 102.9K MT in January-February 2023, up 19% YoY. Nonetheless, export value declined by 13% YoY, as the average unitary value fell 27% YoY to USD 4.10/kg. In January-March 2023, Ukraine exported 5.3K MT of frozen cattle meat worth USD 20.6M, mainly destined for China (69%), Azerbaijan (9.8%), and Uzbekistan (7.3%). Lastly, Ukrainian imports of frozen beef in the first three months of 2023 totaled 369MT valued at USD 1.6M, sourced from Lithuania (45.1%), Brazil (40.6%), and Austria (13.4%).