W38: Orange Update

In W38 in the orange landscape, the 2023/24 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt has been updated, with the Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties' forecast increased by 3.5% to 58.09 million boxes, while other early-season types increased by 1.6% to 18.51 million boxes. The Pera Rio forecast decreased by 2.3% to 96.68 million boxes, while Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties remained unchanged at 105.23 million boxes and 30.83 million boxes, respectively.

A meeting between the Citrus Growers Association, Belize Citrus Mutual, and Citrus Products of Belize Limited has agreed on prices for the 2023/24 processing season. Citrus growers will receive USD 8.89/box (BZD 18/box) for grapefruits and USD 1.98/box (BZD 4/box) for oranges. An additional USD 0.12/box (BZD 0.25/box) will be added for every additional 50 thousand boxes delivered. Due to Belize's government support, this decision marks a historic high in orange prices.

Two consecutive cold fronts and a spring tide have resulted in significant disruptions along the South African coastline, primarily affecting shipping operations. Due to these disruptions, the shipment schedule for oranges bound for the European Union (EU) has been affected. A 4.3% tariff applies to these shipments until November 30. South African port delays and congestion present challenges, but European buyers do not seem overly concerned. This is primarily due to the high demand for South African oranges in the European market. Furthermore, the EU has plans to gradually phase out the tariff on South African orange imports by 2026. This phased approach helps mitigate the potential impact of shipping delays and reinforces the long-term outlook for South African orange exports to the EU.

The conflict in Ukraine has had a significant impact on Portuguese prices for various agricultural products, resulting in a 50% increase in the prices of oranges, carrots, broccoli, and olive oil due to increased production costs stemming from the Russian invasion, which has affected energy costs, transportation expenses, and the raw materials prices. As a result, consumer prices for these items have surged by more than 50%.