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W40: Weekly Nut Update

Updated Oct 15, 2022
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what has happened during W40 in the global nut landscape including almond, cashew, walnut, hazelnut, chestnut, macadamia and pistachio. For almonds, US sales are expected to slow down in October while Spain is estimated to lose EUR 12.5 million in revenue in 2022. For cashew, Tanzania's 2022/23 production estimate has been revised downward by at least 25% while Vietnam's exports are down 14% in value for the first 9 months of 2022. For walnuts, US shipments increased by 11% YoY in august while Turkey's production is set to increase 3% this year but supplies cannot keep up with domestic demand and prices remain high. Regarding hazelnuts, the Turkish industry is facing an investigation by the competition authority on monopolisation while a 40% decrease in production is expected in Girona, Spain due to the drought. The gall wasp is severely affecting Turkish chestnut production. Lastly, the South African macadamia crop is estimated to be 28.5% higher YoY.


US: Almond Sales Expected to Slow Down in October Due to High Exchange Rate

US almond markets have been facing difficulties mainly with the exchange rate, where the USD continues firming against the euro and pound. Although raw material prices will range from USD 0.30/lb and lower, buyers will still suffer due to the exchange rate. Thus, California has to reduce the almond price to improve demand and aid shipments with a large carryout, which is hindered by the lack of new crop in-shell shipments. California hopes for strong Diwali sales starting on October 24th, as India is perhaps the shortest market that could bring in robust demand for November.

Spain: Almonds Estimated to Lose EUR 12.5 Million in Revenue in 2022

The Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives of Catalonia (FCAC) warns that the fruit and almond sectors will stop invoicing up to 423 million euros this campaign due to the fall in production caused by the frosts of last April. According to the president of the FCAC, Ramon Sarroca, the cooperatives will suffer a strong economic impact as a result of the inclement weather this year and its effects on the lack of product. Hence, they ask the Department of Climate Action to commit to supporting the sector to avoid a "major crisis" after numerous cooperatives have been excluded from aid from the Ministry of Agriculture, "with a very limited budget and the application deadline of which I just finished. In this sense, the FCAC estimates that the 423.6 million euros in turnover losses at processing plants, such as in cooperatives, are divided into 337.6 million euros for stone fruit, 39.9 million for the apple, 33.7 million for the pear and 12.5 million for the almond.

Spain: The Organic Almond in Spain Stops Trading Due to Lack of Operations

The Lonja de Albacete carried out its almond session on Thursday 6 October. There have been repetitions and moderate rises in prices while the organic almond has not been quoted due to lack of operations, leaving the prices as follows: Comuna: EUR 3.90/kg (repetition). Marcona: EUR 7.45/kg (+5 cents). Largueta: EUR 5.40/kg (+5 cents). Guara: EUR 4.05/kg (repetition). Ecological: No Operations.

Turkey: Harvest Time in Almond Orchards on the Shore of Keban Dam Lake

Almonds grown in the villages on the shores of the Keban Dam Lake between Tunceli and Elazığ are currently being harvested after hard work and offered for sale in the domestic market. In the dam, which has fertile lands, the cultivation of almonds has become widespread in recent years. Producers, who make great efforts to reap the rewards of their efforts in the almond orchards, make an agreement with seasonal agricultural workers for the collection of nuts. Workers who work in the gardens for a certain fee pour the almonds from the trees onto the tarpaulins laid on the ground with a shaker. The almonds loaded on the tractor are then thrown into the pulp to be removed from their branches, leaves and green shells. Almonds, which are cleaned from waste and laid out against the sun, are sold in the surrounding provinces and districts. There are 50-60 thousand root almond trees in the region and this number is increasing day by day. Producers sell some of the almonds to wholesalers at the beginning of the season with the remaining volumes going to the consumer as retail.


Tanzania: 2022/23 Cashew Nut Season Extended and Delayed Due to Cold Weather

The 2022/23 Tanzanian raw cashew nut (RCN) season is expected to be longer and more spread out compared to previous seasons. The primary reason for the extended season is that the nut growth rate was reduced and delayed by low temperatures experienced during August and September 2022.

Tanzania: 2022/23 Expected Cashew Production Revised Downward by at Least 25%

Tanzanian Cashew Board Officials are concerned about the production this year as a result of unseasonal weather. Tanzania usually experiences cold weather from May until July, but during 2022 the cold weather extended to September. The extended cold weather period hindered flowering of the cashew trees which resulted in lower fruit set. Resultantly, the initial production estimate of 400,000MT has been revised downward to 250,000-300,000 MT.

