W45: Maize (Corn) Update

In W45 in the maize (corn) landscape, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised their projections for global corn production in the 2023/24 season to 1.22 billion metric tons (mt), up from the previous forecast of 1.21 billion mt. Correspondingly, world corn exports are expected to increase to 199.62 million metric tons (mmt), reflecting a rise of 3.37 mmt. The Nov-23 USDA report projects a 2.59 mmt increase in final balances, reaching 314.99 mmt. Similarly, Ukraine's corn harvest for the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) is estimated to rise by 1.5 mmt to 29.5 mmt, with export estimates increasing by 500 thousand mt to 20 mmt and potential growth in ending stocks to 6.43 mmt.

Furthermore, US corn production is estimated at 386.97 mmt, reflecting an increase of 4.32 mmt. The export forecast has been raised by 1.27 mmt to 52.71 mmt, and ending stocks are projected to be at the level of 54.75 mmt, up by 1.13 mmt. The USDA reports that corn in Ohio is currently rated at 87% in good to excellent condition, with 45% already harvested for grain. Despite a slight decrease in moisture content, which remains higher than average at 22%, Wisconsin is experiencing delays in harvest activities due to elevated moisture levels in late-maturing crops. Nationwide, corn harvesting in the US in 2023 is at 81% completion, slightly trailing the progress observed in the previous year.

In the upcoming 2023/24 marketing year (MY), Brazil is projected to experience reduced corn production, attributed to pressure on profit margins for producers. The anticipated 4% decrease in output, totaling 130 mmt, contrasts with the previous year's record crop of 135 mmt. Despite a projected 2 mmt decrease in corn exports, consumption is expected to surge to a record 77.5 mmt in the 2022/23 MY.

Moreover, corn planting in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, reached 78% of the planned area. In some regions, the planting of the crop has already been completed, and farmers are now preparing to supplement the estimated area during the off-season. The development of the crop has been satisfactory, with positive indicators in several areas of the state. In the Northwest quadrant, sunny days in W44 led to faster growth of corn plants. This short period of sunlight resulted in the expansion of leaves, intense green color, and thickening of plant stems, signaling healthy development. Currently, 13% of corn crops in Rio Grande do Sul are in the combustion phase, while 87% are in the germination and vegetative phase.

In Russia's Stavropol Territory, farmers have successfully completed corn harvesting across 132.6 thousand hectares (ha), yielding 828.2 thousand mt. The Novoaleksandrovsky district accounted for a significant portion of the corn harvest, producing 142.8 thousand mt.

Lastly, the National Food Agency of Indonesia has disclosed plans to import 171 thousand mt of corn, with the first shipment of 20 thousand mt scheduled to arrive at Tanjung Perak Port in Surabaya, East Java, on November 15, 2023. This is based on recommendations from the Ministry of Agriculture and direct instructions from President Joko Widodo, who has authorized the importation of 250 thousand mt of corn.

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