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W9: Weekly Soybean Update

Updated Mar 8, 2023
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what happened during W9 in the global soybean landscape. In summary, the Brazilian share in global soybean exports is expected to increase from 53% to 60.6% while the US portion to decrease from 33% to 28% over the next 10 years between the 2022/23 and 2032/33 seasons. Brazilian soybean harvest for the 2022/23 season reached 43% in W9 despite rains still affecting the work in the fields. US soybean production in 2023 is projected at 122.5MT, 5% above a year earlier. Argentina’s 2022/23 soybean crop is estimated at 33.5M MT, down from 38M MT previously forecast, as drought, a recent heat wave, and early frosts have taken their toll. Zimbabwe is expecting a large soybean harvest following a 9% increase in the area under soya bean from 51.49K ha in the previous season to 55.94K ha this season. Lastly, the Egyptian government released 19K MT of soybeans valued at USD 1.4M in W8.


Annual US Agriculture Forum Predicts Increase in Brazilian Exports (Feb 27)

Projections for exports of Brazilian agro products for the next 10 years remain favorable. Corn, soy, and meat (beef, pork, and chicken) are highlights of the report on agricultural perspectives for 2032 presented at the annual Agricultural Outlook Forum 2023, in W8, in Washington DC, in the United States. The country's share in world soybean exports should increase from 53% to 60.6%, while the United States will have a decrease in its share from 33% to 28%, between 2022/23 and 2032/33. 

IMEA Maintains a Projection for 22/23 Soybeans From Mato Grosso, Brazil at 42.8M MT, With an Upward Bias (Feb 27)

Soybean production in Mato Grosso should reach a record 42.8M MT in the 2022/23 harvest, the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) said on Feb 27, maintaining the projection released at the beginning of the month. The institute's expectation may still increase, depending on the results obtained by the end of the harvest, which reached 76.27% last Friday, commented the superintendent of IMEA, Cleiton Gauer.

Brazilian Soybeans to Offset Argentina’s Frazzled Crop (Feb 27)

Brazil’s bumper soybean crop will offset sharp soybean crop declines in Argentina, lifting the countries’ combined production just above last year’s level, according to Gro’s in-season soybean yield forecast models for both countries. This suggests that South America’s biggest soybean crops will have a negligible impact on the global soybean stocks-to-use ratio, a measure of available supply. In 2022, Gro’s Brazil Soybean Yield Forecast Model’s production estimate was 98% accurate six months before Brazil’s government released its final figure, and the Argentine soybean model’s forecast was within 97% of Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture’s final number more than five months before publication. This year soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina face diverging prospects. 

Weather Hinders Soybean Harvest in Brazil (Feb 27)

The soybean harvest in Brazil is being affected by the high volume of rain in the main producing regions. Due to the frequent rains, some soybean areas have not yet been harvested. This situation is starting to worry soybean producers about the possibility of damaged and burned grains, which can have an impact on the production of derivatives, such as oil. According to Conab, Brazil harvested only 23% of the 152.88M MT forecast for the 2022/23 season until the 18th, well below the 33% harvested in the same period last year.

Why Are Soybeans Under Downward Pressure? (Feb 27)

In the international soybean market, according to TF Agroeconomia, slight falls were the balance of the week for soybean prices in Chicago, where the March and May positions fell by 0.99% and 0.73%, from USD 566.77/MT to USD 561.17/MT and from USD 563.46/MT to USD 559.33/MT. That's because the market has come under downward pressure. With a record harvest currently underway in Brazil, Conab on Feb 27 raised the advance of the Brazilian soybean crop by 15.4% of the suitable area, compared to 8.9% in the previous report and 25% in the same period of 2022. In addition, inflation and oil also play a role.

Weather Hinders Soybean Harvest in Brazil and Harms Crops in Argentina (Feb 27)

The soybean harvest in Brazil continues at a slow pace, due to the high volume of rain in important producing regions. Collaborators consulted by Cepea indicate that some soybean areas have already been desiccated for days and still could not be harvested, given the frequent rains. This scenario is starting to worry the national soybean producer about the possibility of damaged and burned soybeans, which can even impact the production of derivatives, especially oil. Brazil harvested only 23% of the 152.88M MT forecast for the 2022/23 season until the 18th, below the 33% harvested in the same period last year, according to Conab (National Supply Company). In Argentina, low soil moisture and high temperatures continue to harm crops.

Soy Harvest Reaches 17% Of the Area in Paraná, Delay Leaves Corn 2nd Crop Planting at Risk (Feb 28)

The 2022/23 soybean harvest reached 17% of the areas in Paraná, an increase of 10% points in a week, but with a delay compared to previous years that leave the planting of corn second crop in a period of greater climate risk in several regions, said the Department of Rural Economy (Deral). In the same period of the previous cycle, the state agency's survey was not carried out due to the Carnival holiday, however, in 2021 the oilseed harvest was at 23% at this time of year. In 2020, according to Deral, the work was even more advanced, with 42% of the areas harvested, and in 2019 this percentage already exceeded 50%. 

