W45: Canola & Rapeseed Update

In W45 in the canola landscape, from July 1 to November 2, the European Union (EU) witnessed a 3% year-on-year (YoY) increase in vegetable oil imports, reaching a total volume of 2.39 million metric tons (mmt). Specifically, the EU imported 173.7 thousand metric tons (mt) of rapeseed oil during this period, reflecting a 9% YoY decrease.

From Jan-23 to Sept-23, Russia significantly increased its rapeseed oil exports to foreign markets, reaching 1.3 mmt, a 2.1-fold increase compared to the same period in 2022. China remains the leading buyer, with shipments to China increasing 2.9 times in terms of volume, exceeding 1.1 mmt over the first nine months of 2023. In 2022, Russia achieved a record rapeseed harvest of 4.6 mmt, leading to a surplus of raw materials. Despite the export ban on rapeseed until the spring of 2024, the surplus was processed, resulting in a record volume of rapeseed oil production of about 1.5 mmt, a 75% increase from the 2021/22 season. The majority of this production was exported, with Turkey emerging as another significant buyer, importing 9.2 thousand mt of Russian rapeseed oil in the first three quarters of 2023.

In addition, Russia's Volgograd region has achieved impressive quality results in rapeseed and soybean production for the 2022/23 season. The rapeseed harvest reached 277.5 thousand mt, boasting a yield of over 1.7 mt per hectare (ha). Assessments from the Grain Quality Assessment Centre reveal that 44.5% of the rapeseed crop has been tested, with 94% classified as first-class grain and only 6% falling into class 2.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) estimated the rapeseed harvest at 4.2 mmt, with exports projected at 3.7 mmt. However, the Ministry of Agriculture reported a slightly lower collection of 4 mmt of oilseeds in 2023. Moreover, the winter crop-sowing season is nearing completion. Winter rape sowing has concluded across all regions, with a total of 1.14 ha planted. In the Kherson Region, winter crop sowing is ongoing, with over 29 thousand ha out of the planned 64 thousand ha sown with wheat and rapeseed. Additionally, in areas previously occupied and subsequently de-occupied in the Kherson region, farmers have completed grain harvesting and are finalizing the collection of technical crops. The harvest includes nearly 59 thousand mt of grain crops, including 4.4 thousand mt of rapeseed.

In Sept-23, Canada experienced a surge in canola oil exports, increasing 60% YoY to 293 thousand mt, reaching the highest monthly volume in the past six months. The robust export trend continued in the Jul-23 to Sept-23 period, with total exports reaching 830 thousand mt, reflecting a 39% YoY increase. This surge was attributed to robust demand from the US, driven by a shortage in its domestic market. Consequently, the US share in total canola oil exports from Canada rose to 95% from Jul-23 to Sept-23 and reached 88% for the entire 2022/23 marketing year (MY), compared to 75% in the previous season. Meanwhile, Canada reduced canola oil shipments to China to 140 thousand mt in the 2022/23 MY.

Lastly, Australia achieved a record canola export volume at the close of the 2022/23 season, reaching 6.16 mmt, accounting for 12.9% of total agricultural exports. The European Union (EU) stands out as the primary export destination, receiving 3.2 mmt.