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Tridge Analysis

W45: Weekly Nut Update

Updated Nov 15, 2022
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what happened during W45 in the global nut landscape including almond, cashew, walnut, hazelnut, chestnut and macadamia. India’s demand for almonds decreased by 6% after it imported 114,836MT from the US and Australia in the first 9 months of 2022. In the US in W45, almond prices stood at USD 2/lb, dropping from USD 2.06-2.09/lb in W44. Tanzanian cashew producers auctioned 2,882MT with the highest bid price at USD 0.86/kg and the lowest bid offer at USD 0.79/kg through TANECU Cooperative Union while TAMCU expects a 26.5% production increase from 25,284MT to 32,000MT in the 2022/23 season. The USDA predicts that global production of in-shell walnuts will reach 2.6 million tons in the 2022/23 campaign which is 12% higher than the last campaign. For hazelnuts, Georgian exports recorded a 30% decrease after earning $14 million from hazelnut sales while Turkey experienced a 6% decrease in quantity and a 23% decrease in value. In Italy, the chestnut cultivation of the IGP area is estimated at approximately 2,500 hectares, almost all destined for fruit production, equal to about 20% of the total UAA. Lastly, the Dak Lak province of Vietnam officially exported their first batch of macadamia nuts to Japan.

Almond 

Tridge Analysis: India’s Demand for Almonds Is Waning, Despite Dirt-Cheap Prices

Almond prices are under downward pressure globally, pushed lower by a large carry-over from the 2021/22 season, global production which could again top 1.5 million mt in 2022/23, and weak demand. In the world’s top importer, India, consumer demand has fallen amid economic uncertainty, and even with almond prices at multi-year lows, importers remain on the sideline. India imported only 114,836 mt of almonds from the US and Australia in the first 9 months of 2022. This is a 6% drop from the same period last year from India’s top two suppliers. (Continue Reading)

US: Low Almond Prices Reported in 2022

According to the research conducted in the US, Almond prices are at their lowest for several years. The California Blend SSR 27/30 fixed price over Q1-2 2023 concluded at USD 1.67/lb FAS, the lowest reported price since 2013. The standard 5% almonds are also facing a low price, at a level that has not been seen since 2011. Overall shelled prices have been low this 2022, and producers are anticipating harvest and pricing reports in the hopes of prices rising and better deals.

US: Almond Prices Keep Dropping in W44

The almond prices in the United States continue to drop for some grades. In W44, some reports indicate that the Standard almond prices have dropped by 5% YoY and Extra by 20% YoY. In W45, almond prices stood at USD 2/lb, dropping from USD 2.06-2.09/lb prices in W44. Nut companies are concerned as export deals are not being made, causing an overall decline in exports.

Spain: Almond Production in the Current Campaign Will Fall by 44%

Union of Farmers and Ranchers Unions, forecasts that the current almond campaign, 2022/23, will suffer a drop in production of more than 44%, 40% compared to the average of the last five years, as reported in a statement. Specifically, the agrarian organization has indicated among the causes of this collapse the effect of the frosts in April together with the effects of the drought in the irrigated areas of the Guadalquivir Valley.

Spain: The Almond Market Stagnates

The pre-Christmas dates are traditionally accompanied by a great movement in the markets and, especially in the almond trade. But in a year gripped by drought, high prices due to the war and repeated announcements of a recession, the almond market is the first to show signs of alarm. The Sectoral Council of Nuts of Agro-food Cooperatives of Andalusia stated that although the almond harvest this season is less than last year, with losses estimated at between 30 and 50%, due to spring frosts, the effects of drought and high temperatures, prices are below those of the previous year. While there are enormous difficulties in marketing the national production, estimated at 62,000 tons of grain almonds according to the capacity sent by the National Table of Nuts, there is a constant increase in imports of American almonds, which are sold without the obligation to identify their provenance on the label. The European Union is the first destination for California almonds (with 40% of the total) and, within Europe, the main market is Spanish. According to a report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), for 2020/21 they estimated exports of 287,000 tons.

