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Tridge Analysis

W44: Weekly Nut Update

Updated Nov 8, 2022
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what happened during W44 in the global nut landscape including almond, cashew, walnut, hazelnut, macadamia and pistachio. Globally, almond production is expected to decrease by about 10% to approximately 1.5 million tons for the 2022/23 campaign. Australia could be stuck with a large almond ending stock of 38,000-43,000MT at the end of the marketing year, a stock-to-use ratio of 30-35%. Tanzanian buyers of raw cashew nuts are expecting better rates for inland transportation to the Dar es Salaam port since there was a 2.25% drop in fuel prices. The walnut harvest has come to an end in Kırşehir, Turkey where around 3,500 tons were obtained. For hazelnut, the Turkish Statistical Institute estimates that there would be an increase of 11.8% hence 765,000 tons is expected. The Australian macadamia industry is set to harvest on the Gold Coast this week. In conclusion, Turkish pistachios are required to be processed first before being exported to China.

Almond

Global: World Almond Production Will Fall by 10 Percent

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has estimated a reduction in almond production for the 2022/23 campaign by 10%, lowering forecasts to 1.5 million tons without shells. The harvest has reduced in the United States and the European Union, although in other producing third countries they will go up. The USDA estimates that the world almond exports will increase by almost 10% to 1.1 million tons due to shipments from the United States and Australia to the European Union and China. In the US, production is forecasted to drop 11% to 1.2m tonnes and in the EU, the prediction shows that the final production will decrease by 24%, to 105,000 tons, mainly due to the adverse weather in Spain and Italy, where most of the community production is grown. As for the production of Australia, the second largest producer in the world, the North American department forecasts a harvest of 140,000 tons.

Tridge Analysis: Australia Could Be Stuck With an Oversupply of Almonds, Despite Record Exports

Halfway through the Australian 2022/23 marketing year, 53,215 mt of almonds (on a kernel basis) have been exported, the third highest on record. Exports in August were 15,929 mt, the highest monthly exports on record. However, exports are far below expectations at the beginning of the marketing year. Australia could be stuck with massive ending stocks of close to 38-43,000 mt at the end of the marketing year, a stocks-to-use ratio of 30-35%. (Continue Reading)

US: Shelled Almond Prices Decreased 4% Wow Due to Low Consumer Demand

The market price for US in-shell almonds is currently at the same level or slightly lower than in 2021. The reason is that almond producers sell off raw materials and accept contracts to increase cash flow. On the contrary, shelled almond prices are at levels not seen in a decade. Thus, many producers have stopped shelling almonds as market prices continue to decline, and prices are expected to decrease even further after Christmas. In 2022, the shelled almond market lost 20–23% of its sales YoY due to low consumer demand. Additionally, the large 2022 harvest and issues with exporting the carryover from the 2021 crop continue to concern the market. Prices are down 3–4% WoW in W44, with prices for Standard 5% almond as low as USD 1.51–1.53/lb, Supreme 23/25 at USD 2.17–2.21/lb, and NPX 23/25 at USD 2.2-2.3/lb.

US: Almond Growers to Get a Boost for Planting Cover Crops

Almond growers will soon get a sorely needed ray of sunshine in an otherwise dismal year in the form of access to money to support efforts to expand the habitat and forage for honey bees, and other native pollinators. They now have another pot of money to help them pay for that important work. USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) announced a $1.7 million grant this past summer to the Pollinator Partnership and partners from the California almond, wine, dairy, and cattle industries. The Almond Board is pleased to be a part of this program and, together with Pollinator Partnership, a founding member of the California Pollinator Coalition. The state’s almond growers require more than 2 million hives each year, nearly two-thirds of the captive honey bees in the U.S. “This program does not have the income caps. That has been hard for a lot of almond growers to be able to access NRCS programs,” Lewis says. “You don’t have to be a big almond grower before you hit that income cap that normally is applied to NRCS programs. This opens the window to growers to access funds more easily.”

