Global chicken meat production in 2023 was virtually unchanged from the October 2022 forecast of 102.9M MT as upward revisions for the UK, Thailand, and Mexico offset the declines in Brazil. UK manufacturing continues to expand due to high demand despite labor issues, higher input costs, and the recent outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Lower feed and genetics production costs will boost Thai production. Brazil was revised lower due to weaker foreign demand, especially from China. Global chicken exports in 2023 were revised to 1% lower than the October 2022 forecast of 14.0M MT. Weaker demand from China, the EU, South Africa, and the UK will mainly affect Brazil, the world's top exporter.
In the spring of 2022, avian influenza struck millions of chickens on farms in the northern hemisphere. Although the pandemic was severe, it remained within the limits of possibility, as it was linked to the usual season of migration of wild birds. What happened next was frightening and surprising, as the infection continued without being affected by the summer heat or the winter cold, as it penetrated other areas that were usually known as safe havens from the outbreak. According to Reuters, the infection has penetrated North and South America, Europe, and parts of Asia and Africa. In light of these developments, the world fears that bird flu will reach Brazil, which is the country that exports the most chicken in the world. Last year, Brazil achieved a record of 4.8M MT of chicken exports (USD 9.7B), and at that time it was one of the beneficiaries of the outbreak of bird flu in the northern hemisphere.
Egg prices have soared due to the worst-ever global bird flu outbreak that’s ravaged poultry and hen flocks in Europe and US. Now, the disease is showing early signs of spreading in South America, putting global chicken supplies in bigger danger. Cases have been popping up in countries like Ecuador, Colombia, and Bolivia. Just this week in Argentina, the virus was detected in a wild bird. And more alarmingly, on Feb 15 Uruguay reported its first case of avian influenza. Just over 100M poultry have died or were culled due to avian influenza between the start of October and Feb 3, according to the World Organization for Animal Health. That’s more than triple the number in the same period in the previous season, which ended with record losses from the disease.
After accepting the Animal Equality petition filed with the European Parliament, the EU Commission acknowledged that the rearing of fast-growing broiler chickens is problematic. The Commission itself has communicated that it is evaluating the possibilities for action to address the negative consequences that the breeding of these animals entails in the context of the revision of the legislation on the welfare of farmed animals, expected by 2023. The broiler breed is commonly used in intensive farming because, as also told to Salvagente in February in the investigation into the Fileni case, it mainly develops the animal's chest, the part most requested by consumers, to the detriment of the joints.
The last update of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), on January 11, 2023, reports cases of avian influenza in the American continent in Canada, the United States, Mexico (North America), Honduras, Panama (Central America), Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela (South America). Since then, other countries have also recorded outbreaks, such as Cuba and Guatemala, in Central America, and in (South America), Bolivia, Uruguay, and Argentina. Altogether, there are 16 countries in the Americas with records of the highly pathogenic disease. Of these, eight are in South America, and six border Brazil, from north to south of the country.
The government will review the need to continue providing subsidies to chicken breeders and egg producers in June, said Agriculture and Food Security Minister Datuk Seri Mohamad Sabu. He said that so far, a total of USD 0.41B (RM1.8B) in subsidy had been allocated for the breeders and producers involved, and the amount is expected to exceed USD 0.45B (RM 2B) by June.
According to information from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) of the Federal Government, released on Feb 13, exports of poultry meat and its edible offal, fresh, refrigerated, or frozen in the eight working days of February showed gains in the collection. The revenue obtained from chicken meat exports up to this point in the month, USD 260.30B, represents 44.41% of the amount obtained in February 2022, which was USD 586.02B. In the case of the volume shipped, they were 41.34% (140.338M MT) higher compared to the total registered in February last year, amounting to 339.41M MT. The daily average billing at the beginning of the month was USD 32.54B MT, an amount 5.5% higher than that recorded in February 2022. Compared to the previous week, there was a decrease of 7.6%.
Brazil is among the largest poultry breeders on the planet. The Brazilian numbers compared to the international ones are, by far, greater in all senses. An example of this, exports of chicken meat (considering fresh and processed products) totaled 420.9K MT in January, up 20.6% compared to the same period of the previous year and a record for the month. The Associação Brasileira de Proteína Animal (ABPA), said this was due to strong external demand caused by the global supply restriction due to the avian flu. According to ABPA, each Brazilian consumes an average of 45 kg of meat per year. This number is three times greater than what Brazilians consumed in 1990, 13.5kg on average. According to experts, consumption should continue to grow in the coming months due to the continuation of falling prices.
