W37: Lemon and Lime Update

In W37 in the lemon and lime landscape, AILIMPO's estimate for lemon production in the 2023/24 season predicts that Spain will produce approximately 1.3 million tons of lemons. This figure is similar to the lemon production achieved in the 2020/21 season and represents a substantial 34% year-on-year (YoY) increase. The 2022/23 season registered the lowest lemon harvest in the last decade, with a final production of 1.01 million tons, which accounts for the fruit exported, processed, or sold in the domestic market, as well as for volume losses.

In Brazil, Hortifruti Cepea reports a reduction in Tahiti lime exports to foreign markets, primarily due to high prices and the approaching end of the European summer. Additionally, domestic consumers are exerting pressure to lower lime prices due to challenges in accepting the current price levels. Consequently, Tahiti lime was priced at an average of USD 15.92/box of 27 kilograms (BRL 77.5/box of 27 kg) in W37, reflecting a slight decrease of 1.03% compared to the previous week.

Peruvian fresh lemon exports reached 24.1 thousand tons in the first 35 weeks of 2023, a 7% increase from 2022. In W35, shipments totaled 194 tons, a 25% week-on-week (WoW) increase but a 38% YoY decrease. Peruvian fresh lemons were primarily sent to the Netherlands (87%) and the United States (13%).

Furthermore, the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) predicts that the current high price of Peruvian lemons will decrease soon. Elevated lemon prices, which reached up to 69.8%, are attributed to the impact of heavy rains in Mar-23 and Apr-23, related to the El Niño Costero phenomenon, affecting the crop's flowering between Jun-23 and Sep-23.

According to the president of the BCR, the price drop will begin in Oct-23, albeit gradually. In Sep-23, there may still be a slight increase in lemon prices, but Nov-23 and Dec-23 will experience more significant reductions. In comparison, during the 2017 El Niño event, lemon prices soared to USD 3.91/kg (PEN 14.5/kg) in Aug-17 but dropped to USD 0.97/kg (PEN 3.6/kg) in Dec-17. The BCR forecasts lemon prices to be around USD 4.07/kg (PEN 15.1/kg) in Oct-23, USD 2.53/kg (PEN 9.4/kg) in Nov-23, and USD 1.77/kg (PEN 6.58/kg in Dec-23. These predictions are part of the Inflation Report for the Q3-23.