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W39: Weekly Nut Update

Updated Oct 6, 2022
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what has happened during W39 in the global nut landscape including almonds, walnuts, pistachio, cashew, hazelnut, macadamia, chestnut and more.


Australian Raw Almonds More Competitively Priced Than U.S. Almonds in W39

In the New Zealand market in W39, Australian raw almonds with the same specifications cost 14% less than California almonds. It is driven by the NZD to USD exchange rate dropping by 20% YoY, compared to the NZD to AUS exchange rate, which only dropped by 8% YoY. Additionally, Australia has increased almond production from 120K M.T in 2020/21 to 132K M.T in 2021/22, up 8%, making Australian-origin processed or raw almonds offer better value than U.S. almonds.

Spain: Castilla-La Mancha doubles its area of almond trees

According to Minister of Agriculture, Water and Rural Development, Francisco Martínez, almond cultivation in Castilla-La Mancha has doubled in surface area in the past five years and occupies 150,000 hectares in 2022, and its organic production exceeds 50,000 hectares. This makes the Castilla-La Mancha autonomous community the one that grows the most almonds out of all the ecological ones at national level.

Hesitation to Overcommit Purchasing US Almond

US almonds have had good activity throughout W38. However, buyers have been cautious not to over-commit because of external economic factors such as interest rates, exchange rates, inflation, and possible recession. In the short term, any major price movements in US almonds are unlikely. China shows limited interest in NPIS (Nonpareil In-shell) due to fears over cargo not arriving in time for the Chinese New Year. Europe is cutting its needs, and processors are taking advantage of the 2021 crop discount to drive the almond price up a few cents. Other European industries have been locking in some of their Q4 demands, but some European buyers are still cautious due to the premium almond price of USD 0.10-0.15 p/lb and other economic issues. The Middle East still shows demand for NPX and is the opposite of the Indian market, where buyers hesitate despite strong shipment numbers in August.

Spain: UPA Andalusia denounces a clear agreement for setting prices in the industry for almonds

The Union of Small Farmers and Ranchers (UPA) Andalusia has criticized the excuses of the Spanish almond industry for setting ruinous prices for almonds, in a year where production is already significantly decreased. The UPA demands the real application of the Food Chain Law, which establishes that payment be made above production costs. Due to drought and heat stroke, together with the strong effect of the Monilia fungus and the frost last April, up to 70% of the almond production has been lost in many areas of Almería and Granada. In Seville there is already talk of prices of 80 cents per kilo, which does not cover production costs. Given the almond's ability to be preserved for extended periods, the UPA recommend that nut farmers do not sell their product and store it within its possibilities until the situation of speculation by the industrialists stabilizes. 


Vietnamese Cashew Market Remains Quiet but Prices Have Stabilised

The Vietnamese cashew market remains quiet but appears to have stabilised. Slowdown in Vietnamese production combined with sporadic buying from various markets has at least temporarily halted falling prices. FH September exports were very poor from Vietnam, even compared to the last three months, which already saw a marked slowdown in exports.

CIF - Price indications - EU-port:

Cashew W240 – BRC-packer

Origin: African or Vietnamese

Shipment = Oct – Dec: USD 2.95/lbs

Shipment = Jan – June: USD 3.00/lbs

Cashew W320 – BRC-packer

Origin: African or Vietnamese

Shipment = Oct – Dec 2022: USD 2.80/lbs

Shipment = Jan – June 2023: USD 2.85/lbs

Vietnam: Imported cashew nuts decreased by nearly 900,000 tons

The total amount of imported cashew nuts from the beginning of the year to September 15 was 1,556,210MT, with a turnover of nearly USD 2.24 billion. Notably, compared to the same period in 2021, the volume and turnover of cashew imports dropped sharply. Of which, the volume decreased by 876,895 tons, equivalent to a decrease of 36%; turnover decreased by USD 1.34 billion, equivalent to a decrease of 37.4%.

