The September Position Report for the US almond industry showed a shipment of 85,447.73MT for the month. This is down 17.2% compared to the 125,645.09MT of September 2021. YTD shipments are down 4.21% and crop receipts are down 8%. The total commitments this year are down 7% compared with the same period last year. California’s uncommitted inventory is up 42%.
In summary, both the US domestic and export markets had a poor shipment month in September. Even India had another weak month after California expected it to be one of the more active markets considering earlier lacklustre numbers. India is now down 39% for the year so far. California needs to build momentum and keep moving volumes, especially considering the large carryover volume from 2021. A stable purchase price level has now been found and buyers are quite active with coming into the market. The Californian industry on the other hand is trying to push the market up. However, the market is likely to see some weakness until next month. The short-term upside is going to be limited.
US almonds prices have once again edged lower but exhibited signs of stabilisation in W41. Buyers are trying to take advantage of attractive raw material prices by slowly securing later shipments when their demands are not yet filled. However, the strong dollar continues to hamper appetite and cautiousness persists.
The European tender season has started and many buyers are now securing prices and volumes for Q1 and Q2, 2023, a position California knows for the most part, is uncovered. The September Position Report will be released on Tuesday the 11th October. It is proving a difficult report to predict. On one hand, shipments will be aided by a larger carryout but hindered by very poor new crop in-shell shipments. Sales are likely to be poor and will once again, point towards an undersold new crop position.
The Ghana India Trade Advisory Chamber (GITAC) has expressed concern over the lack of value addition through processing of the increasing cashew nut exports from Ghana to India. The Chamber’s president, Dominic Oduro-Antwi, told the B&FT that though cashew constitutes almost 80 percent of India’s imports from Ghana, monetary value is lost due to lack of cashew processing plants in the country. Ghana’s major market destinations for cashew are Vietnam and India, with export values of US$533million and US$445million respectively. Indeed, the country’s untapped cashew in shell trade potential is estimated at over US$660million. Trade in cashew, he said, has become one of the main demands from Ghana to India – more than most traditional commodities such as gold. However, processing these raw materials is done in the importing countries. Mr. Oduro argued that a concerted effort must be made by both the public and private sectors to add premium before exporting. “We must begin to change the narrative from raw cashew to processed cashew. The opportunities are present to rake in huge sums if only we prioritise value addition as an agenda,” he noted.
New Raw Cashew Nuts producing regions such as Singida, Dodoma, Tabora, Kigoma, Shinyanga, Iringam Mbeya, Songwe, Njombe, Kilimanjaro, and Morogoro in Tanzania are expected to extend the 2022/23 crop’s seasonality from the current September-January to September-April. The regions have recently started producing, and productivity is expected to increase sharply by 2024.
Raw cashew nut (RCN) imports from West Africa to Vietnam are down with less than 120,000MT imported in September. Vietnam needs about 800,000MT of RCN to process until the 2023 domestic crop harvest starts in March 2023. Vietnam is not anywhere close to this number with regards to imports in the pipeline. However, factories in Vietnam, traders in Europe and the US market are convinced that even if all the RCN is not there for processing, there is adequate ready kernel inventory throughout the supply chain to meet demand.
The Cashew Nut Kernels price continues to drop in W41 in Vietnam to USD 2.40-2.55/lb (W320) for spot deals. Cashew nut exports to China stagnated while the Mong Cai border gate is temporarily suspended while waiting for customs clearance. Simultaneously, the export activities through the Tan Thanh border gate were delayed due to China's National Day holiday (from October 1st - 7th).
Since being granted a geographical indication certificate for Binh Phuoc cashew nut products, this crop has been increasingly invested by the Provincial People's Committee in both quantity and quality. The geographical indication "Binh Phuoc Cashew" has been assigned to 91 commune-level units in the districts and 9 enterprises supplying salted roasted cashews and white kernels. Binh Phuoc cashew nut has been exported to 59 countries, regions and territories. Not only giving planning, orientation, mechanisms and policies, as a state management agency, Binh Phuoc province also directly supports people and businesses in plant varieties, branding, and association.