Corn Surpasses Soy and Is the Most Exported Product of Agro in Goiás in January (Feb 28)

Corn surpassed soy and was the main product in the Goiás export basket in January 2023, according to data released by the Agrostat of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa). Grain exports in the period totaled 514.6K MT, amounting to USD145.8M. The commodity surpassed the numbers of the soy complex, which has always been in first place in the ranking of exports from Goiás. In January, the soy complex registered 235.7K MT and USD 139.6M. Comparing the months of January 2022 and 2023, while corn registered a growth of 170.3% in terms of export volume and 219% in relation to value, soybeans presented a decrease of 58.2% in the case of exported quantity and 52.7% in relation to the exported value. 

Anec Lowers the Projection for Soybean Exports From Brazil in February to 7.73M MT (Feb 28)

Soy exports from Brazil in February were estimated at 7.73M MT, versus an estimate of up to 8.3M MT pointed out in the previous week, in the wake of a slower harvest of the 2022/23 crop and rains that affect shipments, showed data from the National Association of Cereal Exporters (Anec). The new forecast, however, was slightly above the minimum shipment projected by the entity last week, of 7.6M MT. 

Acceleration of Harvesting in Brazil Has Collapsed Exchange Prices for Soybeans (Mar 1)

According to the Safras and Mercado agencies, as of February 24, in Brazil, soybeans were harvested in 30.3% of the area, which is slightly lower than the annual average of 31.4%, and in the main producing state of Mato Grosso, 76% of crops were threshed. Another local agency, AgRural, reports that on February 24 soybeans in the country were harvested in 33% of the area, compared to 43% on this date last year. Due to heavy rains during harvesting, the agency's experts lowered the soybean harvest forecast in Brazil in FY 2022/23 to 150.9M MT.

StoneX Raises Forecast for 22/23 Soybeans From Brazil (Mar 1)

Brazil's 2022/23 soybean production is expected to reach a record 154.66M MT, StoneX estimated on Mar 1, with an upward revision from the 154.21M MT previously forecast, in addition to predicting a historic high for corn despite the delay in planting the second crop. If confirmed, oilseed production will grow 21.6% compared to the 2021/22 season, when crops were severely punished in the South region. In this harvest, the drought and high temperatures caused by the La Niña climatic phenomenon also affected Rio Grande do Sul, but the performance of other producing states has compensated for the losses in Rio Grande do Sul, said the consultancy.

Datagro Reduces Projection for 2022/23 Soybean Crop in Brazil to 150.81M MT (Mar 1)

Soybean production in Brazil was estimated at 150.81M MT for the 2022/23 crop year, according to consultancy Datagro, down from the 152.08M MT projected in January. The reduction occurs in the midst of a drought that hit crops in Rio Grande do Sul and reduced the productive potential. 

Soybean Harvest Pace Improves in Brazil, but Work Remains Behind Schedule (Mar 1)

The harvest pace of the new Brazilian soybean crop registered some improvement in the period between February 18 and 24. Despite this, the pace remains below the five-year average, which is considered a delay. With more regional precipitation in W8, agricultural machines managed to advance at a better pace in most states, mitigating the accumulated delays. According to research carried out by SAFRAS & Mercado, up to February 24, 30.3% had been reaped from a total sown area of 43.749M hectares, equivalent to approximately 13.275M hectares. The previous week, the percentage was 20.9%. In the same period of the previous year, the percentage was 41.8%. The five-year average for the period is 31.4%. In Paraná, from a total area of 5.75m hectares sown, 19% were reaped, which is approximately 1.093M hectares. 

Soy Devaluation Is Big in the Midwest (Mar 1)

The soybean market in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul saw general devaluations of USD 0.58/bag (R$ 3.00) in prices, according to information released by TF Agroeconomia. “Mato Grosso do Sul sees general decreases of USD 0.58/sack (R$ 3.00) present throughout the State, this, the ideas for sales start to come out with greater frequency are proving increasingly impossible to beat. After reductions of USD 0.58/bag (R$ 3.00), in Dourados, prices were quoted at USD 29.54 (R$ 152.00), in Maracaju at USD 29.34 (R$ 151.00), in Sidrolândia at USD 29.15 (R$ 150.00), in Campo Grande at USD 29.54 (R$ 152.00) and in Chapadão do Sul at USD 28.96 (R$ 149.00)”, he comments.

Soybean Crops Predominate in Reproductive Stages (Mar 2)

Soybean crops predominate in reproductive stages, with 30% in flowering and 54% in grain filling, another 10% already in maturation, and 6% still in germination and vegetative development. The occurrence of irregular precipitation, more concentrated in the north of the state, mitigated the lack of moisture in part of the crops, where the accumulated volumes exceeded 30mm. The projected area for the 2022/23 harvest is 6.568M ha. The initially estimated productivity was 3.13K kg/ha.