Vietnamese Cashew Nut Buyers Silent Ahead of the Tanzanian 2022/23 Season

Cashew nut buyers from Vietnam are demonstrating silence towards ordering for the upcoming 2022/23 Tanzanian Raw Cashew Nut (RCN) season. Buyers are hoping for low prices this year given the general oversupply in global nut markets which have pushed the kernel prices down. High levels of global inflation has also dampened the demand for nuts in consumer markets. Thus, Vietnamese buyers are cautious of buying more raw materials in fear that prices might drop further or consumer demand might taper off.

Indian Cashew Nut Buyers Overstocked Ahead of 2022/23 Tanzanian Season

Indian cashew nut buyers are silent ahead of the 2022/23 Tanzanian Raw Cashew Nut (RCN) season as they are reportedly overstocked with goods from West Africa. The recent arrival of cheap yet good quality stock KOR 52 from Guinea Bissau at various ports in India is expected to influence buyers to start demanding low prices for Tanzanian RCN this season. The quality of RCN from Guinea Bissau has improved, and India is reported to have hauled a large volume at a discounted price, which could reduce the import volume from Tanzania and push prices down in the 2022/23 season.

Raw Cashew Nuts Demand Forecast in India

India’s raw cashew nut imports were likely to hit a new record as the import figures in the first nine months of 2022 stood at 975K MT. Indian processors have enough raw cashew nuts to process until next March due to the over-positioning from other origins, thus showing less interest in the Tanzania crop. Although some processors have expressed interest, contract booking will only happen if offers match their strict price criteria. The kernel market is doing well currently due to the festive season in India, but post-October, it is expected that there will be a slowdown for 1 or 2 months as end buyers will have enough stock of kernels.

Preparations are Underway for the 2022/23 Raw Cashew Nut Season in Tanzania

The Raw Cashew Nuts’ Agricultural Marketing Cooperative Union (AMCOS) and the Cooperatives’ Union warehouses in Tanzania are expected to be opened for starting the collection of raw cashew from the 3rd of October 2022. The Cooperative Union operators are now undertaking training on the warehouse receipt system organised by The Warehouse Receipts Board as they prepare for the 2022/23 raw cashew nut season.

Coastal Region Cooperative Union expects 10,000MT for 2022/23 Tanzanian RCN season

The Coastal Region Cooperative Union (CORECU) has started preparations for the 2022/23 raw cashew nut (RCN) season in Tanzania. CORECU aims to collect and sell about 10,000MT of RCN, which is a slight increase compared to last season’s harvest. The first auction at CORECU for the 2022/23 season will take place on 19 October, 2022.


Drought in northern Iraq hit walnut production

Due to the drought in the north of Sulaymaniyah, in the Havraman region of Iraq, famous for its walnuts, the expected yield could not be achieved this year. Farmers used to collect walnuts from 60,000 trees in the past, this is not possible this year as some of the trees have rotted and half of the walnuts have darkened. Farmers are trying to clean the walnuts in this situation and save the healthy part. About 30 percent of the walnuts are dried.

Low Prices of US 2021 Walnuts in W39 Due to High Supply

As a result of a sizable carryover of the 2021 walnut crop, a good walnut harvest in 2022, and weak demand from Europe, Turkey, and India, US producers managed to keep walnut prices low in W39. Although buyers request supply from the 2022 crop, producers only provide the 2021 crop at a low rate of USD 1.80/lb. As 2023 approaches, the possible effects of this cheap stock could lead to dark brown walnuts that taste rancid. Hence, buyers need to be wary of extremely low-priced walnuts, even if they are stated as a 2022 crop, which is not guaranteed.