Brazil: Remaining Free of Avian Flu (Feb 15)
Brazil, the world's largest exporter of chicken meat, continues without any cases of bird flu and has expanded preventive measures at the border after confirmations of the disease in neighboring countries like Argentina and Uruguay, said Carlos Favaro, the Minister of Agriculture. Fávaro pointed out that the federal government is intensifying a campaign against bird flu and added that the country has a good prevention system.
The Associação Brasileira de Proteína Animal (ABPA) applauds the publication of Ordinances 235 and 236 of SECEX/MDIC, which govern the new way of issuing certificates of origin for existing poultry meat quotas for the European Union and the United Kingdom as of March 01, 2023. Currently, the European Union and the United Kingdom maintain a quota system with Brazil in exports of chicken and turkey meat and the certificate of origin is an important instrument for the control and correct allocation of quota volumes in line with the licenses of import. With the publication, certificates of origin will be issued digitally and will bring significant efficiency gains for Brazilian exporters, reducing time and cost in this operation.
In December 2022, Brazilian production of broiler chicks reached the highest volume in more than two years, just below the historic mark of 629M, recorded in October 2020. According to APINCO, production for the month totaled 621.7M head, a volume that represented an increase of 1.55% over the same month of 2021, but which, according to the daily average, corresponded to a decrease of almost half a percent compared to the previous month, November 2022. With this result, the total produced in the year was close to 6.87M head, a result that meant a reduction of almost 1% over production in 2021, the year in which 6.93M broiler chicks were registered, the highest annual volume in the history of the sector.
SECEX data relating to the four main items of chicken meat exported by Brazil point out that the historical record for the month reached last January was mainly determined by the natura product, cuts, and whole chicken, whose volumes registered an annual increase of, respectively, 22.99% and 19.18%. Salted chicken meat had a more moderate increase in volume by 4.21%, while industrialized products fell by 2.69%. Contradictorily, however, they reached the highest value of all time in the month, surpassing the August 2022 record. However, the product with the best price appreciation in January was the whole chicken: almost 30% more than a year ago and still above USD 2K/MT. But it remains far from USD 2.12K/MT, a record registered almost 10 years ago, in April 2013.
Although the production of broiler chicks registered an increase of almost 3% from November to December 2022, in terms of daily production it decreased by around 0.5%, as December has an extra day. And this was reflected in the apparent supply of birds ready for slaughter 42 days after the first placements. But the drop was minimal. Thus, between mid-December and the first days of January, the daily apparent supply was around 19.3M head, from then until the first two weeks of February it was just over 19.2M head /day, down 0.41%. In both cases, it was an excessive volume for the moment (beginning of the year), when consumption naturally ebbs due, above all, to the holidays of part of the population and the interruption of the school year. This, of course, was reflected in the prices achieved for slaughtered chicken.
The purchase price of broiler chickens decreased by USD 0.022/kg (PLN 0.1) on January 23-29, compared to the previous week, and amounted to USD 1.26/kg (PLN 5.62). The price of this livestock was 2% lower than a month ago, but 25% higher than a year earlier. Suppliers received USD 2.04/kg (PLN 9.08). Selling prices of poultry meat in the fourth week of January 2023, meat processing plants sold carcasses of gutted chickens at USD 1.85/kg (PLN 8.26), 8% more expensive than the week before and 0.2% more than a month ago.
The Turkish Statistical Institute announced the poultry production data for December 2022. Last year, 1.35B chickens were slaughtered in Turkey. The number of slaughtered chickens increased by 8.4% compared to 2021. Last year, 2.42M MT of chicken meat and 53.65K MT of turkey meat were produced. Chicken meat production increased by 7.7% compared to the previous year, and turkey meat production increased by 4.6%.
New tests of the Russian Smena 9 crossbreed have been launched by 5 poultry farms, hoping to confirm its presumably high production potential, Sergey Lakhtyukhov, general director of the Russian national union of poultry producers, disclosed, speaking during the AGROS-2023 industry conference in Moscow. New trials have been launched by leading Russian poultry producers, Lakhtyukhov said, expressing confidence that they could show “the real figures and performance of this crossbreed”. The Russian poultry industry generally expects Smena 9 to be superior on 70 production indicators compared with the most popular imported crossbreeds, and almost twice as cheap.