Tanzania: 2022/23 Cashew Nut Season to Commence With First Auction on 21 October

The 2022/23 Tanzanian raw cashew nut (RCN) season, which runs from October 2022 to January 2023, is about to commence. Tanzanian RCN is normally traded under the supervision of the government through auctions organized and supervised by the Cashew Nut Board, a government entity in charge of the development and trade aspects of RCN. The Tanzanian Cashew Nut Board has already released a timetable of the auctions for this season, with the first auction scheduled for 21 October 2022 and the last auction to be held on 13 January 2023. An estimated total volume of 250,000-300,000MT of RCN is to be traded during the 2022/23 season.

Vietnam: Cashew Nut Exports in 9 Months of 2022 Reached USD 2.29 Billion 

In the first 9 months of 2022, cashew nut exports are estimated at 382,000MT, worth USD 2.29 billion, down 10.6% in volume and 14% in value over the same period in 2021. According to the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), citing data from the General Department of Customs, it is estimated that in September 2022, cashew nut exports will reach 40,000MT, worth USD 245 million, down 14.6% in volume. and 10.3% decrease in value compared to August 2022; compared to September 2021, down 22.2% in volume and 28.2% in value. In September 2022, the average export price of Vietnam's cashew nuts was estimated at USD 6,136/ton, up 0.5% compared to June 2022, but down 7.7% compared to September 2021. In the first 9 months of 2022, the average export price of Vietnam's cashew nuts is estimated at USD 5,992/ton, down 3.7% over the same period in 2021.

Armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine affects Vietnam's cashew exports. The recession of major economies, high inflation makes consumers tend to increase savings. This will be a barrier for the US to reduce cashew imports in the remaining months of 2022, although consumption demand may increase at the end of the year (according to the cyclical factor). High-priced products are likely not going to be the choice of many people in the context of the not-so-good economic situation.

However, the market still showed a positive signal when the demand for cashew imports from the EU and China still increased strongly. Therefore, Vietnam's cashew industry needs to exploit the advantages that new-generation free trade agreements bring to boost exports to these markets. Currently, exports of most types of cashew nuts have increased, except for W240 and DW cashews. The proportion of W320 cashew nut exports accounted for 41.31% of the total volume and 45.53% of the total value; W240 cashew nuts accounted for 14.03% of the total volume and accounted for 16.28% of the total value.

Tanzania: Projection Is to Reach 700,000MT in the 2025/26 Financial Year

Acting Director General of the Cashew nut Board of Tanzania (CBT), Mr Alfred Francis speaking on the strategies and implementation of taking the industry to the next level in Africa and world market said the projection is to reach production of 700,000MT of cashew nut in 2025/26 financial year. "The board has put strategies in place to increase cashew production from 400,000 harvested this season to 700,000MT by 2025/26, and increase domestic cashew processing capacity to 60%," he said. The board has also widened the scope of regions conducting cashew farming from the traditional five regions to 17-regions. (Continue)

Vietnam: Cashew Nut Exports Down 11.9% in First 8 Months of 2022

According to calculations from statistics of the General Department of Customs, in the first eight months of 2022, the whole country exported 343,292 tons of cashew nuts, earning nearly $2.05 billion, the average price of $5,975/ton, down over 9% in volume and decreased by 11.9% in turnover compared to the same period in 2021 and the price also decreased slightly by 3%. Particularly in August 2022, cashew nut exports increased by 2.8% in volume, up 2.3% in turnover, but the price decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous month, reaching 46,829 tons, equivalent to 273.7 million USD. , price 5,844.7 USD/ton.

The top 3 biggest markets for Vietnam's cashew nut consumption are the US, China, and the Netherlands; of which exported to the US 98,416 tons, equivalent to 569.91 million USD, priced at 5,791 USD/ton, down 16.3% in volume, down 15.7% in turnover but up 0.6% in price over the same period. period 2021; accounting for 28.8% of the total volume and 27.9% of the total cashew export turnover of the country. Exports to China decreased by 13.2% in volume, 29.7% in turnover and 19% in price over the same period in 2021, reaching 44,774 tons, equivalent to 269.63 million USD, priced at 6,022 USD/ ton; accounting for over 13% of the total cashew nut export volume and turnover of the country.

