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Tridge Analysis

W52: Weekly Canola & Rapeseed Update

Updated Jan 5, 2023
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what happened during W52 in the global canola and rapeseed landscape. In summary, oilseed demand in Europe in W52 declined due to the Christmas holidays. In Poland, record-breaking volumes of rapeseed were harvested in 2022. Additionally, Poland imported approximately 600,000MT of rapeseed from outside the EU, mainly from Ukraine. The price of rapeseed on MATIF increased by 3.1% WoW, the highest increase in December. The Chinese business community is concerned about Russian rapeseed supply prospects, as fears mount that the ban on rapeseed could be extended after February 28, 2023. Lastly, since the middle of December, demand export prices for rapeseed have been trending downward in Ukraine.


Christmas Holidays Dampened Oilseed Demand in Europe

From the viewpoint of processing demand, the rapeseed market in Europe is declining. Since W51, rapeseed prices have not appreciably changed despite a rise in demand for ISCC-certified rapeseed. According to the most recent indications of purchasers in W52, prices were USD 541.06-551.67/MT DAP Germany (ex), USD 562.28-572.89/MT DAP Poland (ex) and USD 562.28-572.89/MT DAP Slovakia (ex).


Rapeseed Prices in 2022 Month by Month

Prices for agricultural goods decreased at the start of 2022 compared to 2021. In the purchases analysed, rapeseed cost between USD 743.69-804.90/MT. Rapeseed prices on Matif for contracts with delivery in February ranged up to USD 843.99/MT, which was an increase of 80.1% YoY from February 2021. In December 2022, rapeseed was worth approximately USD 589.47/MT. In addition, Poland, which harvested record-breaking volumes of rapeseed this year, imported an additional almost 600,000MT of rapeseed from outside the EU (mostly from Ukraine) starting on July 1.

Rapeseed Trade Balance in 2022

The rapeseed import balance for the months of January through September 2022 was 866,259MT. For the same time period in 2021, it was 453,158MT. Unsurprisingly, the largest volumes are transported from Ukraine of over 508,000MT, slightly lower in Australia with over 133,000MT and the Czech Republic of 87,300MT. For comparison, in 2021 Poland imported the highest volumes from the Czech Republic in 2021 (89,700MT), followed by Ukraine (80,600MT). Exports of rapeseed stood for 270,500MT for the comparable period of January to September 2022. A sizeable portion of this sum was going to Germany in the amount of 234,400MT and then the Czech Republic in the amount of over 18,000MT.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development estimates that closing stockpiles for the 2022/2023 season may total close to 200,000MT after accounting for trade flows. The record-breaking rapeseed crop in Poland in 2022 explains why stocks have increased.

Challenges in Rapeseed Breeding in Poland

In Poland, the 2022 growing season saw a record 1.05M acres of rapeseed planted. Over 436,000 ha. of rapeseed were being grown in Poland in 2002. The rising tendency persisted throughout the years with only slight fluctuations, and by 2010, the area had already doubled to little over 946,000 ha. This cultivation covered almost 900,000 ha during the course of the following ten years, and last season a record was broken. 

However, there are several challenges experienced by growers, such as the implementation of a restriction on the use of neonicotinoid treatments was a major blow and a difficulty for rapeseed production. The breeding response to the changes was increased tolerance and the introduction of resistance to viral diseases. The climate is another factor that has a big impact on how crops grow. The unpredictable nature of the weather during various growth stages of rapeseed is a factor to which breeding also had to respond.


Rapeseed Quotations on MATIF End 2022 With the Highest Price in a Month in Poland

Most oil futures have seen an uptick in price during the previous week on international stock exchanges. For W52, the price of rapeseed on MATIF increased by 3.1% WoW, the highest increase in December. Rapeseed prices for a contract for delivery in February increased 0.4% on Friday, December 30, reaching USD 620.16/MT, but 22.5% less YoY. On Friday, shares of Canadian canola plummeted by 1.5% to USD 635.36/MT, a decrease of 15.2% YoY, and prices also decreased by 1.0% WoW.

Quotes of Rapeseed Fell in MATIF Exchange on December 28

On December 28, March corn contracts in Paris on the MATIF exchange remained unchanged at USD 317.48/MT. Rapeseed quotes for January, meanwhile, decreased from USD 615.86/MT to USD 613.73/MT.

Quotes of Rapeseed Rose in MATIF Exchange on December 27

On December 27, rapeseed prices for January in Paris increased from USD 601.27/MT to USD 615.86/MT. At the MATIF market, March corn futures climbed from USD 314.03/MT to USD 317.48/MT.

Quotes of Rapeseed Rose in MATIF Exchange 

Rapeseed increased 1.2% WoW from USD 594.11/MT to USD 601.27/MT on the MATIF exchange in Paris from December 16 to December 23, while corn increased from USD 301.03/MT to USD 314.03/MT.


Tomsk Region of Russia Doubled Agricultural Exports

The Federal Customs Service reports that the Tomsk Region raised its exports of agricultural goods to USD 75.08M during 2022. Oil and fat products worth USD 33.79M have been shipped from the area since 2022 began, which is an increase of 3.5 times that of 2021. Rapeseed oil exports, in particular, jumped from USD 9.6M to USD 32.33M.

Karachay-Cherkessia Reduced Areas Under Winter Crops by 10% In 2022

For the harvest of 2023, the farmers in Karachay-Cherkessia have completed sowing about 18,000 hectares of winter crops. Farmers have primarily sown winter wheat, barley, and rapeseed, according to the source. 2022's winter crop area is almost 10% smaller than it was last year due to unfavourable weather conditions that prevented the farmers from carrying out the sowing campaign in the planned volume.

China Is Concerned About a Possible Ban on the Export of Rapeseed From Russia in 2023

The Chinese business community is concerned about Russian rapeseed supply prospects, fearing that the export ban on this crop of land will be extended after February 28, 2023. Chinese businesses are requesting with their Russian counterparts to do whatever they can to keep open the prospect of selling rapeseed to China via the international border crossing at Zabaikalsk-Manchuria. This is vital to uphold positive relationships between the Chinese and Russian sides and advance China's food security. Rapeseed exports were prohibited by the Russian government in September until February 28, 2023, with the exception of supplies made through the Zabaikalsk checkpoint, according to the Cabinet's press service. The administration has decided to prolong some protective measures for the domestic


Export Prices for Ukrainian Rape Decreased to USD 381.93-434.97/MT FCA

Since the middle of December, demand export prices for rapeseed have been trending downward in Ukraine (FCA basis). Farmers eagerly sold this crop at the start of the season in order to meet the high demand of European nations due to the scarcity of oilseeds, which resulted in a major reduction in the amount of rapeseed supply. As a result, rapeseed demand prices dropped by an average of USD 14.80/MT, and as of December 30, it mostly fluctuated between USD 381.93-434.97/MT FCA.

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