Spain: The Almond Production Decreased

Last year, the Spanish almond crop was good, 20% higher than the average of the last 5 years. However, the result of 370,000 tons was even lower than in 2020 (-12%), which was due to the April frost. Spain exported 110,000 tons of almonds until September of this year; this includes the re-export of peeled almonds from the United States. In the last sales season , almond prices were higher than the previous year, the highest price was achieved by organic almonds, with a value of over €8/kg. This year, according to the ministry's first preliminary estimates, as a result of the spring frosts and dry weather in 2022, almond production will decrease by 43%, with only 209,000 tons expected. The biggest crop losses are seen in Andalusia (-57%), Valencia region (-55%) and Castile-La Mancha (-40%). The loss is below average in Murcia (-34%) and Aragon (-28%). The first prices of this season show an upward trend, but the value of organic almonds is decreasing

Bulgaria: The Purchase Price of Organic Almonds Is Falling, While the Price of the Nut Is Increasing in Stores

For years, producers of fruits and vegetables in our country have been calling the battle with imports from Turkey, Greece, Macedonia, and Albania an unequal battle. However, it turns out that the market is also complicated for less popular cultures . Veselin has 360 decares with organic almonds. He shared that finding a good price for them this year was not possible. "The buyers I work with have the opportunity to buy from an external market as well. They say that in Spain or Italy the price is 5 euros and either you agree to the proposed amount or they don't take the product from you. In general, the market price of almonds is lower this year" , says the farmer. Currently, the purchase price of organic almonds is between BGN 14 and 15/kg. In organic stores, however, it is sold for 40-50 BGN/kg.

Cashew

Tridge Analysis: Cashew Nut Season Starts in Tanzania With High Hopes

Tanzania is one of the major raw cashew-producing and exporting countries in Africa. The local government strongly supports the production of the golden nut and has set a target to increase its raw cashew nut production to 400,000 mt in the 2022/2023 season, a YoY increase of 69%. The increasing importance of cashew nuts and rising production has increased confidence among the farmers, resulting in farmers rejecting the low prices offered by buyers for their cashews during the first auction of the season. It is likely that the majority of the cashews traded will be in the form of raw kernels in both the domestic and international markets. (Continue Reading)

Tanzania: Farmers Agreed to Auction off Cashews at CORECU Cooperative Union

Tanzanian farmers agreed to sell 1,658MT of raw cashew nuts at the auction conducted at the Coastal Region Cooperative Union (CORECU) on November 2. The highest bid price was USD 0.72/kg and the lowest bid offer was USD 0.71/kg

Tanzania: Low Fuel Prices in November Will Ease Inland Transportation Costs for Raw Cashew Nuts

The government of Tanzania announced a new fuel rate to be used starting on November 2 at USD 1.3/litre, a 2.25% drop MoM from USD 1.33/litre in October. Buyers of raw cashew nuts from the southern regions of Tanzania are expected to have better rates for inland transportation from the southern regions to the Dar es Salaam port.

Tanzania: TANECU Warehouses Are Not Operating at Full Capacity in the 2022/23 Tanzanian Raw Cashew Season

In the 2022/23 raw cashew nut season, most Tandahimba Newala Cooperative Union (TANECU) warehouses in Tanzania are not operating at full capacity because the farmers are sending only a fraction of their harvested raw cashew nuts to these warehouses. Farmers want to first observe the price trends before deciding to send their entire harvest to union warehouses ready for auction.

Tanzania: Farmers Agreed to Auction off 4,822MT of Cashews at Lindi Mwambao Cooperative Union

Tanzanian farmers agreed to sell 4,822MT of raw cashew nuts at the auction conducted at Lindi Mwambao cooperative union on November 1. The highest bid price was USD 0.785/kg and the lowest bid offer was USD 0.717/kg

Tanzania: First Shipment of Cashew Kernels to the United States

On 1 November 2022, the first ever shipment of 8MT of cashew kernels from Tanzania was shipped by air to New Orleans in the US, paving the way for future Tanzanian cashew shipments to the US.