Exports to the Dutch market decreased by 19.7% in volume and 21.5% in turnover and 2.3% in price over the same period in 2021, reaching 37,887 tons, equivalent to 200.12 million USD, the price $5,282/ton; accounting for 11% of the total volume and 9.8% of the total cashew nut export turnover of the country. Cashew nut exports to the EU market reached 72,880 tons, equivalent to US$416.6 million, accounting for 21.3% of the total volume and accounted for 20.4% of the country's total cashew nut export turnover, down over 9% in volume and value. Exports to RCEP FTA countries reached 69,462 tons, equivalent to $422.03 million, down 9.9% in volume and 21.8% in turnover; Exports to markets of FTA CPTTP countries reached 26,094 tons, equivalent to 160.04 million USD, down 12% in volume and 15.4% in turnover compared to the same period in 2021.

Vietnam: Avoiding Risks When Importing Raw Cashews

Vietnam continues to hold the number one position in the world (15 consecutive years) in terms of cashew export, accounting for 80% of the total global output. Enterprises import 85% of raw cashews from Africa for processing and export only 25%. From this 25%, only 17% can be exported, the remaining 8% do not meet the standards of the importer and cannot be transferred domestically. Ms. Tran Thi Lan Huong, Finance Director of Intersnack Vietnam Cashew Co., Ltd., said “To deal with the remaining 8% of products, the unit had to run back and forth to many places to ask for guidance. The customs requested destruction, but the tax authorities did not allow it because they thought that the quantity of goods was too large. If you want to sell domestically, you must have a food safety certificate. Because the output for the above goods has not been found, businesses have to spend a lot of money on container storage and warehousing. Moreover, the finished kernel if left for 1-2 months is bran, and if it is considered a waste product, the price is very low, causing a lot of damage to enterprises." (Continue)


US: 2022 US Walnut Production Estimates

The 2022 walnut production estimate for the United States is at 720,000MT, a decrease of 1.3% YoY with forecasted low supply and prices. Carryover for the upcoming 2022 crop needs to be minimized as much as possible as walnut sensitivity is not sustainable for such a product, based on food safety and the risk of losing valuable commodities.

US: The 2021 US Walnut Crop Shipments Increased by 11% YoY in August

The 2021 walnut crops in California, US, came to a strong end in August 2022 with a shipment of 36k t an increase of 11% YoY. Exports in August increased by 52% MoM, due to the delayed shipments from July due to local protests. The 2021 walnut crop was one of the hardest on the California walnut business since shipments began slowly but picked up in the last few months.

Turkey: Walnut Production to Increase 3% In 2022 With Domestic Prices Remaining High

Walnut production volume keeps increasing in Turkey. In 2021, crop volume was reported at 325,000MT with the volume expected to increase to around 335,000MT in 2022. The W40 market price for Turkish inshell walnut is around USD 3.77-4.31/kg (70-80 Turkish Lira). Compared to imported walnuts from the USA, Chile and China, this price is high even though importers have to bear an import duty of 4% and payment of EUR 300/MT to ETKF.

Turkey: Walnut Production Not Enough to Satisfy Domestic Demand

Although the Turkish walnut harvest is expected to increase to 335,000MT in 2022, there is still not enough to satisfy domestic demand. Turkey imports around 55,000MT of in-shell walnuts mainly from the USA, Chile and China. According to TUİK's statistics, Turkey imported 30,390MT of in-shell walnuts until September 2022 which means there is still a gap between consumption and supply. The devaluation of the Turkish lira is a major factor impacting import decisions as Turkish importers are waiting for a new crop of walnuts from China and the US to appear on the market. This year China's walnut crop volume reached 1.4MMT with 400,000MT destined for export markets. FOB Xianjiang price for in-shell 30mm walnuts is around USD 2,100-2,125/MT.

Chile: Chile Still Has 20% of the 2022 Walnut Crops to Offer

Chile has sold 80% of its 2022 walnut crop, but prices have fallen in W40 due to external pressures, mainly due to reduced demand for second-wave from India, as India imposed a 100% import duty on in-shell Chilean walnut. Other external factors include China, which currently offers competitive prices for walnuts at USD 4/kg in W40, with 2M in-shell walnuts available to satisfy domestic and international market demand. The U.S. is also selling walnuts at a low price of USD 3.96/kg in W40 due to its large carryover of the 2021 crop.