Turkey: walnut yield increased in Kırklareli compared to last year

Kırklareli Provincial Director of Agriculture and Forestry Mehmet Aksoy said that "The yield is high in walnuts. Our walnut fields in Kırklareli are more than 10 thousand decares planted. Our producers have fertile products this year, yields are excellent. Our current gardens are 5 years old. In other words, we have a state-run garden in our established gardens." They did not come to full yield because of 5 years of support, but when they come to full yield, Kırklareli will meet a large part of the walnut need in the country,"

2nd Walnut Harvest Festival was a success with 7MT of nuts collected

The 2nd Walnut Harvest Festival held in Gedikoğlu District of Oğuzhan Village in Devrek was a success with 7MT of walnuts collected. With the projects carried out recently, the covered walnut garden area in the villages of Devrek has increased from 2 thousand 750 decares to 4 thousand decares, while on the other hand, the installation of covered garden with the support of seedlings continues.


Turkey: Hazelnut price statement from TMO General Manager

Turkish Grain Board (TMO) General Manager Ahmet Güldal stated that the highest price in the hazelnut market is given to the producers by the Turkish Grain Board. The hazelnut prices were announced by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as 52 liras in levant quality, 53 liras in Giresun quality and 51 liras in sharp quality. Meanwhile the price of hazelnuts in the free market dropped to 42 liras. TMO states that if producers are patient they will purchase all available hazelnuts. Hazelnut purchases by TMO started on August 22 with over 100 thousand tons of appointments to date with over 50% of appointments realised. Appointments remain open until the end of November. Over 50 purchasing centers are currently open with appointments for 3,500MT per day. 

Turkey: Strong Reaction to TMO Chamber of Agriculture President

Producers who want to give hazelnuts to the Turkish Grain Board, which started to purchase hazelnuts on August 22, are suffering due to the problems they encounter such as warehouse and personnel shortages. Responding to the problems faced by producers at TMO, Altınordu Chamber of Agriculture President Atakan Akça said that none of the promises made to them at the beginning of the season were kept. 

Turkey announced the deadline for the application on Farmer Registration System

The deadline for the application of the Farmer Registration System, which must be made every year in order to receive field-based support income in hazelnut has been moved to 31 December. The application period, was between September 1 and June 30, thus, the application period, which was previously 10 months, has been reduced to 4 months. In addition, the signatures of the muhtar (head of village), which were previously obligatory, will be removed and an application can be made from the e-Government from October. The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry aimed to reduce bureaucracy thanks to digitalization by eliminating some of the problems with the change it made to the Farmer Registration System (ÇKS).

The cracked nut problem in Turkish Grain Board has been resolved

The cracked hazelnut problem in the Turkish Grain Board has been resolved. The Turkish Grain Board determined the rate of cracked hazelnuts as 5% for the 2022 season. Especially in oily and plump hazelnuts, natural cracks occur. During the 2022 season TMO was sending the producers back, arguing that there were cracks in the hazelnuts. Cracked hazelnuts cause rot when stored for a long time. Due to increased complaints, the TMO increased the crack rate from 5% to 10%.

The Düzce province in Turkey exported 11,849MT in the first 8 months of 2022

Düzce, one of the important hazelnut production regions in Turkey, exported 11,849MT of hazelnuts in the first 8 months of 2022. Holding 70% of the world market for hazelnuts, Turkey continues to export hazelnuts to many countries in the world, especially to European countries. Hazelnuts are produced by thousands of farmers in 39 provinces in Turkey, on an area of ​​700,000 hectares.

Georgian hazelnut producers can get financing secured by a nut

A memorandum was signed between Liberty Bank and the Association of Hazelnut Producers of Georgia, which provides for the launch of an innovative pilot program, in particular, the provision of loans to hazelnut growers under a simplified procedure (factoring). This program was initiated by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID/Georgia) and the Georgia Hazelnut Sector Development Project (G-HIP) implemented by CNFA. Hazelnut was chosen for the pilot program, and Liberty Bank and the Association of Hazelnut Producers of Georgia became participants in the program. As part of the new agricultural project, Liberty chose the form of factoring, which is the best way to finance farmers in a simplified form and in the shortest possible time.