Tanzania: Farmers Refused to Sell Cashews at the TANECU Cooperative Union Auction on October 28

In the auction that took place on October 28, TANECU farmers refused to sell their 2,045 MT of raw cashew nuts as they complained prices were low compared to production costs. The highest bid price was USD 0.94/kg and the lowest price was USD 0.77/kg.

Tanzania: Farmers Agreed to Auction off 10,046 MT of Cashews at MAMCU Cooperative Union

Tanzanian farmers agreed to sell 10,046MT of raw cashew nuts at the auction conducted at MAMCU cooperative union on October 28, following the first auction denial. The highest bid price was USD 0.94/kg, and the lowest bid offer was USD 0.77/kg.

Vietnam: West African Countries Cooperate in Vietnamese Investment and Business in the Cashew Industry

Vietnam and West African countries have many complementary advantages in the cashew export processing industry. This comment was made at the Workshop on potential business-investment cooperation with the West African market in the agricultural product industry, coordinated by the Branch of the Vietnam Federation of Trade and Industry in Ho Chi Minh City in collaboration with the Vietnamese economy integrated industry platform ARISE held on November 2. Mr. Tran Ngoc Liem, Branch Director of the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Ho Chi Minh City, informed that Vietnam's cashew industry has achieved many new advances in both processing technology and export turnover. From a production industry mainly using domestic materials, supplying for domestic consumption and exporting raw products, the cashew industry has developed into an important production, processing, and import-export industry in the economy of Vietnam. The major sources of raw cashew nuts in Vietnam today are West African countries (Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria), followed by Cambodia and Indonesia; in which African countries are the largest and best priced raw cashew nut import markets of Vietnam.

Vietnam: Cashew Industry Is Difficult to Reach the Export Target for the Whole Year

Report at the Workshop on Potential for investment and business cooperation with the West African market in the agricultural products industry, especially the cashew industry, organized by the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI) in Ho Chi Minh City on the morning of 2 November, Mr. Bach Khanh Nhut, Standing Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Cashew Association (VINACAS) said that in the first 10 months of 2022, the number of exported and imported raw cashew nuts decreased compared to the same period in 2021. According to data from the General Department of Customs, from the beginning of the year to October 15, the whole Vietnam cashew industry has exported more than 400,000 tons of cashew kernels of all kinds, with an export turnover of nearly 2.4 billion USD. It is expected that in 2022, it will be difficult for Vietnam to achieve the export target of 3.2 billion USD of cashew kernels, although it has decreased by about 600 million USD compared to the original target of 3.8 billion USD.

Mr. Liem said that there are 15/31 main cashew export markets where Vietnam's cashew export value decreased such as: Ukraine decreased by more than 82%, Russia decreased by more than 34%. In particular, the value of cashew exports to the US was worth US$630 million, accounting for over 89% of the total value of US cashew imports, 27.6% of Vietnam's cashew export market share but decreased by 19% over the same period last year, 2021. Cashew export value to China reached US$305 million, accounting for 85% of the country's total cashew import value, 13.4% market share of Vietnam's cashew exports, but decreased by more than 31% over the same period last year. Although China still increased the total value of cashew imports, in which increased imports from the West African market

Vietnam: Imports Cambodian Raw Cashew Nuts to Process and Later Export to Other Markets

Due to the lack of processing plants that meet international standards in Cambodia, half of the raw cashew nuts imported into Vietnam come from Cambodia. These nuts are later processed and exported to the United States, China, and other countries. In 2022, the classification of cashew nuts in China's domestic market is more detailed than that of European and American countries.

Turkey: Cashew Prices Are Expected to Increase Towards the End of November

Raw cashew kernels in size WW320 from Vietnam are priced at USD 6.4/kg at the Mersin port prior to import and around USD 8.2/kg at wholesale. The prices are expected to increase towards the end of November due to the expected surge in consumer spending with Christmas and New Year's Eve approaching. Cashew importers and wholesalers are expected to experience an increase in cashew sales in late November and early December from Turkish retailers and sellers who will increase their stock levels in preparation for the expected demand increase.

