China

Cold Weather Hits China’s Major Wheat-Growing Regions (Mar 2)

In China, the main areas of wheat production were affected by cold temperatures and droughts, damaging wheat crops. The upcoming months will show the damage temperatures had on the summer grain. 

India

Wheat Production May Face Terminal Heat Stress Again (Feb 28)

Heat waves during March of 2022 forced the Indian government to ban wheat exports to ensure food security. Officials estimate wheat output may again face terminal heat stress in 2023, which could result in lower production. The estimated wheat output decreased to 107.7MT as against the second advance estimate of 112.2MT.

India Braces for Another Heatwave (Mar 1)

Meteorological data has reported another period of elevated air temperatures is forecasted from March to May in key wheat-growing regions of India. In March, a crucial month for the maturation of winter crops, the air temperature may exceed the average, while wheat crops already received significant damage due to high temperatures in February at 29.5°C.

High Temperature Unlikely to Damage Wheat Crops, Says Food Secretary (Mar 3)

The Union Food Secretary of India reported wheat crops are unlikely to be damaged by high temperatures and achieved a record output of 112M tonnes in the crop year ending in June. The secretary mentioned the ban on wheat exports would continue, boosting the availability of grains. The government procures around 35M tonnes of wheat in the 2023/23 marketing year (from April to March).

The Government of India Plans to Purchase up to 34M Tons of New Crop Wheat Into State Reserves (Mar 3)

The Indian government announced its intention to buy around 34M tons of new crop wheat into state reserves to increase domestic stocks after a reduction in grain production last year due to drought. In 2022, only 18.8M tons were purchased, a decrease of 53% from 2021. 

Russia

Russian Wheat Price Falls With Global Trend and Higher Domestic Supply (Feb 28)

In Russia, wheat prices decreased during the week amid a downward trend in global markets, a growing domestic supply, and low demand from exporters. The market is awaiting the safe passage extension of Black Sea grain exports.

In February, the Russian Federation Increased Shipments of Wheat for Export by 24% (Feb 28)

In February, Russia exported 2.95M tons of wheat, a 24% increase compared to February 2022, wheat supplies to Egypt increased more than three times to almost 800K tons.

Export Duty on Wheat From Russia Will Increase by 1.8% From March 9 (Mar 3)

The Ministry of Agriculture reported the export duty of Russia from March 9 will increase to USD 70.75/ton (RUB 5,371.6/ton) from USD 69.48/ton (RUB 5,275.2/ton). 

United States

In the United States Wheat Acreage This Year May Reach a Maximum in the Last 7 Years (Feb 27)

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) informed farmers are planning to expand the sown area under wheat by 8% in 2023 to 20M hectares, the highest figure in seven years. Wheat harvest is forecasted to reach 51.4M tons, with a yield of 3.3 t/ha.

Wheat Prices Fell to the Lowest Level Since September 2021 (Feb 28)

In the United States, wheat prices decreased to their lowest since September 2021 on easing short-term supply concerns. Wheat futures in Chicago trading ended on the eve of a decline of 1.6% to USD 71/bushel. Since the beginning of February, contracts have fallen in price by 6%, a record pace since November. 

Kansas Winter Wheat Rating Declines (Feb 28)

In Kansas, soil moisture levels slightly improved during February, but the red winter wheat crops remained in a grim state. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that 19% of Kansas's wheat crop is in excellent condition. 

France

Wheat and Corn Prices Continue to Fall, and There Is No Sign of a Trend Reversal (Feb 28)

The price of wheat in Paris decreased by USD 2.38/t (EUR 2.25/t) to USD 293.51/t (EUR 277.5/t). No further falls in Paris were due to the weak exchange rate of the euro; the European Central Bank set the reference rate at USD 1.0554, the lowest level in 2 months. 

Australia

Australian 23/24 Wheat Crop Faces El Nino Weather Risk (Mar 2)

Australia’s wheat crop may face risks from dry weather due to El Niño weather patterns in Q2 2023 after three years of record production. The La Niña pattern continues to ease as Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific rise.

Australian Wheat Prices Slip Slightly in W9 (Mar 3)

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) May 23 Wheat futures (ZW.K23) finished USD 0.75 firmer overnight, closing at USD 12.75 per bushel. This was supported by ongoing commentary regarding the renewal of the Black Sea grain corridor that expires in 15 days. The soybean production in Argentina seems to be slipping even more due to the ongoing drought. Flooding in Malaysia increased the production of oilseeds, which could affect the supply of palm oil worldwide. The Australian Wheat market was slightly down from this time in W8, with H2 slipping USD1.35/MT, from USD 299.90/MT* this time in W8 to USD 297.56/MT* in W9. APH1 is down USD 8.91/MT, from USD 289.65/MT* this time in W8 to USD 280.74/MT* in W9. AGP1 is down USD 7.23/MT, from USD 271.32/MT* this time in W8 to 264.09/MT * in W9.

Egypt

Egypt Prepared for Crises Early and Increased the Storage Capacity of Silos to 4.1M Tons (Feb 27)

The Minister of Supply and Internal Trade of Egypt reported its intention to reach the storage capacity of wheat silos to 4.1M tons, compared to the current 3.5M tons, by increasing the number of silos in the governorates.

Irrigation Stopped Drainage Operations Covered With Wheat Lands (Feb 27)

The Ministry of Irrigation of Egypt reported stopping drainage operations that cover the wheat lands to preserve the crop until its harvest to preserve the crop from damage or loss in implementation areas. 

Egypt Increases Purchases of Russian Wheat (Feb 27)

The Egyptian government purchased 240K tons of Russian wheat through a tender and will arrive at Egyptian ports by April 15, with a cost of USD 317.50/ton (including freight). At the end of January, Egypt had already received 63K tons of wheat from Russia. 

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Grain Market Operators on Forced Pause (Mar 3)

In Kazakhstan, wheat prices continue to decrease. Market participants reported a pause in grain purchases due to the strengthening of the national currency against the USD, low trading activity on export platforms, and lower prices for wheat of Russian origin. 

Ukraine

In February, Ukraine Exported More Than 5M Tons of Grain (Mar 1)

The State Customs Service of Ukraine reported since the beginning of MY 2022/23, Ukraine exported 32.28M tons of grain and leguminous crops, of which 18.092M tons were wheat, compared to 11.338M tons in 2021/22 MY.

Ukraine Does Not Plan to Restrict Wheat Exports 2023/24 (Mar 2)

Ukraine reported wheat export restrictions are not planned for the upcoming 2023/24 July-June season as the winter harvest is forecasted to be higher than expected. The First Deputy Finance Minister mentioned government-imposed limits on wheat exports that would preserve more wheat for domestic consumption.