1. Weekly News

France

ANSES Warns of ToFBV Risks

On February 27, the French Food Safety Agency (ANSES) warned about the emerging Tomato Fruit Blotch Virus (ToFBV), which is distinct from the Tomato Brown Rugose Fruit Virus (ToBRFV), and urged further risk assessments. Researchers first identified ToFBV in Italy in 2018 and Australia in 2019 before detecting it in Brazil, Portugal, Spain, Slovenia, Greece, and Switzerland. With no regulations in place, ToFBV remains tough to manage due to its late symptom onset, which prevents early detection. The virus primarily affects the fruit, causing severe discoloration and deformation that makes tomatoes unmarketable. Unlike ToBRFV, ToFBV does not damage leaves, and its delayed symptom onset appearance complicates control efforts. The virus has already caused significant economic losses in Italy and Spain.

Kenya

Researchers Work to Improve Tomato Yields Amid Low Productivity

Kenya cultivates over 300 tomato varieties, with the Kenya Agricultural Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) continuing to breed and improve new ones. Currently, researchers are identifying the best irrigation practices for tomato production. Kenya’s 500,000 tomato farmers struggle to meet local demand due to poor seed varieties, which limit yields to 8.8 metric tons (mt) per acre, far below the potential 20 mt.

Zimbabwe

Winter Tomato Production in Zimbabwe Encouraged for Frost-Free Regions

Small-scale farmers in frost-free regions in Zimbabwe are encouraged to increase tomato production during the winter months to capitalize on consistent year-round demand and higher prices when supply is lower. While frost-prone areas face challenges, farmers in frost-free regions can maximize yields and profits by filling the market gap. Farmers in Lowveld areas could optimize land use by growing tomatoes in winter, benefiting from firm prices and improved incomes. Both indeterminate and determinate tomato varieties are available, with pest- and disease-tolerant options suited to local conditions.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Tomato Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Tomato Pricing Important Exporters (W11 2024 to W11 2025)

Mexico

In W11, Mexico's tomato prices surged 64.29% week-on-week (WoW) and 11.65% month-on-month (MoM) to USD 1.15 per kilogram (kg). This sharp price increase is due to supply shortages and strong export demand. Unseasonably low temperatures and heavy rainfall in key producing regions such as Sinaloa and Baja California in late Feb-25 and early Mar-25 disrupted harvesting and slowed crop development, reducing market availability. According to industry reports, tomato production in Sinaloa declined by approximately 18% compared to the previous month. Moreover, strong demand from the United States (US) market, where adverse weather had also impacted local supply, led to higher export volumes, further tightening domestic availability and driving up prices.

Morocco

In W11, Morocco's tomato prices surged 37.93% WoW and 35.59% MoM to USD 0.80/kg from USD 0.58/kg in W10. This sharp increase is due to lower domestic supply and strong export demand. Adverse weather conditions in key producing regions, particularly Souss-Massa, resulted in cold temperatures and excessive rainfall, which disrupted harvesting and reduced yields. Logistic challenges, including transportation delays and higher input costs, further constrained supply. At the same time, strong European demand, particularly from France and Spain, increased export shipments, tightening availability in the domestic market. The tightening supply and rising input costs for fertilizers and energy further contributed to the price surge.

Spain

In W11, Spain's tomato prices rose 3.41% WoW, 22.97% MoM, and 13.75% year-on-year (YoY) to USD 0.91/kg. Adverse weather in Almería and Murcia, with daytime temperatures of 17 to 19°C and nighttime lows of 7 to 9°C on Feb-25, slowed plant growth and delayed harvests, tightening supply. In Mar-25, supply constraints kept prices high despite improving weather. The Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) reported a warming trend, with temperatures rising to 22 to 24°C, enhancing growing conditions and supporting harvests. However, market stabilization remained uncertain due to prior disruptions.

Türkiye

In W11, Türkiye's tomato prices increased 4.55% WoW and 6.48% MoM to USD 1.15/kg. This price rise is primarily driven by strong export demand, as Türkiye's tomato exports reached USD 536 million in 2023 and continue to grow. The tightened domestic supply due to heightened international demand has exerted upward pressure on prices. Moreover, the Turkish tomato market expanded modestly to USD 8.7 billion in 2024, reflecting a 3.5% YoY increase, signaling robust domestic consumption alongside export growth.

France

In W11, France's tomato prices surged 26.37% WoW and 43.50% MoM to USD 2.54/kg, signaling a market rebound after weak prices in Feb-25 due to sluggish demand. Market conditions shifted as demand strengthened, driven by the start of the month, school reopenings, improving weather, and a seasonal shift toward spring produce. Retail chains have begun transitioning to French-grown tomatoes, further boosting demand. Since supply cannot keep pace, producers have increased prices to capitalize on the market recovery..

3. Actionable Recommendations

Strengthen Virus Surveillance and Prevention Measures

Strengthening virus surveillance and prevention measures is crucial to mitigating the spread of ToFBV and other emerging threats. Conduct regular tests in key tomato production areas as it will help detect early infections before they cause widespread damage. Farmers should be encouraged to adopt strict quarantine measures for affected crops, preventing the further spread of the virus. Moreover, use certified disease-free seeds and research into resistant varieties to provide long-term protection against these emerging diseases.

Enhance Cold-Weather Resilience in Key Growing Regions

Enhancing cold-weather resilience in key tomato-growing regions will stabilize production during adverse conditions. Unseasonable cold and heavy rainfall in Mexico and Morocco disrupted supply. Farmers should adopt protected cultivation methods like greenhouses and tunnel farming to shield crops from temperature fluctuations. In Zimbabwe, where winter tomato production presents market opportunities, growers in frost-prone areas should implement protective measures such as row covers, irrigation-based frost protection, and thermal soil management to maintain yields. Moreover, diversifying crop production in vulnerable regions will reduce reliance on tomatoes during high-risk seasons, ensuring more stable farmer incomes.

Optimize Supply Chains to Stabilize Prices

Optimizing supply chains is essential in Mexico and Morocco to stabilize tomato prices and prevent severe market fluctuations. Improved logistics and storage facilities will help reduce post-harvest losses and ensure supply remains steady despite seasonal disruptions. In Kenya and Zimbabwe, small-scale farmers can benefit from forming cooperatives, strengthening their market access and improving their bargaining power with buyers. Contract farming agreements with processors and retailers should also be encouraged, providing farmers with a more predictable market and helping stabilize prices throughout the year.

Sources: Tridge, East Fruit, Horti Daily