In W20 in the soybean landscape, ANEC estimates Brazilian soy exports in May to reach a record high of 15.76MMT, an increase of about 5.5M YoY, while soy-meal shipments are also expected to break historic monthly marks in May. Shipments from Brazil, the world's biggest soy exporter, are on the rise in 2023 as the country takes advantage of a record harvest, while Brazilian exporters have also been gaining market share due to the crop failure of Argentina, traditionally the biggest exporter of soybean oil and soy meal. If the export forecast by ANEC is confirmed, the May Brazilian soy volume would slightly surpass the country's previous largest monthly shipment of 15.67MMT in April 2021, as Brazil deals with a grain storage deficit, which also increases the pressure on the part of producers, who are waiting for the harvest of a record corn crop starting in April. CEPEA indicates that Brazilian soybean harvesting is practically over. However, even with warehouses full of grain, Brazilian soybean farmers are cautious about sales of the 2022/23 crop on the spot market. This is because a portion of the farmers prefers to carry out a barter operation, that is, exchanging a bag of soybeans for inputs and fertilizers for the 2023/24 harvest. In addition, Brazilian national producers have expectations of greater external demand for soybeans from Brazil, based on the crop failure in Argentina. SINDIVEG reports that the incidence of bedbugs in the 2022/23 Brazilian soybean harvest increased by 6.3% compared to the 2021/22 harvest due to climate normalization and increased grain production, including area expansion, which favors the emergence and development of pests.
The USA reports that, as of May 14th, US soybean planting progress jumped 14% in W19 to 49% complete, above the five-year average of 36%. US Soybean emergence was pegged at 20%, up 11% from the previous week and 9% ahead of the five-year average. The USDA also outlines that, as of the week ending May 11th, US soybean shipments totaled 147,897MT, down 62.8% WoW and below the expected range of 150K-500K MT. So far in the 2022/23 season, US soybean exports have reached 48.005MMT, just 1% less than in the same period in 2021/22. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange adjusted downwards its estimate for 2022/23 Argentine soybean production from 22.5MMT to 21MMT, down 52% compared to the previous season. The new cut was due to lower-than-expected yields, mainly in the central region of the agricultural area, as well as large area losses of second-crop soybeans. Also, the Argentine soybean harvest reached 69.2% of the suitable area in W19, an increase of 17.6% points WoW. The national average productivity was pegged at 1,520kg/ha. Furthermore, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 4% of the Argentine soybean crop was in good or excellent condition in W19, unchanged compared to W18. The share in normal conditions increased from 37% to 40%, while the percentage in fair or poor conditions decreased from 59% to 56%.
APK-Inform forecasts Ukrainian soybean exports in the 2022/23 season to reach 2.66MMT, 91% higher than the indicator of 2021/22 MR, and may become a record for the past 5 seasons. In the first eight months of MY 2022/23 (September 2022-April 2023), Ukrainian soybean shipments were mainly destined for the EU (48%) and Turkey (37%). This season, Ukrainian agricultural producers increased soybean production due to the increase in the sown area, and thus, the gross harvest was about 4MMT. In the 2023/24 season, APC-Inform expects a further increase in the Ukrainian soybean harvest, as the sown area may increase to 1.7M ha, up 8% compared to 2022/23, and the gross harvest to a four-year maximum, amounting to about 4.2MMT, an increase of 6%. Russian soybean prices briefly strengthened in a number of regions as a result of growing demand and contracting from major players, however, in general, the market is in a state of stagnation. Given the decline in world prices, which may last for another month as the activity of South American exporters grows, soybean prices in Russia are also expected to experience downward pressure. Lastly, according to CNGOIC estimates, the volume of soybean processing in China in W18 amounted to 1.98MMT, up 6% WoW, 44% higher than the level of W1 of April, and an increase of 16% YoY. CNGOIC notes that Chinese soybean stocks are gradually decreasing, since, as of May 6th, they were estimated at 3.4MMT, down 4% WoW and 26% YoY. Meanwhile, Chinese soybean meal stocks in the PRC were estimated at 300K MT, up 25% WoW but down 46% YoY, and soybean oil stocks were pegged at 670K MT, up 12% WoW but down 17% YoY.