Rains should bring relief to crops in the south of Brazil (Mar 2)

The meteorological instabilities that advance over the south of Brazil can bring relief to the hydric situation of corn and soy crops in the southwestern region of Rio Grande do Sul. The low-pressure region that acts over Paraguay, combined with the support of hot and humid air that comes from the Amazon region, carried by the current of winds called "Low-Level Jets", can bring rainfall with accumulations of up to 30 mm in the region from Uruguayan on Mar 3. The rains may be accompanied by locally strong thunderstorms. On Mar 4, the strongest instabilities will occur in the north of the state, moving towards Santa Catarina and Paraná. On Mar 5, the sky clears in the southwest of Rio Grande do Sul, while the instabilities continue in the east. Until Mar 6, volumes should approach 70 mm in some locations in the southwest of RS; pass 100 mm in the east of Santa Catarina and west of Paraná, these being the regions with the highest rainfall forecast for this weekend.

Deral Raises the Soybean Crop in Paraná (Mar 2)

Paraná's 2022/23 soybean crop was estimated on Mar 2 at 20.9M MT, up by around 200K MT from the January forecast, according to newly published figures by the Department of Rural Economy (Deral). The slight increase compared to the previous estimate occurred after the Department of Agriculture reduced the projection at the end of January, citing the impacts of the drought in December. With the soybean harvest having been carried out in 17% of the area and with more than half of the crop maturing, Deral now expects a 70% increase in production compared to the previous season, severely hit by drought.

Brazil’s Paraná Can Harvest the Largest Volume of Soybeans in History (Mar 2)

Soybean producers from Paraná will be able to produce, in an area of 5.76M ha, approximately 20.89M MT of soy in this first 2022/23 harvest. This volume, if confirmed, will be the largest in the history of Paraná. According to information from the Subjective Crop Forecast (PSS) released by the Department of Rural Economy (Deral) of the State Secretariat for Agriculture and Supply (Seab), for the month of February, expectations for the soybean crop represent a 70% increase in production volume compared to the 2021/22 harvest, when 12.31M MT were produced. The grain harvest advanced to 17% of the area this week, and 85% of the crops are in good conditions, 12% in medium conditions, and 3% in bad conditions. In this scenario of greater production, there was greater pressure on prices, according to Deral.

Soybean Outlook in Brazil According to USDA (Mar 3)

The office of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in Brasília maintained its projections for the Brazilian soybean harvest in the 2022/23 crop year at 153M MT. The estimate for the oleaginous planting area had a slight reduction, from 43.4M to 43.3M ha. Compared to the figures for the 2021/22 season, marked by heavy losses with the drought in southern Brazil, oilseed production and cultivation area are expected to grow by 21.3% and 5.9%, respectively. According to the USDA attaché in Brasilia, the planting area should increase due to advances, albeit marginal, in several producing states.

2022/23 Brazil Soybeans Are 33% Harvested Compared to 43% Last Year (Mar 3)

Yields in Mato Grosso are going to set a record while yields in Rio Grande do Sul are going to be very disappointing. The good yields in central Brazil are going to compensate for much of the losses in southern Brazil, but probably not all the losses. The final soybean production estimate will depend on what happens in Rio Grande do Sul. If the state receives good rains from this point forward, the Brazilian estimate might increase by 1-2M MT. If the rainfall is disappointing in the state, the Brazilian estimate might decline by 1-2M MT. The soybean harvest in Brazil was 33% complete as of late last week compared to 43% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 8% for the week. Dryer weather in Mato Grosso allowed farmers to make good progress, while wet weather in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul continued to keep farmers out of the field. 

Paraná Can Harvest 20.8M MT of Soybean, the Highest Volume in History (Mar 3)

Soybean producers in Paraná will be able to produce, in an area of 5.76M ha, approximately 20.89M MT of soy in this first 2022/2023 harvest. This volume, if confirmed, will be the largest in the history of Paraná. Expectations for the soybean crop represent a 70% increase in production volume compared to the 2021/22 harvest, when 12.31M MT were produced. The grain harvest advanced to 17% of the area this week, and 85% of the crops are in good conditions, 12% in medium conditions and 3% in bad conditions. According to the acting head of Deral, Larissa Nahirny, adding the first and second harvests, Paraná should produce 41.07M MT of grains (all crops) in the 2022/23 cycle.

USDA Forecasts Brazil’s Soybean Crop at 153M MT for 2022/23 (Mar 3)

Soybean production in Brazil is expected to reach 153M MT in the 2022/23 marketing year (February 2023 to January 2024), compared to 126.60M MT in the previous period. The information is from the Gain Report, from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The sown area should increase from 40.9M to 43.3M ha. According to the attaché, in conversations with producers throughout the state of Mato Grosso, they noted that they are seeing better yields than expected. Soybean exports are expected to total 97M MT in the 2022/23 season, compared to 77M MT in the previous commercial year. Domestic consumption was forecast at 55.1M MT for 2022/23, compared to 51.25M MT in the previous season.