Rolling national power cuts, or ‘load shedding’, continue to have a devastating effect on poultry farmers and abattoirs throughout South Africa. Poultry World spoke to Izaak Breitenbach, CEO of the South African Poultry Association, to find out how this unique energy crisis has impacted the sector, which is forced to deal with hiked costs and power disruptions that last anywhere between 2 and 10 hours a day, every day. Load Shedding has become a daily reality across the country and is a result of aging coal-fired power stations, corrupt coal procurement deals, and criminal sabotage, all of which have impacted the national power utility, Eskom, to supply adequate electricity to South African businesses and households. The result is power cuts across the country which, according to a popular load-shedding app, EskomSePush, experienced 2,881 hours of load shedding in 2022.
Egypt: Poultry Prices (Feb 19)
Poultry prices in the local market for the consumer, the wholesale market, and farms on February 19, 2023, were as follows. Wholesale poultry prices recorded about USD 2.35 (72 pounds) for farmland delivery in the day’s dealings, while the price for the consumer in the markets ranged between USD 2.78- 2.94 (85-90 pounds), and it varied. This price was according to each region. In a related context, the prices of a carton of white eggs recorded at USD 3.73 (114 pounds) in farms, red eggs USD 3.76 (115 pounds), and municipal eggs USD 3.99 (122 pounds)/ carton in the day’s dealings, and those prices were added to transportation costs and merchants' gains.
Many citizens are searching for the prices of imported chickens in the local market, after what was raised during the past hours by Abdulaziz Al-Sayed, head of the Poultry Wealth Division at the Chamber of Commerce in Cairo, that the Ministry of Supply is moving to import chickens. Al-Sayed had said in televised statements that the prices of imported chickens are about USD 0.82 (EGP 25) lower than local ones, even though they are imported from abroad. Al-Sayed added that the price of imported chickens, weighing 1.5 kg, is USD 3.11 (95 pounds), compared to USD 3.92 (120 pounds) for local chickens.
The skyrocketing price of broiler chicken and eggs, the cheapest and biggest sources of protein in the country, is forcing low- and lower-middle-income people to curb their protein intakes. In different markets in the capital, broiler chickens are selling at USD 2.12- 2.16/kg (Tk225-Tk230), while the price of broiler eggs has jumped up to USD 1.32- 1.36/dozen (Tk140-Tk145) dozen. According to the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB), the price of broiler chicken and eggs has increased by 39% and 30% respectively compared to the same time of the previous year. Traders say the market situation hints that the price could rise even further during Ramadan. Meanwhile, broiler producers have attributed the recent price surge to a hike in feed prices, which was caused by an increase in the cost of raw materials triggered by the dollar crisis fueled by the Ukraine war.
The price of turkeys on January 23-29 was 1% less than in the previous week and 2% less than at the end of December 2022. Compared to last year's prices, turkeys were 40% more expensive. Turkey carcasses, compared to the previous week, decreased by 1.5% to USD 3.40/kg (PLN 15.16) and at the same time was lower by 8% than a month ago. Compared to the prices obtained a year ago, chicken carcasses were more expensive by 18%, and turkeys by 31%.
The price of broiler ducks, similarly to the week and month before Jan 23-29, amounted to USD 1.72/kg (PLN 7.68). At the same time, the price of this livestock was 27% higher than a year ago.
Argentina detected a second case of bird flu in two wild ducks in the province of Córdoba, within the framework of surveillance actions and the health emergency declared in W7 after the detection of the first case in northern Argentina. The National Service of Health and Food Quality (Senasa) of Argentina confirmed the second case of avian influenza (AI) H5 in two wild ducks found dead, this time in the province of Córdoba. The detection of the second case, confirmed late Friday afternoon, came from samples taken from the two wild ducks killed in the Las Mojarras lagoon in the Cordoba department of General San Martín. The first case of this virus in the country came from a wild bird found in the Laguna de Pozuelos, in the northernmost region of the northern province of Jujuy.