Specifically, the cashew seed support program, implemented from 2018 to 2022, supported 481,175 cashew trees, equivalent to 2,405 hectares of replanted and newly planted area. Economic cooperation development program - the formation of cashew linkage chains, so far there have been 46 cashew cooperatives, with an area of nearly 20,000 hectares, including about 3,200 hectares of organic cashew.
In the period of 2020 - 2025, Binh Phuoc province sets out a plan to stabilize the existing cashew area; using cashew varieties that have been recognized by the Ministry of Agriculture - Rural Development and localities in new planting and replanting of cashew orchards; step by step improvement and replanting with new varieties yielding from 2.5 tons/ha or more. Total cashew production by 2025 will reach over 316 thousand tons. By 2030, this locality will stabilize the cashew-growing area of about 180,000 ha; continue to improve and replant with new varieties with yield from 2.5 - 4.5 tons/ha or more. In the field of processing, the province has set a target of stabilizing the current design capacity of 500 thousand tons/year; complete the branding of Binh Phuoc cashew products. Deep processing of cashew kernels reaches 10,000 tons/year. Total export turnover reached over 800 million USD.
In September 2022, the export price of raw cashew nuts from producing countries in Africa decreased compared to August 2022. In Benanh, the export price of raw cashew nuts decreased by 75 USD/ton to 1,175 USD/ton; In Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria, the export price of raw cashew nuts decreased by 75 USD/ton to 1,125 USD/ton.
According to China Customs, in August 2022, the country imported cashew nuts with a turnover of over $27 million, up 59.5% compared to August 2021. In particular, China imports cashews from the markets of Vietnam, Togo and Ivory Coast. In the first eight months of 2022, China imported $192.4 million in cashew nuts, an increase of 85.7% over the same period in 2021. In which, China imported approximately 169.42 cashews from Vietnam. million USD, up 85%, market share accounted for 88.05% of total value.
According to ITC, Brazil's cashew exports in the first 7 months of 2022 reached 6.38 thousand tons, worth $41.72 million, down 27.1% in volume and 26.5% in value over the same period last year. in 2021. In which, Brazil's cashew nut exports to the Netherlands and Mexico markets increased, but exports to the US, Argentina and Italy markets decreased.
According to statistics from ITC, in July 2022, France imported 1.17 thousand tons of cashew nuts, worth 8.73 million USD, down 6.9% in volume and 8.4% in value compared to with June 2022; compared to July 2021, down 24.1% in volume and 26.8% in value. In the first 7 months of 2022, France's cashew imports reached 9.53 thousand tons, worth 72.1 million USD, down 2.6% in volume and 6.5% in value over the same period last year. 2021. In July 2022, the average import price of French cashew nuts was only 7,427 USD/ton, down 1.6% compared to June 2022 and down 3.5% compared to July 2021. Generally in the first 7 months of 2022, the average import price of French cashew nuts reached $7,566/ton, down 4.1% over the same period in 2021. In which, the French cashew nut import price decreased from different sources. supply, but increased sharply from Ivory Coast.
Regarding the supply structure in the first 7 months of 2022, France reduced the import of cashew nuts from the following sources: Vietnam, India, the Netherlands, but increased imports from Ivory Coast and Germany sharply. According to ITC, Vietnam is the largest source of cashew nuts for France. In the first 7 months of 2022, France imported approximately 6.12 thousand tons of cashews from Vietnam, worth 45.92 million USD, down 6.8% in volume and 8.2% in value compared to that of Vietnam. same period in 2021. Vietnam's cashew nut market share in total French imports decreased from 67.07% in the first 7 months of 2021 to 64.19% in the first 7 months of 2022.