China: Cashew Nut Import Consumption Has Decreased Since 2018

According to the Specialized Committee for Nuts and Roasted Seeds of China National Food Industry Association (CNSA), 80% of China's cashew nut consumption relies on imports. For 12 years, Vietnam has been the top exporter, the total annual import quantity in China is around 48K MT, and the average import price is USD 6.5K/MT in 2021, which has had a decreasing trend since 2018. China has cashew nut planting in Hannan, Yunnan, Guanxi, and Guangdong. However, the yield is limited to meet the local demand. China will have to continue importing cashew nuts to fulfil demand.

Walnut

Turkey: Walnut Harvest Completed in Kırşehir

Harvest has been completed in Kırşehir, one of the important walnut production centres of Turkey, with the collection of foreign varieties that wake up late. The harvest, which started in the middle of September from the villages on the shores of the Hirfanlı Dam Lake in the centre and Kaman district, ended at the end of October. Provincial Director of Agriculture and Forestry Duran Seçen told Anadolu Agency (AA) that some walnut trees, especially in stream beds and hollow areas, were adversely affected due to agricultural frost in winter and spring this year. Seçen noted that last year, approximately 4,500 tons of walnut production was obtained in Kırşehir, and around 3,500 tons of products were obtained this year.

Moldova: The Start of the Mass Export Season of Moldovan Walnuts Is Delayed Due to Low Demand Prices

In Moldova, the start of mass harvesting of walnut kernels for export has been postponed for the third week. Taking into account the relatively early ripening and the start of the harvesting campaign, representatives of the Union of Associations of Nut Producers of Moldova assumed that the first large batches of walnut kernels for deliveries to the European Union would be formed on the domestic market of the country no later than mid-October, that is, in terms close to usual. However, according to EastFruit, this did not happen. Market operators note that traders are making small purchases of extra light varietal walnut kernels from specialised farms. Demand prices are not advertised, but they are known, and quite high (up to 110 lei/g, $5.7/kg). However, according to buyers - "these are single orders of a niche product for a specific end user, they should not be used to draw conclusions about the starting working level of purchase prices for mass products - an unsorted walnut kernel from individuals, households and other small and medium scale sellers.

Hazelnut

Georgia: Record Support for Hazelnuts

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili announced that he plans to allocate 7 million dollars (127 million TL) to support hazelnut production in Georgia. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili said on Monday that his government plans to allocate about 20 million lari ($7 million) to subsidize the costs necessary for the maintenance and cultivation of hazelnuts to encourage domestic production.

Georgia: Hazelnut Cadastre to Be Compiled Which Will Simplify the Support of the Hazelnut Industry

In the coming month, Georgia will begin work on compiling an inventory of hazelnuts. The Georgian Hazelnut Growers Association (GHGA) will be actively involved in the preparation of this inventory, along with the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Agriculture of Georgia and local authorities. The cadastre will include data on the number of hazelnut orchards in Georgia, their location and boundaries, their owners (whether the owner or tenant), the age of orchards, hazelnut varieties, yields, etc. The cadastre is planned to be prepared by the next spring, that is, by the beginning of spring agricultural events in hazelnut orchards. According to Georgy Todua, the presence of such a database will improve the coordination of activities for the care of hazelnuts and its protection from diseases and pests, will help in planning the steps of the state and the Association to support the industry, which, ultimately, will have a positive impact on the competitiveness of hazelnuts in international markets. markets, and on the income of hazelnut growers.

Georgia: Owners of Small Hazelnut Plantations Will Receive Cash Subsidies, Larger Ones Will Receive Preferential Agricultural Loans

Farmers who own hazelnut orchards with an area of ​​3 hectares or more will have the opportunity to receive preferential agricultural loans to replenish working capital within the framework of the program. The head of the ministry, Otar Shamugia, explained the reasons for the decision to implement a new state program in the hazelnut production sector. According to him, in 2017, as a result of the spread of the marble bug, the hazelnut industry faced serious problems both in terms of yield and quality of nuts, and, accordingly, the level of exports. Large-scale measures to combat the marble bug carried out annually in the country have led to positive results, and since 2019, the yield of hazelnuts and its exports have been growing. In 2021, hazelnut export revenues exceeded $115 million. But in 2022, “based on various factors, and these were mainly climatic conditions, due to which farmers were unable to properly carry out hazelnut care activities, yields and quality has gone down again. And against the backdrop of declining export value. In view of all this, it is important to support our farmers so that from the spring of next year they can carry out all the actions that are required to obtain a quality crop,” the minister stressed.