Soybeans Were Higher on Mar 3 (Mar 3)

Soybeans rebound in the last three days of the week erased the significant drop that took place on Feb 28. Crush incentives for soybeans has been extremely supportive and that doesn’t appear to be changing anytime soon. Soybeans also found support in stronger soybean meal on Mar 3. Looking ahead to next week, the USDA will likely keep its estimates for ending stocks for US soybeans near unchanged in the upcoming Supply and Demand report. Argentina’s soybean crop continues to struggle while Brazil’s harvesting a record crop.

Soybean Harvest for 2022/23 Reaches 88% Of the Area in Mato Grosso (Mar 3)

Farmers in Mato Grosso harvested 88.12% of the soybean area in the 2022/23 harvest, a weekly advance of 11.86% points, and ahead of the historical average of 81.53% for the period, showed data from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) ton Mar 3. Already the corn second crop, which is sown immediately after the soybean harvest in the State, has 89.36% of crops planted, with works that touched the historical average after initial delays and a growth of 16.7 points in the week.

Overview of Soybean Market in the Week in Mato Grosso (Mar 3)

The United States Department of Agriculture released the first balance of the 23/24 soybean crop, informing an increase of 0.46% in the harvested area compared to the previous crop, projected at 35.09M ha. With this increase, a new production record estimated at 122.74M MT is expected, an increase of 5.47% compared to current results. American domestic consumption also grew by 3.66%, around 66.30M MT, compared to the past harvest. This is due to the growing volume of crushing, which is reflected in the greater demand for soy by-products. 

Safras Lowers Brazil’s 2022/23 Soybean Harvest Forecast to 152.43M MT (Mar 3)

Soybean production in Brazil in 2022/23 should total 152.43M MT, estimated on Mar 3 by consultancy Safras & Mercado, which reduced its forecast by 0.6% compared to the previous year of January. With the slight reduction, the consultancy estimates an increase of 18.6% over the previous season's harvest. If confirmed, it will be the biggest harvest in history. An important negative adjustment was made in the expected average productivity for Rio Grande do Sul, where the drought hit the crops. “The low humidity and high temperatures that hit part of the State's crops in February continued to cause problems for the development of plants in some regions, which removed the crops' productive potential”, informs Safras analyst, Luiz Fernando Roque. According to him, despite this, there are regions with crops that register good development, which helps to offset the more aggressive losses.

Soybean Harvest in Brazil for 2022/23 Reaches 43% (Mar 4)

The 2022/23 soybean harvest in Brazil in W9 reached 43% of the planted area, consultancy AgRural said. An increase of 10% points over the previous week but with rains still affecting the work of field. AgRural said in a statement that frequent rains in the states of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul have hampered further advances in work, keeping the pace of the delayed harvest. "In São Paulo and Minas Gerais, despite the lull in the rains this week, the accumulation of moisture contributes to the lengthening of the crop cycle, which results in a delay in relation to the same period last year", added the consultancy. 

United States

Soybean Meal Prices Rose on SWOT Exchange (Feb 27)

From February 17 to 24 on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the quotes for soybeans and soy products behaved differently. Quotes of soybeans and soybean meal rose by 0.11% to 1.22%, while quotations of soybean oil, on the contrary, fell. The situation with soybean prices remains difficult. On the one hand, there is no hope that it will be possible to harvest a good oilseed crop in Argentina, on the other hand, the prospects for its export are deteriorating. All this puts pressure on prices. During the week, American exporters sold 556.6K MT of soybeans, while experts expected sales from 300K MT to 1.15M MT. As a result, from February 17 to February 24, soybean quotes rose from USD 15.27 to USD 15.29/bushel, up 0.11%. Meal quotes increased from USD 491.1 to USD 497.1/MT, up 1.22%, and soybean oil fell from USD 0.62 to USD 0.611/pound, down 0.65%. 

Soy Market in Chicago Remains Stable but Starts to Operate on the Negative Side of the Table (Feb 27)

In the early afternoon of Feb 27, the soybean market continued to operate with stability but moved to the negative side of the table. Quotations yielded between 2.50 and 4.50 points in the main maturities, taking March to USD 15.26 and May to USD 15.17/bushel, after having tested slight gains earlier. The conclusion of the South American crop remains in focus, despite the new and recent initial figures for the United States crop, especially for Argentina, which continues to suffer from adverse weather conditions. However, the market feels the correction movement and even some technical fall following the more aggressive lows that are observed in wheat, of more than 1% in the most traded contracts, and also monitors the slight retreats that are registered by the bran. 