In the first 7 months of 2022, France sharply increased the import of cashews from Ivory Coast, an increase of 605.8 percent in volume and 766.4% in value compared to the same period in 2021, reaching 844 tons, worth 5. $74 million. The cashew nut market share of Ivory Coast increased sharply from 1.22% in the first 7 months of 2021 to 8.86% in the first 7 months of 2022. The sharp increase of France's cashew imports from Ivory Coast shows that it is likely that France wants to diversify its supply. This may also be a market for supplying cashews to compete with Vietnam's cashews in the future.
Muhlis Arslan, President of Şebinkarahisar Chamber of Agriculture, told Anadolu Agency that the Sebin walnut harvest started about 10 days ago in the Giresun district and will continue until the end of October. Stating that an average of 500-600 tons of harvest was achieved in the past years, Arslan stated that they expect a harvest of around 200-250 tons due to the frost in the spring this year. "Prices are a matter of supply and demand, since the yield is low this year, we estimate that Sebin walnuts will be sold in the market as in-shell between 75 and 100 liras, and as kernels between 150 and 200 liras." Arslan said that 70 percent of the walnuts produced are processed in the pulp and kome facilities in the district, and the rest is sold in other provinces, mainly in Istanbul.
Walnut production in the Bilecik province of Turkey reached 2 thousand 381 tons last year with around 3 thousand 500 tons of walnut production is expected this year, a 47% YoY increase. Bilecik ranks seventh in Turkey in walnut cultivation.
Tekirdag Forestry Operations Manager, Ali Sen, told AA correspondent that the walnut harvest time has begun. Expressing that 1200 tons of yield was obtained last year from 2,500 hectares of degraded forest lands with 375,000 walnut trees, Sen stated that he expects a yield of approximately 1500 tons this year. Sen states that "In recent years, walnut producers have increased. With the support given by the Ministry, degraded forest lands have been increasing significantly. However, plantings are also taking place in private areas. As long as this continues, Turkish walnuts, which are only going to the domestic market, will be seen in Europe and Middle Eastern markets in the following years. This is of great importance.”
Walnuts, which are grown on an area of approximately 120 thousand decares in the Niksar district of Tokat, provide an important input to the economy of the district. In Niksar district, walnut with geographical indication has become a brand and is at the forefront of the income sources of the people of the region. An average of 2 thousand tons of walnuts are harvested annually in the district, which is full of walnut orchards. Shelled walnuts, which are sold at prices ranging from 50-80 liras per kilogram, are popular in big cities. The walnut harvest, which provides approximately 700 million lira of input to the district, continues.
The Republic of Moldova has received permission from the European Commission for the export of Juglans regia L. (walnut) planting material to the territory of the Member States of the European Union. According to Infotag , this was reported by the National Food Safety Agency (ANSA). According to the report, the European Commission's Implementing Regulations have been amended to allow the import into the EU of grafted plants intended for planting and rootstocks up to two years old with bare roots, in vegetative dormancy, without leaves of Juglans regia L. (walnut), originating from Moldova. In this regard, ANSA urged interested parties to "start negotiations with partners from EU member states to establish commercial relations with a view to supplying seedlings."
The price difference between the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) and the free market continues. Hazelnut prices, one of Turkey's most important export products, are stagnant in the free market. The purchase price of hazelnuts in 2022 was announced by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ordu. TMO buys 50 yield levant quality hazelnuts for 52 TL. The free market is lagging behind TMO. In Ordu, on Monday, October 10, 50 yielding shelled hazelnuts are traded at 44 TL. Some traders buy inefficient hazelnuts for 45 TL. The price of pebbled hazelnuts unique to Ordu Gölköy and Gürgentepe regions is traded at different prices due to the high yield. For Çakıldak hazelnut, traders give an inefficient price of 47-48 TL. Prices are expected to increase, but they will not reach the desired levels. Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon, Samsun, Düzce, Zonguldak and Sakarya are among the important hazelnut centers of Turkey. 860 thousand tons of hazelnut harvest is expected this year in Turkey.