Cashew

Tanzania: Farmers Agreed to Auction off 2,882MT of Cashews at the TANECU Cooperative Union

Tanzanian farmers agreed to sell 2,882MT of standard-grade raw cashew nuts at the auction conducted on November 10 by TANECU, a cooperative union based in Mtwara Region's Newala and Tandahimba districts. The highest bid price was USD 0.86/kg (TZS 2012), and the lowest bid offer was USD 0.79/kg (TZS 2002).

Tanzania: Farmers Agreed to Auction off 8,968MT of Cashews at the MAMCU Cooperative Union

Tanzanian farmers agreed to sell 8,968MT of standard-grade raw cashew nuts at the auction conducted on November 11 by MAMCU, a cooperative union based in Masasi, Nanyamba in Mtwara districts. The highest bid price was USD 0.86/kg, and the lowest bid offer was USD 0.79/kg.

Tanzania: Farmers Agreed to Auction off 417MT of Cashews at the CORECU Cooperative Union

Tanzanian farmers agreed to sell 417MT of standard-grade raw cashew nuts at the auction conducted on November 9 at CORECU Cooperative Union, based in the coastal region. The highest bid price was USD 0.79/kg, and the lowest bid offer was USD 0.78/kg.

Tanzania: Farmers Agreed to Auction off 1,507MT of Cashews at the TAMCU Cooperative Union

Tanzanian farmers agreed to sell 1507.7MT of standard-grade raw cashew nuts at the auction conducted on November 10 at TAMCU Cooperative Union, based in Tunduru District, Ruvuma region. The highest bid price was USD 0.82/kg, and the lowest bid offer was USD 0.80/kg.

Tanzania: TAMCU Expects a 26.5% Increase in Raw Cashew Nut Production in 2022/23 Season

Tunduru Agricultural Marketing Cooperative Union (TAMCU) is expected to increase raw cashew nut production in Tanzania by 26.5% from 25,284MT in the 2021/22 season to 32,000MT in the 2022/23 season.

Tanzania: The First TAMCU Raw Cashew Nut Auction Will Take Place on November 9

The first 2022/23 raw cashew nut auction under Tunduru Agricultural Marketing Cooperative Union (TAMCU) is expected to take place on November 9, 2022, which is one week later than expected. The delay was caused by low raw cashew nut collections at the selected union warehouses.

Tanzania: Farmers Agreed to Auction off 3,575MT of Cashews at the TANECU Cooperative Union

Tanzanian farmers agreed to sell 3,575MT of standard-grade raw cashew nuts at the auction conducted on November 4 at TANECU, a cooperative union based in the Newala and Tandahimba districts. The highest bid price was USD 0.82/kg, and the lowest bid offer was USD 0.81/kg

Tanzania: Farmers Agreed to Auction off 1,747MT of Cashews at the LINDI MWAMBAO Cooperative Union

Tanzanian farmers sold 1,747MT of raw cashew nuts during an auction conducted on November 5 under LINDI MWAMBAO, a cooperative union based in the coastal districts of Kilwa and Lindi. The highest bid price was USD 0.80/kg (TZS 1840/kg ), and the lowest bid price was USD 0.80/kg (TZS 1836/kg).

Tanzania: Farmers Agreed to Auction off 7,402MT of Cashews at the RUNALI Cooperative Union

Tanzanian farmers agreed to auction 7,402MT of raw cashew nuts during an auction conducted on November 6 under the RUNALI cooperative union. The highest bid price was USD 0.854/kg, and the lowest bid price was USD 0.849/kg.

Tanzania: Farmers Agreed to Auction off 6,169MT of Cashews at the MAMCU Cooperative Union on November 4

Tanzanian farmers agreed to sell 6,169.23MT of raw cashew nuts at the auction conducted on November 4 at MAMCU, a cooperative union based in the Masasi, Nanyamba, and Mtwara districts. The highest bid price was USD 0.83/kg, and the lowest bid offer was USD 0.79/kg.