Moldova: There Is No Demand for Walnuts From Moldova Yet

According to the Union of Nut Producers Associations of the Republic of Moldova, several large agricultural enterprises have already formed the first export batches of walnuts of the 2022 harvest (in shell). However, according to EastFruit , the delivery time has not yet been determined, although in the event of a request from the European partners-buyers, they could be carried out as early as this week. According to the specialists of the branch union, the same situation has developed with walnut growers in Romania.

Representatives of the organization hope that certain progress in the export of varietal inshell nuts will occur as a result of the dialogue between Moldovan traders and traditional buyers, which will be held at the international exhibition of food, beverages and the hospitality industry SIAL 2022 in Paris (October 15-19). At the same time, the “starting price corridor” for this product will probably be agreed upon. Preliminary contacts show that it will most likely not differ much from last year's range - 2.4-2.8 euro / kg (for Peschansky, Fernor, Franket, Lara, Chandler) etc.). Taking into account expensive logistics, this means that the purchase prices for inshell varietal nuts will at best be close to last year's starting level - about 25 lei/kg ($1.44/kg). Also, individual trading companies from Moldova have begun harvesting trial batches of walnut kernels. The process is very slow, as the announced first purchase prices are lower than last year (about 100 lei/kg, $5.2/kg).


Turkey: Hazelnut Production Started in Erbaa, Tokat

In Erbaa, the only hazelnut production district of Tokat, the harvest is very productive this year due to the favorable seasonal conditions. However, the quality of hazelnut produced in Erbaa district of Tokat is not comparable to the Black Sea provinces. Gökal Town Mayor Osman Akbulut said “Our annual production is around 5 thousand tons. In terms of efficiency, we really compete with the Black Sea provinces. We produce hazelnuts with an efficiency of over fifty percent and we are very assertive in this regard. By arranging our gardens in the best way, we make the calculation and book of buying more products. Our farmers do not suffer because of the stable prices given by our state and the opening of the Grain Products Office every year.”

Turkey: More Than 49,000MT of Hazelnuts Were Traded on the Commodity Exchanges in August

Ordu Commodity Exchange announced the amount of hazelnuts that went to the market in August in the 2022 hazelnut season. 49,173MT of hazelnuts were traded on the stock exchanges in the first month of the season, 4,916MT in Ordu Commodity Exchange, 3,622MT in Fatsa and 2,685MT in Ünye. Other exchanges were as follows: Sakarya 7,710MT, Düzce 17,166MT, Giresun 2,685MT, Trabzon 941.47MT, Wednesday 3,748MT, Terme 2,810MT and Istanbul, 3,828MT.

Turkey: The Eye of the Hazelnut Producer Is in the Competition Authority

After the monopoly debates that started after the hazelnut price was traded at 44 liras, 8 liras below TMO, in the free market in Ordu, eyes were turned to the Competition Authority.  The outcome of the investigation initiated after Mehmet Hilmi Güler filed a complaint with the Competition Authority of the Italian company Ferrero, accused of dominating the hazelnut market and creating a monopoly, is eagerly awaited. AK Party Army Deputy Metin Gündoğdu said “The Competition Authority has now started an investigation. If situations disrupting competition are detected, there are heavy penalties and heavy sanctions related to it. That was our insistence. We see that there are moves that disrupt competition, both our citizens and we. Necessary action will be taken in this regard.” Gündoğdu also gave information about the sanctions to be applied in case of detection of situations that disrupt competition and said, “If the Competition Authority detects a situation that disrupts competition, it imposes heavy fines. No other sanction can be made. If they pay the fine, they will continue their work. There are no other sanctions.” 

Turkey: Producers, Traders and Exporters Lose With Speculation on Hazelnuts

Sakarya Commodity Exchange (STB) Chairman of the Board Adem Sarı stated that the loser with the speculations in hazelnuts is the producer, trader and exporter. Arguing that the hazelnut planting area has increased 3 times in 10 years, President Adem Sarı said in his statement, "Speculations in the hazelnut market, which is our national and strategic agricultural product, which has the largest share in our exports without imported inputs, harms hazelnuts and our country. The planting areas of hazelnut in new geographies have increased approximately 3 times in the last 10 years and continue to increase rapidly. As a matter of fact, the share of our country in world hazelnut production decreased from 85 to 70's. In the projections made, it is predicted that this ratio will decrease to 50 levels in the next 15 years.” (Continue)