More Red Ink for Soybeans (Feb 27)

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. Brazil’s harvest is more than 30% complete, slower than average, but still already about 50M MT. The record crop in Brazil should cancel out the production losses due to the drought in Argentina. South America is expected to produce a combined crop of around 5B bushels. That’s already cutting into export demand for U.S. soybeans. Sales have slowed down, but there are relatively few unshipped bushels, which might lessen cancellations. Export inspections were down on the week and the year, but the 2022/23 pace remains ahead of 2021/22 heading into the back half of the marketing year. Last week’s top destinations were China and Mexico. The trade is also monitoring US conditions ahead of widespread planting. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads.

Chicago Close Price of Grains (Feb 27)

The oilseed followed cereals and closed with losses in all positions. The effect of a higher planted area indicator for the coming season in the US put pressure on prices this week. In turn, some rainfall in Argentina, a key producer and exporter of soybeans worldwide, added to a decrease in the volume of soybeans exported from the North country during W8 and influenced bean prices downwards.

Soybean Exports Fell in the US (Feb 27)

Soybean sales increased 20% from the W8 to 544.9K MT swt, the USDA said. It is still 18% below the average of the previous four weeks. China bought 176.2K MT, Egypt bought 142.3K MT, Holland took 125.2K MT, Germany bought 124.3K MT and Indonesia bought 81.4K MT. Exports were reported at 338K MT, 32 down from the previous week.

How the Soybean Market Behaved (Feb 27)

The past week was marked by many fluctuations in Chicago prices. Speculations continue about crop failure in Argentina, the delay of the Brazilian harvest, and the first figures on forecasts for the US crop has also been released. As a result, the contract maturing on March/23 ended the week quoted at USD 5.29 a bushel (-0.13%), and the one maturing on May/23, at USD 15.19 a bushel (- 0.13%). The Outlook Forum of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicated that the 2023/24 crop should not increase in area, but should increase productivity, and may have a harvest with record numbers, totaling 122.74M MT. The market expected an increase in planted area. However, given the excellent production expectations, he interpreted the data as favorable for an increase in world supply, putting downward pressure on Chicago. 

In-Season US Soybean Shipments Are up 3% From Last Year (Feb 27)

In the week ended February 23, the US shipped 690.98K MT of soybeans, while the market was expecting something between 850K and 1.7M MT. In every season, American shipments reached 42.084M MT, 3% more than in the same period last year. 

In the US, Illinois Counties Secure Top National Ranks in 2022 Corn and Soybean Production (Feb 27)

McClean County was the top soybean-producing county in the US for 2022 at 21.2M bushels. Iroquois, Champaign, Livingston, and LaSalle counties also ranked in the top ten for soybean production. The top 11 counties for soybean yields in the US are also in Illinois. Piatt County secured the top spot with 74.2 bushels per acre. Macon, Sangamon, Scott, and Logan counties finished in the top five with average yields of 71 BPA or higher. Tazewell, Stark, Morgan, Christian, Champaign, and Woodford counties rounded out the top 11 nationally.

US Production of Soya Expected to Rise (Feb 27)

Soybean supplies are projected at 130.764MT, 4% above 2022/23 with increased production partly offset by lower beginning stocks. Actual soybean production in 2023 is projected at 122.5MT, 5% above a year earlier. Higher yields will account for most of the increase. The yield forecast of 3.54MT/ha is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal growing season weather. The projected planted area is unchanged from 2022/2023 at 35Mha. US soybean exports for 2023/2024 are projected at 55.2MT, up by 1MT from the 2022/23 forecast. With a record harvest currently underway in Brazil, South American supplies will be higher this year as the US 2023/24 export season gets underway.

Soy Operated With Slight Highs in Beginning of W9 in Chicago, US (Feb 27)

The soybean market operated with slight highs on Feb 27 at the Chicago Stock Exchange. Around 7:05 am (Brasília time), quotations rose between 0.50 and 2.75 points in the main maturities, with May being quoted at USD 15.31 and May, at USD 15.21 per bushel. In the complex, increases also among oil futures, of almost 0.6%, taking the first position to USD 1,358.71/MT (61.63 cents per pound). In bran, small casualties were being recorded among the most traded contracts. The conclusion of the South American crop remains in focus, despite the new and recent initial figures for the United States crop, especially for Argentina, which continues to suffer from adverse weather conditions.

US Ups Weekly Export Sales of Soybeans (Feb 28)

According to the USDA, during the period February 10-16, the United States increased export sales of soybeans and wheat, while sales of corn, soy derivatives, sorghum, and rice declined, according to Brownfield. In this period, the United States sold 544.9K MT of soybeans (+20% per week), of which 176.2K MT went to China and 142.3K MT to Egypt. The direction of shipments of another 311.3K MT of oilseeds is not indicated.

