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W9: Weekly Dairy Update

Updated Mar 7, 2023
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what happened during W9 in the global dairy landscape. In summary, the Tridge Netherlands wholesale cow milk price benchmark ended February at USD 728.69/kg, a relatively flat WoW. In Denmark, cows with a lifetime production of more than 100MT of milk have increased steadily in recent years from 350 cows in 2018 to almost 1,000 cows in 2022. In the US, the March FMMO advanced Class I base price fell below USD 19/cwt for the first time since November 2021. Ukrainian milk production in January 2023 amounted to 455.7K MT, down 14.37% and 11.67% compared to the same period last year and December 2022 respectively. In Costa Rica, high input costs, as well as climate changes, have caused a decline in milk production and its derivatives, as well as an increase in their prices. Lastly, in Brazil, the value of a liter of milk in Mato Grossi Do Sul grew 5.15% in January 2023 in relation to December 2022.


Data Analysis: Netherlands Sufficient Cow Milk Powder Supplies Help to Keep Prices Down at USD 728.69/KG (Mar 3)

Currently, cow milk powder supplies in Europe are sufficient to fulfill most buyer needs. So although in International markets buying activity has picked up, the wholesale price in the Netherlands has moved lower. The Tridge Netherlands (National) / wholesale cow milk price benchmark ended February at USD 728.69/kg (€683.24), a relatively flat WoW. European milk production is also generally up at the moment but a spell of dry conditions in France and parts of Italy is giving an early indication of prolonged high temperatures similar to last year. In the near term, prices for butter and cream will add to the demand for dried milk powder to drive the latter.


Strong Increase in Danish Cows With High Lifetime Production (Feb 28)

In Denmark, in 2022 there were almost 1K dairy cows that passed the production limit of 100K kg of milk. This is reported by the organization Dansk Holstein. The number of Danish cows that achieve a lifetime production of more than 100MT of milk has increased sharply in recent years. In 2018 this was approximately 350 cows, in 2019 around 500, in 2020 about 720 and in 2021 880 cows exceeded the production limit of 100K kg of milk.

United States

March 2023 Class I Base Milk Price Dips Below USD 19 (Feb 27)

March 2023’s Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) advanced Class I base price moved lower, falling below USD 19 per hundredweight (cwt) for the first time since November 2021. The “average-of plus 74 cents” formula provided a small producer benefit over the previous “higher-of” formula. At USD 18.99 per cwt, the March 2023 Class I base is down USD 1.79 from February and USD 3.89 less than March 2022. 

The Future Hinges on Marketing Changes (Mar 1)

The continuing decline in fluid milk sales creates challenges for producers and processors alike. That’s amplified by higher costs and tight labor supplies, leading to fewer markets and lower production. Milk produced and marketed in the 11 states in the southeastern US is pooled on the Appalachian, Southeast, and Florida Federal Milk Marketing Orders (FMMOs). Like sisters in a large family, all 11 states share similar traits but not exactly the same characteristics. Progressive Dairy’s annual “State of Dairy” reports dividing the area into two regions: Southeast and Appalachian. 

Future Ready With Uncertainty (Mar 1)

Strong milk prices in 2022 helped fortify strained equity and liquidity positions and prepare for expectations of a downturn in milk prices and tighter margins in 2023. A numerical snapshot of Wisconsin shows the state averaged about 1.27M dairy cows in 2022, producing almost 31.9B pounds of milk. Both changed little from the year before. The number of herds commercially licensed to market milk did decline, reflecting consolidation. As of January 2023, there were 6.12K herds in the Badger State, down 417 from the year before. And while the USDA’s January Cattle report indicated Wisconsin producers were again starting a new year with about 1.27M cows, the number of dairy replacement heifers (greater than 500 pounds) was estimated at 630K head, down 30K head from a year earlier. 

2023 Brings Concerns and Opportunities in the Commonwealth (Mar 1)

The Center for Dairy Excellence leaders provides an overview of the state of dairy in Pennsylvania as 2023 gets underway. The staff of Pennsylvania’s Center for Dairy Excellence (CDE) is regular partners with Progressive Dairy in providing risk management, business management, and other information vital for dairy producers. Expanding on Progressive Dairy’s annual “State of Dairy” outlook for the northeast US, Zach Myers, risk education manager, and Jayne Sebright, executive director, provide insights on current conditions and future challenges and opportunities as 2023 gets underway. Moods are mixed Entering the new year, the moods of Pennsylvania dairy producers are a mix of uncertainty and frustration. 


Cattle Management Rules in Spain Need Some Improvements (Mar 1)

For a few weeks, Spain has had legislation that fully regulates the beef and dairy sector. Two months ago now, the BOE published RD 1053/2022, which establishes basic regulations for the management of bovine farms, some of whose provisions have already entered into force, and others will do so based on various transitory periods. The Union of Small Farmers and Ranchers has actively participated in the process of defining this important decree, whose work has lasted several years.


Farms in the Western and Central Regions of Ukraine Increased the Production of Milk and Beef (Feb 27)

Agricultural enterprises in the western and central regions increased production of milk and beef, despite the nationwide recession. The increase in production volumes in these regions is due to the fact that they were relatively less affected by the war and entrepreneurs from the frontline area moved their livestock there. According to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service, in January 2023, milk production in Ukraine amounted to 455.7K MT, which is 14.37% less than in January last year. Compared to December 2022, the volume of milking in January decreased by 11.67%. In terms of sectors, milk production decreased the most in households than in agricultural enterprises. Farms milked 228.5K MT of milk, which is 21.62% less than in January 2022. Enterprises produced 227.2K MT of milk, which is 7.09% less than a year ago.