Spain: Spanish Hazelnuts Have Landed on the Market at EUR 8/KG

Girona is located on the Mediterranean coast in eastern Spain, close to the French border, and is known for its hazelnut production. However, this year, a 40% decrease in hazelnut production is expected in Girona due to drought, despite irrigation efforts. Fortunately, the quality of the hazelnuts were not affected by the drought. This year, the 28th Hazelnut Festival was held in Girona, where producers sold their hazelnuts for EUR 8/kg. (Continue)


Turkey: Chestnut Harvest Commenced in Erfelek With Lower Yield Than Previous Years

Harvesting of the first chestnuts of the season started in Erfelek, one of the important chestnut production region of Turkey. Erfelek chestnut, also called 'lamb chestnut', is easily separated from its shell and has a unique flavor and bright color. It has been noted that this year the yield in the region was weak compared to previous years due to the spread of the chestnut enemy 'gal bee'. Lamb chestnuts are trading between TL 35-70/kg which is more expensive than previous years due to the lower yield.

Turkey: The Danger of Gall Wasp in Chestnut Production in Turkey

The harvest of lamb chestnuts grown in the Erfelek district of Sinop has started. However, the gall wasp is causing serious damage to production volumes this year. The chestnut gall wasp is known to prevent nut formation by laying eggs on the flower part of the chestnut during the formation of the chestnut in spring, and seriously reduce its quality and yield. The gall wasp came to Yalova from Italy in 2014, and in time it spread all over Turkey. Erfelek Chamber of Agriculture President Ali Koca noted that the yield will decrease significantly this year stating that "our production, which was 500 tons last year, decreased to 350 tons this year in our district. We are worried that it will fall even more next year."

Turkey: Turkey: Ondokuz Mayıs University (OMU), Working to Develop Disease and Pest Resistant Varieties of Chestnuts

Ondokuz Mayıs University (OMU) Ali Nihat Gökyiğit Research Center has been working to develop disease and pest resistant varieties for the "Nebiyan chestnut" grown in the Nebiyan basin of the 19 Mayıs district of Samsun for 12 years. Stating that the research carried out is very important for the future of the Nebiyan chestnut, May 19 Mayor Osman Topaloğlu said, "Chestnut trees, which lost their yield due to serious diseases in the past and dried up over time, started to become more durable with the work done. We want to increase the production of Nebiyan chestnut in our region, together with our Ondokuz Mayıs University, by bringing together disease-free saplings with our producers.” With the project, Ondokuz Mayıs University Ali Nihat Gökyiğit Chestnut Research Station was established. Anatolian chestnut cultivars and genotypes and other chestnut species, for example Chinese chestnut, are located in this research station. Japanese chestnut and hybrids of different chestnut species are being tested. The purpose of establishing the chestnut research station is to develop and register productive and high quality chestnut varieties resistant to diseases and damages. In the studies carried out so far, 4 chestnut varieties have been registered in our Nebiyan region," he said.


South Africa: 2022 Macadamia Crop Estimated to Be 28.5% Higher YoY

Macadamias South Africa (SAMAC) has updated the South African macadamia crop estimate for the 2022 season and is optimistic for the 2022 crop compared to the 2021 and 2020 seasons. The updated forecast for 2022 is 68,522MT dry nut-in-shell which is 10,799MT higher than the first forecast of 57,723MT. The 2021 season ended on 53,320MT dry nut-in-shell which means that the updated forecast for 2022 is 28.5% higher YoY with an added 15,202MT forecasted for 2022.


Spain: Pistachio Stops Depopulation in Almanzora Valley

The 70,000 hectares of almonds in the province of Almería, together with the climatological conditions (winter cold, but also high temperatures in summer), invite the pistachio to settle in the southeast of the peninsula, with young people from inland towns staying in their municipalities when they find an economic livelihood, thus curbing depopulation. It is a great alternative to almond monoculture, as it shares the same means of production. The pistachio sprouts and flowers in May and is harvested around October. The almond campaign is thus extended if the producer also has pistachio trees. 

One hectare of pistachio is equivalent to about six of almond trees in terms of economic profitability. Although prices naturally depend on the year and whether the pistachio is open or closed, the conventional Kerman type with sizes 18-20 is around seven-eight euros per kilogram, and can be multiplied by two if it is organic. Almost 90% of the pistachio consumed in Spain is imported, so its growth is more favorable than that of other fruits, in addition to having a significant demand on all continents.

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