Vietnam: Trade Transactions With Cambodia Increased Sharply

The cashew nut growing area in Cambodia at its peak reached 300,000 hectares, but due to unstable raw cashew prices and weak production organization, the area was reduced to just over 100,000 hectares. Cambodia wishes to have Vinacas support in the selection of varieties, cultivation techniques, harvesting and preservation techniques and more in order to increase the yield and quality of cashews, as well as ensure profits for participating farmers. The program of 1 million hectares of cashew in Cambodia was quickly implemented soon after. With cooperative efforts from both sides, up to now Cambodia's raw cashew production has skyrocketed. According to data from the General Department of Customs and many other statistics, in 2021 Cambodia will export approximately 1 million tons of raw cashew nuts to Vietnam, becoming the largest supplier of raw cashew nuts to Vietnam. According to Vinacas, the biggest problem of Vietnam's cashew industry in recent years is the lack of raw material areas, labor shortages, and labor for harvesting and preliminary processing. The domestic output of raw cashew nuts can only meet 25-30% of the factories' demand for raw materials, the rest must be imported. With the advantage of geographical location, climate, soil and varieties, if there is good coordination and organization, Cambodia can produce 1 million tons of raw cashew, surpassing Ivory Coast and becoming the largest raw cashew producer in the world, and becoming an important supplier for Vietnam.

Vietnam: Cashew Kernel Prices Start to Increase in W45 Due to Low Supply

In W45, cashew kernel prices began to increase in Vietnam. The stock of cashew kernel in Vietnam started to decrease, creating a price rise. Additionally, many companies stopped producing since it was no longer economically feasible to convert RCN into kernels. Africa has a good supply of cashew kernel, but the price is still too high for Vietnamese buyers. One of the top cashew kernel processors in Vietnam reported that in W45, they closed the deal for W320 cashews at UD 2.63/lb for a long-term contract for more than 5 FCL over six months. In W45, this price is a little bit high for the industry price, but smaller producers might start to follow this price trend.

Walnut

Global: World Production of Walnuts Will Reach 2.6 Million Tons

According to the USDA, in the 2022/23 season, world production of walnuts will reach 2.6 million tons (in shell), which is 12% more than last season. The production in China, the second largest producer of walnuts, is estimated to increase by 27% from the previous year in 2022/23 to 1.4 million tonnes due to favorable growing conditions. China's walnut exports are set to rise 6% YoY to 225,000 tonnes due to increased shipments to China's key markets, including Kazakhstan, the UAE and Turkey. At the same time, walnut production in the USA will decrease by 1% to 653,000 tons. Still, that's a 1% increase from the 5-year average. Walnut exports from the US are forecast to fall 3% year-on-year to 485,000 tonnes due to lower shipments to the EU, Turkey and the UAE.

China: Xinjiang In-Shell Walnut Exports to Turkey Are Restricted Due to the Lockdown, Causing a Supply Shortage

The Xinjiang Province of China, which produces type 185 walnuts, has been under lockdown since August. As a result, walnuts from Xinjiang could not be transported to the seaport by exporters and traders. Even though Chinese-type 185 walnuts are in demand in Turkey, most exporters are unable to supply clients unless they were exported before the lockdown. In Tianjin, the W44 FOB price is at USD 2050/MT for 30mm+ in shell type 185 walnut. For Turkish buyers, the same product is being offered at USD 2390/MT CFR Mersin for premium quality. Ordinary quality is being offered at around USD 2300/MT CFR Mersin.

Turkey: 27 Thousand Tons of Walnuts Were Harvested in the OğUzlar District of ÇOrum

About 8 percent of the walnut production of Corum', 27 thousand tons of walnuts were harvested in the district this year. Oğuzlar walnut, one of the geographical signs of Çorum, finds buyers while it is still on the branch during the harvest period. The saplings of the Oğuzlar walnut, which stands out with its easily cracked thin shell, flavor, white color and high oil content, are also preferred by the farmers. The harvest period, which lasted about 30 days in the district, ended with the drying of walnuts in the streets. Pointing out that the walnut harvest requires intensive labor, Hantal said, "We meet 8 percent of Turkey's walnut production. Last year, we produced around 26 thousand tons of walnuts. This year, we obtained around 27 thousand tons of walnuts." 