Dairy Farmers Fall Into Debt and Face an Uncertain Future (Feb 27)

In the Uruguayan dairy farms, the situation is getting more and more complicated. With rations and bales that rise in price, heifers and cows that began to give birth in confinement, fewer milk remittances, and greater indebtedness because the cows have to eat to produce milk, producers no longer know what to do and jeopardize their pockets. In the traditional dairy basin, made up of Canelones, Florida, and San José, the rains were scarce, the oats that would make up quick reserves for the fall can no longer be planted and now they have to think about planting ryegrass. The problem is that there is a lack of moisture in the soil for the planting to thrive. 


Milk Production Increased by 22.7% In the Kursk Region (Feb 27)

The gross milk yield in agricultural organizations of the region reached 320.7K MT, which is 34.8% more than in 2021. Milk shipments amounted to 315.7K MT. As noted in the Kursk branch of the Center for Agroanalytics, the growth in milk production was ensured through the implementation of new investment projects and the expansion of existing enterprises. Dairy complexes launched in the Kursk region by the Agropromkomplektatsiya Group of Companies in the summer of 2021 to reach full capacity on schedule, which contributed to the growth of milk production in the region. According to the report of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Kursk Region, at the end of 2022, the group of companies took first place in the production of raw milk in the Kursk region.

Costa Rica

Milk Producers Warn Low Production Due to High Input Costs (Feb 27)

High input costs, as well as climate changes, have taken their toll on milk producers, causing a decline in the product and its derivatives, as well as an increase in their prices. The different Costa Rican dairy companies try to supply the product lines most required by consumers, such as fluid and powdered milk, however, some less sought-after categories could be temporarily reduced. According to data from the National Chamber of Milk Producers, from 2019 to January 2023, fertilizers increased their price by 220%, and imported corn by 73.7%. This means that each quintal of concentrate for cows in production increased from ¢11,194 to ¢16,690 in a period of 4 years. Producers also indicate that they have had to deal with the boy and girl phenomenon, the impact of the container crisis, and the effects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.


The Value of a Liter of Milk in Mato Grosso Do Sul Grows 5.15% In January 2023 (Feb 27)

The milk index, calculated by SEMADESC (State Secretariat for the Environment, Development, Science, Technology and Innovation), grew by 5.15% in January 2023 from USD 0.41 (BRL 2.09) in December 2022 to USD 0.43 (BRL 2.20) in January. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the increase is approximately 20%. “The main reason for the appreciation in the price of milk is the restricted supply. There was no increase in production and this limited uptake”, explains the Famasul System technical consultant, Eliamar Oliveira. In the first month of 2023, the volume captured was 15.1M liters, down 0.61% compared to the 15.2M liters in January 2022. 

Embrapa Study Proves That Dairy Farming in Brazil Generates Low Carbon Emissions (Feb 28)

A study conducted by Embrapa Pecuária Sudeste (SP) points out that 52 trees per cow are needed in intensive production systems to reach zero-carbon milk. Tree planting is a strategy to offset the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and can be used by ranchers to develop more sustainable livestock farming aimed at decarbonization. In extensive systems (low technological level), this amount is 33 eucalyptus trees. The work, published in the international publication Frontiers in Veterinary Science, evaluated the effect of Holstein cows (HPB – Black and White) and Jersolandas at different levels of intensification, continuous grazing with low stocking rate and irrigated rotation with high stocking rate, and the interaction between these two factors in GHG mitigation. In the experiment, the carbon balance between GHG emissions (including methane-enteric CH4) and GHG removals were carried out through soil carbon sequestration.


Overview of Dairy Sector (Feb 28)

In Thailand, the main sources of raw milk production are concentrated in the central, northeastern, and northern regions. Like any other industry, the dairy sector in Thailand also faces some challenges. However, with collaboration within the industry, there are great strides being made to develop it further. There were 24.23K dairy farmers operating dairy farms, and the number of dairy cattle in Thailand was 811.76K head as per May 2020 data. In terms of the location of most dairy farms, the most extensive dairy regions are Nakhon Ratchasima, Saraburi, Lopburi, Chiang Mai, Ratchaburi and Prachuap Khiri Khan all situated in the northern and central parts of the country. In 2018, 1.29M MT of raw milk was produced in the country. According to Statista, in 2022, it was predicted that the production volume of milk and derivatives would be around 1.42M MT of milk equivalent.


Review of Cow’s Milk Adulteration and the Impact of Adulterants on Milk Quality and Safety (Mar 1)

A study by scientists at Jimma University College of Agriculture and veterinary medicine (Ethiopia) provides an overview of cow's milk adulteration and the impact of adulterants on milk quality and safety. The study was published in January 2023. Adulteration of cow's milk is the act of deliberately lowering the quality of milk offered for sale by admixing or substituting substances, or removing a valuable ingredient. Milk contains a variety of nutrients, which makes its nutritional value high. Scientific evidence confirms that the consumption of cow's milk and dairy products as part of a balanced diet is a complete food. However, it happens that various adulterants are added to milk to increase its quantity and achieve financial benefits.

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