Weekly Product Updates

W14 Maize (Corn) Update: Brazil's Corn Harvest Progress Slightly Behind 2023’s Pace, Argentina's 2023/24 Crop Forecast Slips Amid Disease Concerns

Maize (Corn)
United States
Published Apr 12, 2024
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In W14 in the maize (corn) landscape, Brazil's first corn crop harvest for the 2023/24 season has reached 46.4%, slightly trailing 2023's progress. The most advanced states include Paraná, São Paulo, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. Additionally, Argentina's corn harvest forecast for 2023/24 has been adjusted to 52 mmt due to the impact of the "spiroplasma" disease, potentially leading to further reductions. Meanwhile, the USDA reported a 21% WoW decline in corn sales for the 2023/24 harvest, with significant purchases from Japan, Mexico, Colombia, South Korea, and Taiwan. The USDA's initial report for the 2024/25 season indicates that fieldwork for corn and cotton has begun, with planting progress mirroring last year's pace.

Brazilian Corn Harvest at 46.4% in W14

The National Supply Company (Conab)'s latest report on Brazilian crop progress shows that the harvest of the first corn crop for the 2023/24 season has reached 46.4%, slightly behind 2023's pace. The most advanced states in harvesting include Paraná (91%), São Paulo (85%), Santa Catarina (80%), and Rio Grande do Sul (80%). Additionally, the distribution of corn crops across different growth stages, with 1.9% in the vegetative development phase, 5.5% in flowering, 19.7% in grain filling, 26.4% in maturation, and 46.4% already harvested.

Brazil's Corn Export Plunged in Mar-24

Brazil witnessed a notable downturn in unground corn exports in Mar-24, with volumes plummeting to 431,307.9 metric tons (mt), comprising just 32.3% of the total exports of Mar-23, which stood at 1,335,257.5 mt. This marks a stark 67.7% year-on-year (YoY) decrease in daily average shipments. Financially, this decline led to a 72.5% YoY reduction in revenue from corn exports, amounting to USD 110.417 million, accompanied by a 14.9% YoY decrease in the average price from USD 300.90/mt to USD 256.00/mt. The National Cereal Exporters Association (ANEC) further projects a 32% YoY decline in corn exports for 2024, estimating exports to be around 38 million metric tons (mmt), a significant drop from the record 56 mmt exported in 2023.

Argentina's Corn Harvest Forecast Dips to 52 MMT Amid Disease Concerns

Argentina's 2023/24 corn harvest is projected to be 52 mmt, down from the previous estimate of 54 mmt. This adjustment is due to cases of the "spiroplasma" disease affecting crops, with the possibility of further reductions in the forecast. The world's third-largest corn exporter, Argentina has seen an increase in cases of leafhopper-transmitted diseases, prompting the second reduction in cereal production forecasts. Initially, the harvest estimate for 23/24 corn stood at 56.5 mmt. The normal to excellent condition for summer cereal dropped 8% over the last week due to the incidence of diseases transmitted by the leafhopper.

US Corn Exports Dipped in Week Ending March 28, 2024

In the week ending March 28, United States (US) exporters disclosed sales of 948 thousand mt of corn from the 2023/24 harvest, inclusive of cancellations, as per the recent report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This volume marks a 21% week-on-week (WoW) decline and the average of the prior four weeks. The primary purchasers included Japan (339.9 thousand mt), Mexico (216.5 thousand mt), Colombia (150.4 thousand mt), South Korea (149.2 thousand mt), and Taiwan (109.8 thousand mt). These sales counterbalanced cancellations by undisclosed destinations (258.4 thousand mt) and Canada (65.9 thousand mt).

USDA Reports Initial Progress for 2024/25 Harvest Season

The USDA released its initial harvest monitoring bulletin for the 2024/25 season, indicating that fieldwork has commenced for corn and cotton in the summer harvests. Cereal planting has achieved 2% of the projected area, mirroring the same rate as last year. This aligns with the recent years' average of 1%. Traditionally, sowing in the US begins in the Delta region, slightly further south and east of the heart of the Corn Belt. Tennessee, for instance, has already planted 57% of its area, compared to 56% last year and 53% of the average.

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