Portugal: Bragança Chamber asks authorities to take action against chestnut theft

The Bragança Chamber on 26 September asked for more surveillance and inspection by the authorities and marketing agents to prevent chestnut theft, at a time when another campaign is about to start. The position of the municipality arises after listening to the concerns of producers regarding the thefts that occurred in previous years and in the face of an upcoming campaign that is “unfavorable”, due to the drought and the increase in production costs.

Italy: We are moving towards hyper-production

On the eve of the 2022 Italian campaign, the forecasts coming from the chestnut sector are decidedly positive. At the production level, there should be a real boom, albeit with sizes on average lower than the norm due to the drought of the 2022 summer. However, several issues to be resolved also remain on the table, starting with the protection of the national product. In the absence of PDO or PGI designations of origin, there are some varieties typical of the national territory that are produced abroad, then perhaps also marketed on the domestic market as an Italian product. Another problem concerning the chestnut sector in the long term is a situation of hyper-production, now that several countries, including Chile, Germany, Austria, Albania, but also Italy itself, are making several Japanese hybrid plants.

Italy: Chestnut from Monte Amiata Igp, price at 1.50 euros per kilo?

From a production point of view, also for the Castagna del Monte Amiata Igp an excellent year is looming, as in most of Italy. Precisely this situation, however, could generate price problems, with prices pushed downwards. There is still no official price list but some rumors speak of EUR 1.50/kg wholesale. If this were the case it would be a problem, because producers would be at the limit of production costs. EUR 2.00/kg would be fine, like last year, when there was less product. 

France: The chestnut harvest season has started in Limousin

Chestnut production has commenced in the Limousin region of France, especially forthe earliest varieties. According to producers the 2022 season promises to be better than last year in terms of volume despite the heat waves and drought of 2022.

Spain: The Huelva chestnut sector foresees a "significant" reduction in the harvest due to the drought

The Coordinator of Organizations of Farmers and Ranchers of Huelva (COAG) foresees that the 2022 campaign will experience a significant reduction in the chestnut harvest due to the drought, which is currently affecting the early harvest. The sea urchin is still small so it is not known when the chestnuts start to fall whether it will be full or empty, or the amount of chestnuts it may have. At this point, the strongest part of the chestnut harvest will begin on October 11, since the variety known as the Sanmigueleña is the earliest but has less commercial value, while from November 1, the late chestnut season begins, which represents the bulk of the harvest in the province of Huelva. Chestnut production in Huelva could be down as much as 50% compared to last year.

Turkey: Chestnuts collected from the forest find buyers for 70 liras per kilogram in Turkeli

The harvest of chestnuts, which is one of the indispensable flavors of cold winter evenings, has started in Turkeli, Turkey. Producers, who have started harvesting in the hillside forests, are making an effort to bring their products to the consumers. With the start of the harvest, the first chestnut of the season took its place on the counters and were sold at 70 TL per kilogram. The 2022 yield of chestnut is lower than last year.

Turkey :Chestnuts on the counter are sold for 50 TL per kilogram in Kastamonu

With the start of the season in Kastamonu, chestnuts collected from forest areas by the citizens began to be sold in neighborhood markets. The price of chestnut, which started to be sold at 50 TL per kilogram, is expected to decrease in the coming days. The expectation is that the yield will be high. As the volume of chestnuts increase, citizens estimate that the prices will hover between 15 and 20 TL.


2022 Global Macadamia Forecast and 2021 Season Review

The 2022 global macadamia crop is forecast to be up 12% on the 2021 season, driven primarily by forecasted production increases in the South African and Chinese crops. This is despite Australia forecasting a 10% decrease compared with last season as a direct result of the severe weather and flooding in New South Wales and South-East Queensland. The revised Australian forecast is 49,340MT in-shell at 3.5% moisture and 52,900MT in-shell at 10% moisture. This is still a realistic expectation given Australia’s largest producing region of Bundaberg is enjoying a very strong season. South Africa’s forecast for 2022 is 68,522MT in-shell at 3.5% moisture, a 22.2% increase on last season.

