W45: Wheat Update

In W45 in the wheat landscape, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has revised its harvest forecast for wheat for the 2023/24 season, projecting a total production of 785.1 million metric tons (mmt), up 4 mmt from the previous estimate. The total availability of wheat worldwide is estimated at 1.10 billion metric tons (mt), indicating a slight increase compared to the previous season. Despite a record harvest exceeding 800 mmt last season, the FAO suggests that the current season is poised to be similarly robust, with final stocks anticipated to grow with production and consumption patterns.

Meanwhile, India's wheat harvest for the 2023/24 season (Mar-23 to Apr-24) has been revised downward to 106 mmt. Despite the reduction, the projected wheat production for the upcoming season is still expected to be 2 mmt higher than the current season. Additionally, the export potential of Indian wheat in the next season is estimated at 1 mmt, reflecting a decrease from 5.37 mmt in the current season.

Argentina's wheat production estimate for the 2023/24 season has been revised downward from 14.3 mmt to 13.5 mmt, according to the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), due to adverse weather conditions. Argentina holds significance as a global wheat exporter, notably as a key supplier to Brazil. In recent weeks, the main agricultural regions in Argentina have received crucial rainfall, addressing concerns stemming from months of drought in the region.

Meanwhile, Argentina's wheat harvest has progressed, covering 9.3% of the total area, reflecting a 2.5% increase week-on-week (WoW). As of W45, 595.03 thousand metric tons (mt) of wheat have been harvested over 538.696 thousand hectares (ha). Crop conditions in Argentina are reported as 15% good or excellent , 40% normal, and 45% regular or poor. This indicates a slight improvement from the previous week when conditions were 13%, 40%, and 47%, respectively. Water deficit affected 43% of the wheat-growing area, slightly improving from 46% the previous week.

Australia achieved a new record for grain exports in the 2022/23 marketing year (MY), shipping 47.81 mmt. This marked a significant increase of 10.6% year-on-year (YoY) compared to the previous record of 43.22 mmt in the 2021/22 season. Specifically, in the year leading up to September 30, 2023, Australia exported 31.67 mmt of wheat and durum, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This figure includes 2.35 mmt of containerized wheat and durum and a record-breaking 29.32 mmt of bulk, surpassing the overall record set in 2021/22 at 27.6 mmt.

The weather has posed challenges for the harvest in Kazakhstan, with a notable negative impact on the quality of grain, particularly wheat. The government of Kazakhstan has expressed a lack of enthusiasm for summarizing this year's harvest. The harvest has concluded in Kazakhstan, with 11.4 mmt of wheat harvested, but approximately 40% of the grain is classless. This classification implies that the grain is not suitable for consumption or feed purposes, highlighting the quality issues faced during the harvest.

Lastly, Syria has finalized a contract to buy approximately 1.4 mmt of wheat from Russia, as stated by Syrian Agriculture Minister Hassan Qatana. The contract, made through the Grain Association of Syria, is expected to provide sufficient wheat for the country's production needs for the entire year. Qatana reported that the import process is progressing smoothly, with a significant quantity of wheat already arriving at Syrian ports.

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