Explaining that 70 percent of the hazelnuts harvested this year found a market opportunity in the market, President of the Central Union of Fruit Producers of Turkey and President of Samsun 19 Mayıs Agricultural Hazelnut Producers Association Alaattin Gülal said that 110 thousand tons of the hazelnuts produced were purchased by TMO as of today. "The amount of hazelnuts TMO buys is increasing every year. From our point of view, this is a pleasing situation in favor of the manufacturer. Thus, the producer evaluates the hazelnut at a good price. TMO made a very good purchase this year," he said. Commenting on the quality Gülal said that "The yield is roughly the same as last year. However, due to the rainy weather last year, the hazelnuts rotted. We can say that the yield and quality are better since the air is dry this year, eliminating the possibility of rot.”
EastFruit reported a weak start to the hazelnut export season in August. While the numbers rose in September, they are still underwhelming compared to previous years. Improvement compared to August is a common occurrence, with trade picking up from September when the supply of hazelnuts becomes much larger. The key trends of August remained relevant for September as well: weak volumes, low prices. In September 2022, Georgia exported 2 thousand tons of hazelnut kernels, which is the smallest volume in the last 3 years. According to official trade data, export prices were $4.80/kg. This time the key buyers were Germany (25% of September exports), Armenia (16%) and Spain (13%). Spain paid the highest price, $5.1/kg, but this is likely due to differences in the quality provided. Due to rain in some producing regions and good conditions elsewhere, hazelnut quality in Georgia will vary greatly this season.
The export of in-shell hazelnuts to Italy has again become relevant. Demand from Italy is much lower than in 2021, but higher than in previous years. In September 2022, Georgia exported about 1 thousand tons of inshell hazelnuts, which is 2.3 times less than a year earlier. 90% of exported hazelnuts were sent to Italy at a price of $2.80/kg. The situation on the world market remains difficult. The key driver of the price decline, which was weak demand from buyers, is still a problem. Mundus-Agri reports that Turkish exporters are also having difficulty bargaining with European buyers. The portal also highlights that market giant Ferrero, which is currently buying hazelnuts at 48 Turkish lira/kg ($2.60), is officially accused by some Turkish companies of market manipulation.
The Aydın Commodity Exchange took delivery of the first crops of this season. 6 producers attended the purchase ceremony held in the stock market with 123 kilograms of chestnuts they brought. Chestnuts were bought symbolically by the stock market management at 250 liras per kilogram. Aydın Commodity Exchange Chairman Fevzi Çondur stated that the 2021-2022 season in chestnuts closed at 29.51 lira per kilogram, "This year, a kilogram is predicted to be over 35 lira. We have the same quality as last year. We are a little above last year in terms of yield." he said.
The chestnut campaign has commenced. The vintage is characterized by high quantities, a factor that brings prices to a lower level than the previous year. Demand is struggling to take off due to the still high temperatures. There is a greater presence of larger-sized product on the market this year.
The US pistachio harvest has more or less come to an end. This year’s crop seems to be smaller than expected. Whether the crop size will be around 900 million pounds (408,233.13MT) or less is still to be determined. Due to the pistachios this year coming in smaller, the average sizing is 21/27. Despite the lower volume and smaller sizes, the market has not experienced any major movement in pricing from its current levels. This has caused several packers to pull back from the market and not offer any volumes. The few indications available on the market are at USD 3.65/lbs. FAS, California.
Vietnam exported just under 40,000MT of pistachios in September 2022. This is the lowest export month in two years. Export volumes YTD to the US are down close to 25% and exports to Europe are down 20%. Even the exports to China are down 18% for the year. On the other hand, there has been a slight increase in exports to the Middle East. 2021 was a year that broke all export records, but 2022 seems to be a year of correction and re-balancing of the overstocked pistachio supply chain. Vietnam is clearly reducing production, which can be seen in the current stabilisation of pistachio kernel prices.