Soybean Futures Drop In Overnight Trading (Feb 28)

Soybean Futures Drop in Overnight Trading Soybean futures plunged in overnight trading as the harvest in Brazil, the world's largest exporter, increases the amount of available supply globally. Brazilian farmers are now a third of the way through the harvest, consultancy AgRural said. Growers in the South American country are expected to produce 153M MT of soybeans this year, according to the US Department of Agriculture. If realized, that would be up from the 129.5M MT produced a year earlier and the country's largest crop on record. Exports from Brazil are projected at 92M MT, up from 79.1M MT a year earlier. The US, by contrast, will produce 116.4M MT and ship 54.2M MT of soybeans in 2023, USDA said. That would be down from 121.5M MT and 58.7M MT, respectively. 

Another Round of Losses in Soybeans in the US (Feb 28)

Soybeans were sharply lower on fund and technical selling. Traders liquidated positions at the end of the month under the influence of slower demand due to Brazil’s record crop. That record crop in Brazil should cancel out drought losses in Argentina. The USDA’s updated supply and demand outlook is out on March 8th, while CONAB’s new outlook for Brazil’s crops is set for March 9th. Soybean meal and oil were lower on liquidation and a lack of new export demand even as crops wither in Argentina, which is normally the world’s biggest exporter of soybean products. That said, domestic margins and demand remain bullish.

Spring Crop Insurance Prices Set in the US (Feb 28)

Spring crop insurance prices, which are computed by averaging the daily close of new-crop futures contracts throughout February, should provide farmers with good risk management. Spring reference prices for crop insurance were set at USD 5.91 per bushel of corn, USD 13.76 per bushel of soybeans, and USD 8.87 per bushel of spring wheat, as the market closed on Feb 28. The prices are an essential component of revenue protection crop insurance policies, the most popular subsidized insurance option among US farmers. The spring reference prices are computed by averaging the daily closing price of the December corn, November soybean, and September spring wheat contracts throughout February. Those numbers are combined with the farm's actual production history (APH) to determine a level of revenue to establish the crop insurance guarantee. Farmers can elect to insure up to 85% of that revenue, with most choosing to purchase 75%, 80%, or 85% depending on what the premiums are in their area. 

Chicago Close Grain Price (Feb 28)

The oilseed closed mixed, with drops in close positions of more than USD 4/MT, while with slight gains in distant ones. First, concerns about the North's soybean exports and the slow pace of these weighed on future prices, as the growing South American crop could provide more supplies for foreign buyers, leading to the bulk of the quotes operating in negative. However, the prolonged drought in South America generated uncertainty about the effective volume of the region's harvests, with Argentina as the country hardest hit by water deficits, which provided bullish support and led to gains in some positions.

Grains Closing Prices in Chicago (Mar 1)

The oilseed followed cereals and deepened its fall on Mar 1. Soybeans lost USD 10/MT and fell to their lowest level since January 3. Furthermore, on a monthly basis, it was the worst drop since November 2022. The bean faced fundamental downward pressure as recently harvested supplies from Brazil became available on the global market, driving prices lower.

Soybean Price Fell by 2.2% On the Most Active Deadline (Mar 1)

Soybeans had the biggest fall, the price fell by 2.2% on the most active deadline, which is the biggest daily drop since December 1. Soybeans were the most vulnerable to selling, traders said, as wheat and corn had already fallen significantly since the start of 2023, while the soybean market had to catch up with trends. Additionally, soybeans faced fundamental pressure as recently harvested supplies from Brazil's largest producer became available on the global market. Soybeans fell 3.8% last month, the first monthly decline since September. 

Soybeans Have a Sharp Drop on the Chicago Stock Exchange (Mar 1)

Soybeans closed sharply on the Chicago Stock Exchange, with investors reflecting on the advance of the crop harvest in Brazil. Oilseed contracts due for May, the most traded, closed down 2.23%, at USD 14.79 per bushel. The Brazilian offer grows in the international market as the harvest progresses in the country. According to the National Supply Company (Conab), the harvest of the 2022/23 crop reached 34% of the area until Feb 23, against a percentage of 42.1% observed in the same period last year. 

Soybeans Finds Support (Mar 2)

Soybeans were able to finish the day higher despite a Weekly Export Sales report that was nothing to write home about. There was some definite support from broader markets. Soybean oil was pushed higher as palm oil hit its highest level in several months. Soybean meal was higher. Soybean harvest in Brazil’s central and northern regions continues to battle rain but is making some progress, and yields have been good. Conditions in Argentina, however, continue to decline as the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated just 2% of the country’s crop as good to excellent.

US Weekly Soybean Sales Come Weak and Mark the Low of the 2022/23 Season (Mar 2)

The numbers of weekly sales for North American exports released Mar 2 by the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) came in as expected for soybeans, derivatives, and corn. Soybean sales in the week ended February 23 were 360.7K MT, the lowest weekly volume recorded in the 2022/23 season. Still, the number came within the range expected by the market from 300K to 850K MT. China was the main destination for oilseeds from the US, accounting for the purchase of more than 218K MT. In every season, the country has committed 48.814M MT, against more than 50M in the same period last year. The USDA estimates total US soybean exports to be 54.16M MT. 