Turkey: There Is a Decline in Hazelnut Exports

The export figures of hazelnuts, which are not satisfied with the price of this season, are not encouraging. Since the beginning of the season, there has been a significant decrease in the amount of hazelnut exports and the income obtained compared to previous years. According to the statement made by the Black Sea Exporters' Association (KİB), 31,490 tons of hazelnuts (inside/processed) were exported in October, and USD 178,790,574 of foreign currency inflow was provided in return. From September 1, when the export season started, to October 31, 56, 662 tons of hazelnuts (inside/processed) were exported in two months, and USD 314,938,169 were obtained in return. According to the same period, the figures for the last two years are as follows; September/October 2021; Income from 68,726 tons (inner/processed) hazelnuts is USD 451,942,712. September/October 2020: USD 399,223,148 in exchange for 58,118 tons (inside/processed) hazelnuts.

Turkey: Approximately 249 Thousand Tons of Hazelnuts Were Traded on the Commodity Exchanges

In the August-September period of this year, over 248 thousand tons of hazelnuts were traded in the commodity exchanges. In the written statement made by Giresun Commodity Exchange, information was given about the hazelnut sales transactions carried out in 21 commodity exchanges in the regions where hazelnuts are produced. Accordingly, 248 thousand 987 tons of hazelnuts were sold in the stock markets between August and September 2022. The highest number of transactions was realized in Sakarya with 57 thousand 17 tons.

Turkey: Hazelnut Market Continues to Be Stagnant in the Free Market

The hazelnut market continues to be stagnant in the free market. In Ordu, the price of hazelnuts with 50 yields remains unchanged today, trading between 44 and 44.50 TL. Turkish Grain Board will close the appointment system for hazelnuts on 30 November. TMO, on the other hand, will end its hazelnut purchase as of 31 December. TMO has so far purchased 150 thousand in-shell hazelnuts from more than 50 purchasing centers. Hazelnut producers are already wondering what will happen to the market when Toprak Mahsulleri stops buying hazelnuts. Producers, who say that the free market is 7-8 liras below TMO even during the period when it continues to buy hazelnuts, are worried that the price of hazelnuts will fall below 40 liras in traders after it stops buying hazelnuts.

Turkey: Hazelnut Statement From the Turkish Statistical Institute

According to the statement made by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), the 2022 hazelnut harvest is expected to be 765,000 tons. In the previous year, it was announced as 684,000 tons. TURKSTAT announced the '2nd Forecast of Crop Production' which is estimated that there would be an increase of 11.8 percent in hazelnuts, one of the hard-shelled fruits. 

Turkey: Kdz. Conducted Trainings on Increasing Yield in Hazelnut Started in Ereğli

The teams of the Agriculture Directorate of Ereğli, Zonguldak, started to give theoretical and practical training to the farmers with the training on "Increasing Efficiency in Hazelnuts". Kdz. It has been reported that theoretical and practical trainings on "Increasing Efficiency in Hazelnut" have been started under the coordination of Ereğli Directorate of Agriculture and Forestry and with the support of Zonguldak Provincial Directorate of Agriculture and Forestry. Kdz. In the statement made by the Ereğli District Directorate of Agriculture, Kdz.

