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W46: Weekly Sunflower Update

Updated Nov 22, 2022
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what happened during W46 in the global sunflower landscape. In summary, the sunflower harvest in Ukraine until W46 amounts to 9.8MMT. In Kyiv, Ukraine, 416,000MT of sunflowers were threshed on an area of 198,300 ha, yielding 21MT/ha. The crisis between Russia and Ukraine caused the prices of Ukrainian sunflower oil for export to Bulgarian ports to increase by USD 30-50/MT. As for Russia, frost in Tatarstan helped farmers speed up the harvesting pace, while the Saratov region in Russia is expected to harvest more than 2MMT of sunflower in 2022. However, Russia's total estimated sunflower harvest has been reduced to 16.1 MMT. Meanwhile in India, sunflower oil purchases increased by 2.7% YoY in 2021/22 as a result of palm oil export restrictions. As for Argentina, sunflower sowing was completed by 86.6% in Argentina. From April 2021 to November 2022, the price of Turkish sunflower oil increased by 233%.


Until W46, Ukraine Harvested Nearly 10MMT of Sunflower

Farmers in Ukraine harvested approximately 16.6MMT of main oilseeds, including sunflower, soybean, and rapeseed, by November 18, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine. The total sunflower seed harvest in Ukraine until W46 amounts to 9.8MMT. Additionally, the total oilseed harvest has already reached 96% of the planned area of 4.5M ha. Currently, seed harvesting has already been completed in the Vinnitsa, Volyn, Kyiv, Kirovograd, Nikolaev, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky, and Chernivtsi regions.

Agrarian Farms in the Kyiv Region, Ukraine Are Completing the 2022 Harvest

Farms in Ukraine's Kyiv Region have finished harvesting for 2022. Wheat, barley, rye, oats, peas, buckwheat, millet, winter and spring rapeseed, sunflowers, and soybeans were all harvested to 100% of their planned areas in every part of the region. Until W46, 416,000MT of sunflowers were threshed on an area of 198,300 ha, yielding 21MT/ha. 

In 2022/23, the Export of Sunflower Seeds From Ukraine Will Remain Significantly Higher Than the Average Annual Pre-war Level

In 2022/23 MR, sunflower seed exports from Ukraine are anticipated to decline compared to the 2021/22 season, but will still be significantly higher than the average annual level. Sunflower seed shipments from Ukraine surged by 850% per year, and from March to August, 92.5% of the total volume was exported (?). As a result, the export of sunflower processing products like sunflower oil and meal significantly fell as a consequence of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which created logistical problems and made it challenging to export finished goods.

 Price of Ukrainian Oil Delivered to Bulgarian Ports Increased by USD 30-50/MT In W46

In W46, prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil for export to Bulgarian ports increased by USD 30-50/MT to USD 1200-1250/MT DAP. Due to the uncertainty surrounding Ukrainian shipments after November 19, the demand price for sunflower oil remained at a level of $1,000-1,050/t SRT due to the uncertainty surrounding exports. Numerous infrastructure facilities were damaged as a result of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which hampered the operation of oil extraction plants in Ukraine. As of November 15, 2022, Ukraine exported 1.2MMT of sunflower oil in 2022/23 MR from the forecasted 3.6MMT, while in 2021/22 MR, exports amounted to 4.465MMT. The USDA predicted in November that Turkey may import more sunflower seed from Ukraine in 2022/23 than it did in 2021/22, up 86.85% YoY to 1.25MMT.


Frost in Tatarstan, Russia helped farmers to improve the harvesting pace

In W46, In Tatarstan, harvesting work continues on sugar beet, corn and sunflower with the ongoing frost. Approximately, 57% of sunflower is harvested, which is 123,000ha out of 215,000ha, with an estimated yield of 1.93MT/ha. According to Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Food of the Republic of Tatarstan, frost has significantly improved the harvesting process in the region.

Saratov Region in Russia Will Harvest More Than 2MMT of Sunflower in 2022

According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Saratov Region, more than 2MMT of sunflower is forecast to be harvested in 2022. As of W46, farmers in the Saratov region have already harvested half of the anticipated volume, or 1MMT at an average of 1.49MMT/ha.

Sovecon Lowers Estimate of Sunflower Harvest in Russia to 16.1MMT

According to the SovEcon report, the sunflower harvest in Russia was reduced by 0.9MMT to 16.1MMT for the 2022/23 season. The reduction in the harvest estimate is mainly due to the significant delay in the Central and Volga Federal Districts, which is expected to only conclude in the winter season. The deterioration of the new crop and a slow harvest amid high prices for sunflower oil will lead to the stabilisation of sunflower prices in the near future. In W45, the average sunflower price in the European part of the Russian Federation amounted to USD 348.42/MT, not including VAT, which is 1.5 times lower than the peak level price recorded in March 2022.

Tula region in Russia may introduce a state of emergency due to unharvested crops

The Tula region's sown area exceeded 970,000ha in 2022 which is 35,000 more than 2021, according to Minister of Agriculture for the region. Unfortunately, the harvesting process was substantially slowed down in September-October 2022 due to unfavourable weather. About 30% of potatoes, vegetables, and sunflowers have yet to be harvested until W46 and there are already report of crop death. Thus in order to further assist agricultural producers, there is a potential introduction of an emergency situation in this field is currently being worked out.

Sunflower Harvest in Crimea Increased 14% YoY in 2022

The Republic of Crimea's Minister of Agriculture reports that 111,000MT of sunflowers were harvested from the fields in 2022, an increase of 14% YoY with more than 76,000ha have been threshed. The head of the Crimean Ministry of Agriculture also reminded that sunflower was sown on 76,200ha in 2022, an increase of 18% YoY.


Sunflower oil Purchase in India Increased 2.7% YoY in 2021/22 As a result of Palm Oil Export Restriction 

India is the largest importer of vegetable oils such as palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in the world. In order to stabilise domestic prices, Indonesia, the largest palm oil exporter in the world, implemented a number of export restrictions in the first half of 2022. According to SEA, the restrictions have caused palm oil to reach the same price as soybean and sunflower oil, which has led Indian refiners to buy less palm oil. As a result, India imported 1.94MMT of sunflower oil in 2021/22, up 2.7% YoY, as New Delhi increased its purchases of oil from Argentina, Turkey, and Romania despite the interruption of supplies from the Black Sea region caused by Russia-Ukraine conflict.


2022/23 Sunflower Sowing Completed by 86.6% In Argentina

In W46, the 2022/23 sunflower sowing progress has been completed by 86.6% of the 2M ha projected. In comparison to the 2021/22 season, there is a 2.5% YoY delay in the sowing process. The southeast of Buenos Aires and the southwest of Buenos Aires, south of La Pampa, had the greatest progress in sunflower sowing.


Turkish Sunflower Oil Price Increased by 233% From April 2021 to November 2022

The price of sunflower oil, which was USD 3.22/5 litres in April 2021, increased to USD 10.74/5 litres in November as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war, inflation, and the increase in the dollar exchange rate. If there is no government action and this situation continues, the price of sunflower oil might rise to 26.84/5 litres in 2023.

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