In W17 in the beef landscape, SAFRAS and Mercado indicate that the participation of Mercosur members, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay in global beef exports is expected to decrease by 4% YoY in 2023. The expected decrease in their export volumes for 2023 is forecast to significantly impact their economies, particularly for the farmers and exporters who rely on beef as a source of income. The USDA indicates that US beef in cold storage at the end of March 2023 was 480.896M pounds, a 10% drop from the record monthly high reported at the end of March 2022. The drop was driven by comparatively better demand than other proteins and a lower production pace due to tighter market-ready supplies. The USDA also indicates that, as of the start of 2023, US cattle stock shrunk by roughly 3% compared to 2022. Therefore, US beef slaughter and production are expected to drop in 2023, leading to a downtrend in beef exports. Specifically, US 2023 beef and veal production exports are estimated to reach 12.2MMT and 1.4MMT, down 5% and 11%, respectively. The number of dairy cull cows marketed through US slaughter plants was estimated at 306.1K in March 2023, up 39.6K from February and 8.9K more than in March 2022. This indicates that March US dairy cull cow marketing was the highest since 1986, with slaughter averaging 11.3K heads per day. Australian cattle yarding numbers tightened substantially in W17, reaching 36.5K heads down from 55.44K heads in W16. Despite a shortened selling week due to the ANZAC Day public holiday, typical weekly volumes were offered in W17, demonstrating the continued improvement in supply as the cattle cycle matures.
CSO indicates that Irish cattle slaughter in Q1 2023 totaled 475K heads, a decrease of 0.4% compared to Q1 2022, with March slaughtering declining by 5% YoY to 165K heads. According to DAFM, a total of 499.69K Irish cattle were sold at marts in Q1 2023, 15.89K heads more than in Q1 2022, with the highest number being sold in March at 228.34K heads. The USDA indicates that Mexican live cattle exports in 2023 are expected to reach 1.1M heads, a growth of 22% YoY. This is driven by greater Mexican animal production, estimated to reach 8.5M heads at the end of 2023, 1.5% higher than last year. According to GCMA, Mexican live cattle exports in Q1 2023 totaled 321.19K heads, 33.2% more than in Q1 2022. IAE indicates that in Sao Paulo in Brazil, a kilogram of beef was sold at an average price of USD 7.86/kg in March, down 1% MoM and 4% YoY. Meanwhile, Brazilian live cattle price to the producers in March fell by 2.6% MoM and 18.2% YoY. SECEX data indicates that Brazilian beef exports reached 72.4K MT until W3 of April, with a daily average shipment of 5.5K MT, a drop of 32.7% compared to the same week in April last year, while the daily average increased by 14.58% WoW. The performance of Brazilian exports is still compromised by the Chinese embargo on Brazilian products, due to the atypical case of mad cow in Pará. Lastly, in the January-March period, Ukrainian live cattle exports totaled 6.1K MT, 3.6 times higher than last year, valued at USD 9.6M, 2.5 times more than in Q1 2022. Egypt (43.3%), Lebanon (38.2%), and Jordan (11.5%) bought the most Ukrainian live cattle in Q1 2023.