Soybean and Corn Area Should Total 72.24M Ha (Mar 2)

On February 23 and 24, the Agricultural Outlook Forum of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) took place. This annual event is highly anticipated as it brings the first estimates about the intention to cultivate the North American grain crop, in this case, the 2023/24 season, to be sown in April/May. With regard to corn and soybeans, an increase in area is expected in the United States, which together should add up to 72.24M ha.

US Export Sales for Soybeans Hit Marketing-Year Low (Mar 2)

Soybean sales hit a marketing-year low and were down 14% from W8 and 25% from the 4-week averages. Corn export sales continue at a lackluster pace as sales dropped 27% on the week and 48% compared to the prior 4-week average. Wheat sales declined 16% on the week, but the 4-week average was up 39%. 

Export Sales of Soybeans From the United States Decreased in W9 (Mar 3)

The volume of export sales of American soybeans in the reporting week fell to a minimum for the current marketing year. This was announced on Mar 2 by the US Department of Agriculture. According to the ministry, in the week of February 17-23, export sales of soybeans for delivery in the marketing year 2022/23 amounted to 360.7K MT, which was the minimum for the current marketing year. Sales of soybeans for delivery in 2023/24 amounted to 134K MT. The total volume of soybean exports for delivery in 2022/23 and 2023/24 was at the lower end of the forecast range of traders surveyed by the Wall Street Journal. They believed sales were 300K-975K MT. Such a low figure is associated with the cancellation of the sale of 300.7K MT of soybeans to unknown buyers. The largest buyers of American soybeans in the reporting week were China, Germany, and Mexico.

Soybeans Highest in US Overnight Trade (Mar 3)

Soybean futures were higher as domestic crush increased MoM and the grain posted modest gains in overnight trading. Processors crushed 191M bushels of soybeans in January, up from 187M the previous month, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said. The total is still down from the 194M bushels processed during the same month a year ago. This led to the production of 2.25B pounds of oil, up 3% from December but down 1% from a year earlier. Iowa was the biggest soybean crusher in January, with 1.15M MT, followed by Illinois with 679.97K MT, government data show. The US dollar was down 0.25% in overnight trading, which may make US supplies more attractive to overseas customers. Buyers are entering the market after a brief sell-off that lasted until earlier this week.


Argentina’s Soy Crop Forecast Cut Again as Extreme Weather Bites (Feb 27)

Argentina’s 2022/23 soybean crop is estimated at 33.5M MT, down from 38M MT previously forecast, as drought, a recent heat wave, and early frosts have taken their toll on the key cash crop. The new estimate marks the third cut the Buenos Aires grains exchange has issued for soybean production, which at the beginning of the season was estimated at 48M MT. The drought hitting Argentina’s agricultural sector is the worst in the past 60 years, according to the Rosario grains exchange. In some producing areas, the lack of significant rainfall dates back to last May. 

Buenos Aires Exchange Cuts Projections for Argentine Soybean Crop Due to Adverse Weather (Mar 2)

The frosts registered recently in parts of the agricultural area of Argentina generated additional losses to the soybean crop in the country. Therefore, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange cut its projection for the country’s production to 33.5M MT, down 4.5M MT. According to the report, besides the frost, the combination of lack of rain and high temperatures in most of February keep damaging plants. With no forecast for rain in the short term, the numbers have been readjusted. The water deficit affects 71% of crops, against 67% last week and 41% a year ago.

Condition of the Soybean and Corn Crop Worsens During W9 (Mar 3)

The condition of soybean crops in Argentina has worsened in the last week, informed the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange, in a weekly report. According to the document, 2% of the crop was in good or excellent condition, compared to 3% in the previous week. The portion in normal conditions decreased from 37% to 31%, while the percentage in fair or poor conditions increased from 60% to 67%.

Argentine Companies Warn of USD 20B Crop Loss From Drought and Frost (Mar 3)

A consortium of Argentine agricultural companies said on Mar 3 it had lowered its forecasts for this season's soybean and corn crops due to a historic drought and mid-summer frost that the companies warned could cost the country more than USD 20B Argentina, the world's largest exporter of oil and soybean meal and the third largest exporter of corn on the planet, was hit by a severe drought, described by the Rosario grain exchange, in the province of Santa Fe, as the worst in 60 years. CREA expects a soybean harvest of 31.2M MT for the 2022/23 season, below the initial forecast of 50M MT, it said in a statement.

