W36: Chicken Update
In W36 in the chicken landscape, Tridge’s data analysis indicates that chicken wholesale prices in Pernambuco, Brazil, averaged USD 1.79 per kilogram in Aug-23, the lowest monthly average in 17 months and the sharpest yearly decline since 2019 at 16.3%. The ample meat supply of beef, pork, and chicken, exerts downward pressure on chicken prices. Despite a 10% year-on-year (YoY) increase in Brazilian chicken meat exports from Jan-23 to Jul-23, domestic prices have not registered significant support.
Domestic chicken prices slightly increased to an average of USD 1.83/kg in Brazil so far in Sep-23, a 2% month-on-month (MoM) surge but still a significant 14% YoY decrease. As producer margins narrow, there has been a modest reduction in supply. Nonetheless, Tridge expects 2023 chicken prices to remain considerably above 2019 and 2020 levels, signaling further downside room.
The Brazilian Association of Animal Proteins (ABPA) reports that Brazilian chicken meat exports reached 3.51 million metric tons (mmt), valued at USD 6.86 billion in the first eight months of 2023. This represents an increase of 7.1% in volume and a surge of 4.8 % in value compared to the same period in 2022.
Aug-23 chicken shipments totaled 446.8 thousand metric tons (mt), valued at USD 831 million, an uptick of 2.1% YoY in volume but a drop of 9.9% YoY in value. Brazil’s Aug-23 chicken exports were primarily destined for China with 52.8 thousand mt (+32.5% YoY), the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with 47.3 thousand mt (+30.2% YoY), and Saudi Arabia with 37.2 thousand mt (+12.6% YoY). The top exporting states in Aug-23 were Paraná with 179.4 thousand mt (+5.3% YoY), Santa Catarina with 98.2 thousand mt (+8.7% YoY), and Rio Grande do Sul with 65.8 thousand mt (+3.4% YoY). ABPA expects Brazil’s chicken meat exports to surpass 5 mmt in 2023.
The Brazilian fresh chicken meat export price reached USD 1,811.47/mt in Aug-23, reminiscing Mar-22 and Dec-13 levels, differing by less than a dollar. The recent upward price trend mirrors that of 2013. Over the past decade, there was a sharp decline after the 2013 peak, followed by almost three years of setbacks until early 2016. Prices then remained relatively stable at around USD1,600/mt for four years. However, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted this, first causing a drop to 2009 levels and then soaring to historic highs. While full stability is challenging, a return to the USD 1,600/mt range, observed from 2016 to 2019, is expected in the short term, likely by Mar-24 or Apr-24, considering the recent average monthly decrease of just over 1.5%.
Lastly, the Brazilian chicken market exhibited mixed trends at the end of W36, with frozen or chilled poultry price increases observed in the São Paulo market. Scot Consultoria indicates that poultry prices on the farm in São Paulo remained stable at USD 1.01/kg, while wholesale chicken experienced a 1.20% week-on-week (WoW) decrease to USD 1.32/kg. Live poultry prices held steady at USD 0.88/kg in Santa Catarina but decreased by 1.78% WoW to USD 0.89/kg in Paraná. According to Cepea/Esalq, Brazilian frozen poultry registered a 3.35% WoW increase to USD 1.37/kg, while chilled chicken rose by 3.21% WoW to USD 1.36/kg.