W36: Grape Update

In W36 in the grape landscape, the global grape market is projected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1% from 2023 to 2028. The global grape vineyard area has remained stable at approximately 9.5 to 10 million hectares (ha), while grape production reaches 60 to 70 million metric tons (mmt) annually. Almost 80% to 90% of the total volume of grapes produced is used for processing and manufacturing wine, juices, and other goods.

There is a growing demand for table grapes on a global scale, with particular emphasis on regions such as Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Russia. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, the global production of fresh grapes, including table grapes, rose to 78 mmt in 2020, marking an increase from 77 mmt in 2019. This upward trend in production is expected to create an appealing market for grape growers worldwide.

Peru exported 267.1 thousand tons of table grapes worth USD 676 million in the first seven months of 2023, a 19% year-over-year (YoY) increase in volume and 29% YoY increase in value. The price of Peruvian grapes in the international market has pushed up its export volume and value, with an average price of USD 2.35 per kilogram (kg) in 2022 and USD 2.54/kg in 2023, an 8% YoY increase. The United States (US) remains the largest export destination for Peruvian grapes, accounting for 55% of the export share, with an export volume of approximately 147.6 thousand tons valued at USD 372 million. Peruvian grape exports to the US have increased by 42% YoY, while the export value has increased by 50% YoY. On the other hand, the export volume of Peruvian grapes to China fell sharply by 35% YoY, and the export value fell by 19% YoY, while the average price in China increased by 24% YoY from USD 2.65/kg in 2022 to USD 3.28/kg.

Table grape prices in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have surged due to severe winter frost damage, causing wholesale prices for popular varieties to reach higher levels. EastFruit analysts report that these prices are considerably higher than normal for this season, making table grapes scarce and expensive. Additionally, Tajikistan is importing table grapes from Uzbekistan, causing a fruit shortage in the country. Traders predict that prices will continue to increase, and large grape imports may become profitable before the new year. It will take at least three years for Tajikistan to recover its table grape production to last year's level.

In Iraq, over 600 grape vineyards in the Rawanduz district of Erbil province have been affected by a rare grape disease, causing reduced grape production in 2023. The disease's rapid spread is due to heavy rains and cold weather conditions, which have also affected other crops in the region. The majority of grapes consumed in the Kurdistan Region are imported from Turkey and southern Iraqi cities.

Lastly, Italian grapes are selling well in southern Italy's Apulia region, where the harvest began early. Grape growers are optimistic because some of the seed grapes have been selling for higher prices. However, due to issues like fungal diseases, low supply of grapes, and increasing grape prices in the country, 2023 saw a 30% reduction in Italian grape production.