W45: Rice Update

Published Nov 18, 2023
W45: Rice Update

In W45 in the rice landscape, the price of India's 5% broken parboiled rice has continued its fifth consecutive week of decline, now ranging between USD 490 and USD 500 per metric ton (mt). This marks a decrease compared to the previous week's range of USD 495 to USD 505/mt. The decline is attributed to the significant influx of supplies from the new harvest in northern Indian states, contributing to the overall downward pressure on rice prices. Exporters are capitalizing on a weak rupee, enabling them to make adjustments to export prices. Additionally, the Indian government recently announced an extension of the 20% tax rate on exported parboiled rice until March 2024. Initially, this tax rate was set to expire on October 15, 2023. There is a growing likelihood that the Indian government will further extend its rice export restriction policy to control food prices in the domestic market.

Meanwhile, Vietnam's 5% broken rice is priced at USD 653/mt, Thai rice at USD 560/mt, and Pakistani rice at USD 563/mt. For 25% broken rice, Vietnam's price stood at USD 638/mt, Thai rice at USD 520/mt, and Pakistani rice at USD 488/mt. In terms of rice export projections, the Ministry of Industry and Trade in Vietnam anticipates that rice exports in Oct-23 will reach 700 thousand mt, equivalent to USD 433 million. This represents no change in volume and a notable increase of 27% year-on-year (YoY) in value. For the first ten months of 2023, Vietnam has exported approximately 7.1 mmt of rice, valued at nearly USD 4 billion. This reflects a 17% increase in volume and an impressive 35% increase in value compared to the same period in 2022. This milestone is the highest figure recorded in 34 years since Vietnamese rice entered the world market.

In Indonesia, the total rice stock in Bulog reached 1.4 mmt. The rice stock is expected to increase further with the entry of 600 thousand mt of rice in Dec-23, constituting an additional import of 1.5 mmt in 2023, beyond the initial import quota of 2 mmt in early 2023. The remaining approximately 900 thousand mt are scheduled to be imported in mid-Jan-24. Moreover, the government is committed to promptly distributing the rice stock to the public to maintain the prices of this essential food staple at both the producer and consumer levels.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the area sown with rice in South Korea for the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) is estimated to be 708 thousand hectares (ha), a slight decrease from the 727 thousand ha in the previous season. The country is projected to harvest 4.93 mmt of rice in husks from Nov-23 to Oct-24, resulting in 3.68 mmt of processed rice. This represents a decline from the 2022/23 season, which recorded 4.99 mmt in husk and 3.76 mmt processed rice. The gradual decline in rice harvest is attributed to the Korean government's initiatives to diversify agricultural production, particularly towards cultivating soybeans and wheat. This shift in focus is influencing a reduction in rice cultivation. Furthermore, South Korea is expected to import 488 thousand mt of rice in the 2023/24 season, a notable increase from the 270 thousand mt imported in the previous commercial year.

By clicking “Accept Cookies,” I agree to provide cookies for statistical and personalized preference purposes. To learn more about our cookies, please read our Privacy Policy.