Hot, Dry Weather and High Temperatures Continue to Cause Additional Losses in Soybeans (Mar 3)

The dry weather and high temperatures during the last seven days continue to affect the planted area while 62.2% of the tables are in the critical period for the definition of yields (R3-R6). Sectors over the center of the agricultural area report loss of squares, abortion of pods and early completion of filling as a consequence of the high temperatures registered during W9. This scenario will affect our current production estimate of 33.5M MT. To date, 10M ha are in the critical period for the definition of yields (R3-R6), concentrating on the center of the agricultural area, while 56.8% of the 16.2M ha report a water condition between regular and drought. The evaluation of the damage generated by the low temperatures and early frosts during the middle of February continues.

Harvest of Argentinian Soybean Forecasted to Drop In 2023 (Mar 4)

In Central Argentina, the new soybean harvest is expected to drop by a third to a half of the average harvests in previous years. In 2023, the expected harvest will reach 15-20qq/ha, and the average harvest in previous years was 35-40qq/ha. This drop is expected due to the droughts the country is facing


Domestic Prices for Soybeans Remained More or Less Stable (Mar 2)

Domestic prices for soybeans remained more or less stable during the reporting period. At the same time, exports decreased slightly. The decline occurred against the backdrop of low demand and lower prices for soybean oil. At the same time, the fall was limited by high prices for meals and cakes. Export prices for soybeans (NON-GMO) were in the range of USD 460-470/MT at the CPT ports of Greater Odessa (-USD 5/MT). At the western border, prices were USD 470-490/MT (-USD 10 USD/MT). Prices for soybeans (NON-GMO) delivered by road to factories in Italy were USD 570-585/MT (-USD 5/MT). Prices with delivery to Serbia were USD 555-565/MT, DAP (- USD 10/MT). Prices with delivery to factories in Hungary were 525-535/MT, DAP (- USD 5/MT).


Russian Soybeans Are on the Rise (Mar 4)

Prices for soybeans in the Russian Federation show an increasing trend, which is associated with indirect support of the world market through soybeans and soybean meal. Oil is more likely to stagnate, while the cost of selling meal in the Russian Federation has increased. The spring activation of purchases should also meet the growth of offers from agricultural producers, who still have significant stocks of beans in the Central Federal District and certain regions of the South of Russia.


Soy Lecithin Prices Remain at Record Highs in Turkey in W9 (Mar 1)

Non-GMO soy lecithin, which was usually priced around USD 2K-2.5K/MT CIF Mersin before the Russian war with Ukraine started, skyrocketed to USD 5K/MT after the start of the war. The prices remain stable at this level, and the price gap in the market starts to increase as time passes. In W9, Turkish buyers note that they are quoted as low as USD 4.5K/MT CIF Mersin and as high as USD 7K/MT CIF Mersin for Indian-origin non-GMO soy lecithin.


Soybeans Are Consolidated as an Alternative for Second Crops in Aragon (Mar 1)

This is what Jesús Abadías, responsible for sustainability and innovation at Cooperativas Agro-alimentarias de Aragón, says. He points out that "soybean allows the farmer to make a necessary rotation for his farms and, in addition, it is a crop with an important economic value." However, in 2022 there was a decrease in the number of hectares cultivated with soybeans in Aragon. It was due to the climatic conditions since it is a crop that suffers from a lack of humidity. The Aragonese Network of Extensive Crops and Legumes (Red Arax) studies the behavior of soybeans in three test fields. Miguel Gutiérrez, head of herbaceous crops at the Aragón Agrifood Transfer Center, affirms that “it’s information that we intend to improve starting this year through the use of precision techniques; The objective is to have more data to improve the agronomy and profitability of soybeans in Aragon”.


Area Under Soya Bean in Zimbabwe Rises by 9% (Mar 4)

Soya bean contractors are optimistic of a huge harvest this season after a 9% increase in the area under soya bean from 51.49K ha in the previous season to 55.94K ha now. The jump in the area under soya bean is expected to reduce Zimbabwe’s import bill. This comes as imports of crude and refined soya bean oil and fractions, surged 30% to USD 290M in 2022, from USD 223M in the prior year, according to statistics from the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStats). The Government has been calling for import substitution through increased local production. Since 2010, Zimbabwe’s import of crude and refined soya bean oil has been on an upward trend from USD 30M in 2010 to USD 290M in 2022, representing a whopping 867% rise.


19K MT of Soybeans Were Released, at a Value of About USD 14.2M (Feb 27)

Mr. Al-Qaseer, Minister of Agriculture and Land Reclamation announced that during the period from Feb 17 to Feb 23, 136K MT of corn and soybeans, worth about USD 58M, were released. He added that the release includes 117K MT of corn, at about USD 42M, and about 19K MT of soybeans, at a value of about USD 14.2M, as well as feed additives at about USD 1.4M, bringing the total of what was released during the period from (October 16, 2022, to February 23, 2023) 2.746M MT, including 1.948M MT of corn, 798K MT of soybeans and feed additives, with a total amount of USD 1.367B.

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