Ukraine: Walnut Production Will Reduce, but Increase Exports, According to USDA

According to the Tree Nuts report of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), in the 2022/23 season, exports of walnuts from Ukraine will increase by almost 60% to 95 thousand tons. At the same time, nut production in Ukraine is forecasted to fall by 17% to 96 thousand tons due to a sharp reduction in areas in certain areas of Donetsk, Zaporozhye, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv and Kherson regions after the Russian invasion in February 2022, reports AgroTimes.

Georgia: 2022 Is a Watershed Year for Industrial Walnut Production

This year, 2022, has become a turning point in Georgia for the industrial production of walnuts. According to the co-founder of the Georgian Almond and Walnut Producers Association (AWPA) Leri Tabatadze, this year's harvest, which, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to 2.5 thousand tons, will allow replacing about 90% of imports in the Georgian market with a domestic product. 

Hazelnut

Georgia: October Hazelnut Exports Are Not Very Favorable

In October 2022, Georgia exported $14 million worth of hazelnuts, which is 30% less than in the same month of 2021. The export of the kernel still dominates the export of Georgian hazelnuts, but this time its share is not so large. In-shell hazelnut buyers from Italy are again active. Kernel exports were $9 million, while in-shell hazelnut exports jumped to $5 million in October 2022. On an annualized basis, kernel exports were down 40%, while in-shell hazelnut exports were up 8% in value. In terms of volumes, kernel volumes are down 27% compared to October 2021, but in-shell volumes are up 12%.

Georgia: Hazelnut Results of August 2022

The export of hazelnuts in August fell three times to only 600 tons, although before that its volumes were confidently kept at record levels. At the same time, Georgia still managed to maintain a fairly wide geography of exports of this walnut category. Thus, Germany (26%), Armenia (20%) and Russia (12%) were in the top three in terms of imports, while the rest of the parties were distributed over a long list of countries from Spain to Uzbekistan.

Turkey: Hazelnut and TMO Statement From the AK Party

This season, the importance of the Turkish Grain Board's purchase of hazelnuts has increased, as the price of hazelnuts in the free market remained below expectations. TMO, which has bought nearly 150 thousand tons of hazelnuts so far, will end its hazelnut purchase on 31 December. Now the question is whether the purchase period of TMO will be extended. While the producers want TMO to continue buying hazelnuts, they say that even during the period when TMO buys hazelnuts, the free market buys hazelnuts at a low price of 44 liras by 8 liras, and that they are concerned that the hazelnut price in the free market will decrease further if TMO ends the purchase of hazelnuts. On the subject, AK Party Army Deputy Metin Gündoğdu made a statement. Gündoğdu saying that TMO started to buy hazelnuts as of August 22 in Ordu and said, “We have some information from the field. Within the framework of this information, we will meet with our Minister of Agriculture and our TMO General Manager about whether to extend the hazelnut purchase. We will also meet with our Ministry of Finance and resolve the demand regarding the continuation of hazelnut purchases.”

Turkey: There Are Hazelnuts in the Threshing in November

Although almost 3 months have passed since the hazelnut season in Ordu, there are still producers who cannot dry their hazelnuts. Those who see the hazelnut blends in Korgan are surprised. Hazelnut harvesting in the coastal region of Ordu starts in the first week of August. Afterwards, hazelnuts are collected in the middle and high sections. In Ordu, where hazelnut business ends at the beginning of October at the latest in normal times, there are still producers who dry hazelnuts in the threshing floor.

Turkey: Great Convenience to the Hazelnut Producer

With the regulation of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, the registration of the Farmer Registration System (ÇKS) can be made via e-Government, which provides great convenience to the hazelnut producers in Ordu. Farmers are completing their ÇKS registration which enables them to conclude in a short time without leaving their hazelnut orchards. While some producers renew their registrations via e-Government by using their mobile phones while working in their gardens, others are happy to benefit from the opportunities offered by technology without leaving their homes.