A total of 1,638 applications by egg producers worth USD 124.80M (RM 553.19M) has been approved from the start of the subsidy program on Feb 5 till Feb 13, 2023, to help producers overcome the increase in production costs, said the Minister of Agriculture and Food Security Datuk Seri Mohamad Sabu. The Kota Raja MP told Dewan Rakyat that this was one of the short-term measures taken by the government to deal with the shortage of grade A, B, and C chicken eggs in the market.
An outbreak of avian flu made the egg disappear from supermarket shelves around the world. To Sputnik Brazil, specialists say that the scenario is favorable to exports from Brazil, currently free of cases of the disease. A cheap alternative found by many Brazilians to replace meat as protein in meals, chicken eggs has become a luxury item disputed in several countries. The reason is the global shortage in production, which made the product disappear from supermarket shelves. The crisis affects the United States, Mexico, New Zealand, and some European countries, such as the United Kingdom. The shortage and price increase of eggs are due to an outbreak of avian flu. However, other factors contribute to the scenario. In Europe, one of the factors is the increase in the cost of egg production, triggered by the increase in the price of electricity on the continent, generated by the measures adopted by European governments during the conflict in Ukraine.
The Turkish Statistical Institute announced the poultry production data for December 2022. Accordingly, 19.81B chicken eggs were produced last year. Production increased by 2.6% compared to the previous year. Chicken egg production increased by 4.3% on an annual basis in December last year to 1.75B units.
Late last year date Livestock farmers gradually came out to send out signals for help from the government continuously. Chasing from the central region's egg farmer Payao Arikul, stating that the production cost of chicken eggs was 30% higher than the normal range from the price of grains, feed raw materials, soared very high and stood tall especially maize and soybean meal.
Turkey's production in Russia in 2022 increased by 3.6% compared to 2021 and amounted to 414.6K MT. Over five years, the production of this product increased by 80% from 231K MT in 2017 to 414.6K MT in 2022. According to this data, the sub-sector shows positive dynamics in all segments, in large and medium-sized businesses, peasant farms, and personal subsidiary plots. The leaders among the regions in this direction are the Republic of Bashkortostan, Penza, Rostov, and Tambov regions. As explained by the Ministry of Agriculture, the market is actively developing due to the scaling of poultry farms and increasing the production of hatching eggs.
In 2023, the production of turkey products in Russia compared to last year may increase by 1.3% to 420K MT, and by 2030 it will reach 650K MT, according to the materials of the Ministry of Agriculture and the National Association of Turkey Producers (NAPI). The press service of the NAPI told Agro-investor that the association's forecast for the current year's output is 440-460K MT. Among the main growth factors is the high supply of the market with its raw materials for the manufacture of animal feed: wheat, corn, soybeans, vegetable oil, and other components, the Ministry of Agriculture said in a statement. According to the preliminary assessment of the association, in 2022, the production of turkey products increased by 3.6% compared to 2021 and amounted to 414.6K MT, noted the agricultural department.
On the afternoon of February 13, discussing with Dan Viet about the information that the price of chicken eggs has fallen deeply, even though many rescue points have appeared, Mr. Nguyen Thanh Son, Chairman of the Vietnam Poultry Breeding Association affirmed that: "It is true that from the beginning of 2023, the price of eggs has decreased a bit, but not as cheap as the information appearing on social networking sites in recent days." According to Mr. Nguyen Thanh Son, in 2023, eggs will be one of the commodities with relatively good prices, ensuring good profits for farmers. Entering the beginning of 2023, the egg price had decreased compared to the end of 2022 but still ensured that farmers sold at a profit.
Due to the continuous outbreak of bird flu in many places, a large number of laying hens have been culled, and the price of eggs in Japan has continued to rise for several months. Industry data shows that as of February 16, the wholesale price of eggs in Japan has reached its highest level since 1993. The highest since relevant records were kept, almost doubled compared to the same period last year. According to the supermarket, this is about USD 0.37 (50 yen) higher than in December 2022 and does not include the consumption tax of 10% of the original price.
Negotiations between poultry farms and the Taipei Producer Association led to an agreement to raise egg prices by USD 0.07/kg (NT$2) beginning Feb. 13. Unfortunately, many in the industry believe the price increase is too little too late, and cannot alleviate supply-side pressure brought about by the global outbreak of avian flu. Domestically, egg shortages are becoming more common as local egg farms continue to come under pressure from fewer laying hens and higher raw material prices.