Turkey: Shock Development in the Price of Hazelnuts

Following a flat course since the beginning of the season, hazelnut prices increased by 1 lira in the last two weeks, and some traders increased up to 45 TL. The expectation that the rise would continue ended in disappointment on the last day of October. The 50-yield shelled hazelnuts, which started to fall shockingly in the free market in Ordu, are traded at 44 TL on Monday, October 31st. According to the yield, the prices are as follows; 50 yield 44.00 TL, 51 yield 44.8 TL, 52 yield 45.76 TL, 53 yield 46.64 TL, 54 yield 47.52 TL, 55 yield 48.40 TL, 56 yield 49.28 TL. The inefficient price may be higher. Especially Gölköy and Gürgentepe Çıldırdak hazelnuts can go up to 47 TL without efficiency. However, this situation in the price of hazelnuts caused the reaction of the producers.

Turkey: Hazelnut Prices in Sakarya Remain Considerably Low in Private Trade

The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) announced their purchase price of hazelnut on August 25 with a yield ratio of 50% for USD 2.79/kg. However, the purchase price of the private traders for the same quality of the hazelnut from the Sakarya region in W43 remains considerably low at USD 2.31/kg. Until W43, TMO has purchased 150,000 MT of hazelnuts from growers, and the purchases are expected to continue until the end of December.

Macadamia

Australia: Price Pressure on Macadamia Nut as Global Supply Ramps Up

The macadamia industry is entering nervous territory and growers are keeping a close eye on falling wholesale prices. With the Australian macadamia industry set to gather on the Gold Coast this week, the likely topic on everyone's lips will be markets. Not since 1990 has the macadamia industry faced a price below input cost, as world supply of cheaper nuts, notably almonds, continue to challenge the market. Meanwhile, demand slump as a result of COVID-19, and increased production in South Africa, remains unresolved and those who've been around before reckon it will be 2024 before the mood lifts.

Pistachio

Iran: Iranian Specialists Will Help Uzbekistan Develop the Cultivation of Saffron, Pistachio and Potatoes

To date, mutually beneficial relations have been established between the Republic of Uzbekistan and Iran in a number of areas, in particular, in the field of agriculture. The Memorandum of Cooperation in the field of agriculture, signed with Iran at the Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in September of this year, is in force. At the end of October, the Minister of Agriculture of the Republic of Uzbekistan Aziz Voitov and the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Iran to Uzbekistan Hamidm Nayirobadi discussed the further development of cooperation in the agricultural sector. The minister highlighted the achievements of Iranian scientists and specialists in the field of saffron and pistachio cultivation. In this regard, in order to introduce this experience in Uzbekistan, he proposed to establish cooperation between the Scientific Institute of Saffron at the University of Haidari Torbat of Iran and the Research Institute of Plant Genetic Resources of Uzbekistan.

Turkey: Siirt Pistachio Provides the Economy With an Annual Income of Over 7 Billion Liras

Siirt pistachio is in high demand in the country and abroad, providing the country's economy with an annual income of over 7 billion liras. Stating that Siirt pistachio contributes greatly to the provincial and national economy, Siirt Chamber of Agriculture Chairman, Hüseyin Günbat said that this year's pistachio harvest is around 30 thousand tons. Expressing that while the pistachio is sold for 200 TL due to the increasing demand from abroad and domestically, they expect it to increase to 250 TL. Günbat said, "According to the statistics of the Chamber of Agriculture, our pistachio harvest is around 30 thousand tons. Our pistachio this year is of higher quality than in previous years. We have obtained a pistachio. There is a high demand for Siirt pistachio in Turkey and abroad. This contributes approximately 7 billion TL to the country's economy. As farmers, we are very pleased with this situation. There is a great demand for Siirt pistachios, especially from abroad, which makes our farmers and our Chamber of Agriculture extremely satisfied. The price of processed pistachios is currently between 200 and 240 TL. Unprocessed peanuts are around 165-170 TL".

Turkey: Turkish Pistachios Are Required to Be Processed to Be Exported to China

According to the feedback from the importers of Turkish products in China, most Turkish pistachios are exported to Europe and the United States. Unprocessed/raw pistachios are prohibited from being imported into China, so all imported Turkish pistachios are processed before entry. Some Chinese companies export Turkish products and act as an agent for import and export procurement, factory inspection, and other international trade-related services.

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