Turkey: How Many Tons of Hazelnuts Were Sold on the Market

According to the data compiled by Ordu Commodity Exchange, 200 thousand tons of hazelnuts went to the market in the first 2 months of the new hazelnut season, while 54 thousand tons of hazelnuts were sold by the producers throughout Ordu. In the first two months of the season, Ordu Commodity Exchange made a statement about the amount of hazelnuts traded in the stock markets in the hazelnut region. As of the end of October, 49 thousand tons of which was in September, 200,069 tons of hazelnuts landed on the market.

Turkey: There Is a Decline in Hazelnut Exports to Europe

In annual exports, 239,934 tons of hazelnuts were exported in the 10-month period covering January-October, and USD 1,325,828,762 foreign currency inflow was provided in return. In our hazelnut exports made on an annual basis, there is a 6% decrease in quantity and 23% in value compared to the first 10 months of the previous year. This is attributed to the energy crisis and recession, especially in European countries, as the manufacturing companies cut their production, decrease their capacities, and some companies stop their production completely due to cost increases. 

China: Stable Demand for Turkish Hazelnuts

Turkish hazelnuts arrived in China in September, mainly the Giresun variety. The demand is relatively the same compared with 2021. However, the epidemic control policy causes a delay in the transportation and extends the custom inspection time. Chinese Lunar New year festival is in January, and it is forecasted that the demand will peak in November and December to prepare for the festival.

Chestnut

Italy: Bad Season for Chestnuts

Stefano Cavaglià, president of Fedagro Piemonte, has no doubts about the product that was negatively affected by the hot autumn: “There has been a lot of talk about chestnuts, in fact it is a bad season from a commercial point of view . Little sale plus quality problems. The heat also affected consumption and production in Piedmont. We had chestnuts from September with 40 degrees and these temperatures lasted a long time, too long. We see Piedmont origin, now there is a chestnut from Campania and then we will pass to Portuguese origin ”.

Italy: The Chestnut of Roccamonfina Is Now Officially IGP

Today, 7 November 2022, with the publication in the European Official Journal L285 of the Implementing Regulation of the European Commission, the process for the recognition of the IGP of the Chestnut of Roccamonfina, pursuant to the EC Regulation n. 1151/12. Santangelo explained that the chestnut cultivation of the IGP area is estimated at approximately 2,500 hectares, almost all destined for fruit production, equal to about 20% of the total UAA (with peaks of up to 60% in some municipalities). Castagna di Roccamonfina IGP therefore represents the main cultivation in most of the territory. The average annual production, up to 2011 was about six thousand tons, with an average annual turnover of about 8-9 million, while in recent years, in full phytosanitary emergency, experts have estimated a production not exceeding two thousand tons per year . For two years there has been a certain recovery in production, in particular this year, which bodes well for a full recovery of the sector.

Macadamia

Vietnam: Dak Lak Officially Exports the First Batch of Macadamia Nuts to Japan

The first batch of macadamia nuts officially exported to Japan with a volume of more than 6 tons was grown in Krong Nang district, Dak Lak province. Products have undergone many stages of inspection by specialized agencies of the two countries on pest control, food safety and hygiene, packaging and traceability. Macadamia tree in Krong Nang district, initially planted by the General Department of Forestry in Phu Loc and Daliya communes in 2003, has an area of ​​about 4 hectares. Currently, macadamia has been recognized by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development as a multi-purpose tree, both an agricultural tree and a forestry tree. Particularly in Krong Nang, out of 2,300 hectares of planted macadamia, 1,000 hectares are in business, the output in 2022 is estimated at more than 1,700 tons. The quality of macadamia nuts in Krong Nang district is evaluated well, and has been certified by the National Office of Intellectual Property - Ministry of Science and Technology with the trademark "Krong Nang Macadamia."

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