In the 12 months to June 2022, global macadamia kernel imports to the top five markets combined grew 8% compared to the prior 12 months. All major markets indicated growth, except for Japan (-5%) and Australia (-4%). The major markets of Europe and US were up 9% and 10% respectively. Total kernel imports to China/Hong Kong were recorded at a high of 3,900MT, up 23%. Average price per kg data for imports indicates significant downward price pressures are continuing, particularly in the ingredient styles.

Total in-shell imports to China for the period July 2021 to June 2022 were the highest on record for many years, being reported at 38,656MT. China Customs data highlights the major import destinations of nut-in-shell are South Africa and Australia. Imports from Australia were at 13,685MT, up 15%, and South African imports at 14,084MT with an increase of 94% for this period. Australian macadamia sales continue to increase year on year following COVID-19 disruptions.

The industry recorded strong trade in the 12 months for the MAT period (July to June), up 8% overall. The increase was driven by strong kernel sales to China/Hong Kong with increases also seen in Japan, Taiwan and other Asian countries. Sales to the Australian, South Korean and other European markets softened slightly, while Germany was stable. Despite the upward sales trend, market conditions remain tough given the increase in supply, intensified price pressure in the ingredient market, and ongoing challenges with the supply chain.

Australia Remains the Top Macadamia Kernel Exporter to Japan

Australia has been the unchallenged leader in Macadamia Kernel exports to Japan since 2014. Recently, South Africa has been increasing its exports to Japan by taking advantage of its low prices. Last year, the unit price per kg of South African macadamia kernel was 15 points lower than Australia's. However, due to global inflation, South Africa's macadamia price increased from USD 13.2/kg in 2021 to USD 13.7/kg this year. Despite the inflation, Australia's macadamia price to Japan decreased from USD 15.1/kg in 2021 to USD 14.7/kg this year, ensuring Australia's position remained unthreatened in the Japanese macadamia export market.

Macadamia Prices in Kenya Decrease by 25% Since the Start of the Second 2022 Season

Kenya’s second season of macadamia nuts started in September with suppliers largely sourcing from the Nyeri and Muranga counties of the Central Kenya region. Sourcing is very competitive due to high demand but prices have reduced compared to offseason sourcing prices. Before the season, aggregators were sourcing at as high as USD 20/kg but prices have decreased by 25% to USD 15/kg for raw nuts in W39.

Dak Lak in Vietnam will have 4,000 ha of macadamia by 2030

Vice Chairman of Dak Lak Provincial People's Committee Y Giang Gry Nie Knong signed a plan to implement the Prime Minister's Decision on approving the Project on sustainable development of Macadamia in the period of 2021 - 2030, with a vision to 2050. in the local area. Accordingly, Dak Lak strives to develop the macadamia raw material area by 2030 to reach 4,000 hectares (net planting 1,000 hectares, intercropping 3,000 hectares). 


Drought and cold weather lead to 40% decrease in production in Gaziantep, Turkey

The Chambers of Agriculture Provincial Coordination President Yiğit noted that pistachio production in the Gaziantep Province in Turkey decreased by 40% in 2022 due to drought and cold weather. The 2022 yield is expected at 125,000MT as the harvest is nearing completion compared to the 200,000MT in 2021. This comes from a region where 42 million pistachio trees are located. Yiğit emphasized that the decrease in yield may cause an increase in pistachio prices.

Spain: The Board highlights its firm commitment to the pistachio as an emerging crop in the province

The regional delegate for Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development of the Board in Jaén, Soledad Aranda, highlighted the Board's firm commitment to harvesting pistachios in the province "as an emerging crop" and the professionalization of the sector "as an example of work to reach the most demanding markets with this product". The pistachio currently occupies about 1,000 hectares of surface in the province of Jaen and last season it was around 700 tons.

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