Weekly Product Updates

W15 Avocado Update: Peruvian Avocado Production to Drop in 2024 Due to Weather Challenges, and Morocco's Avocado Exports Set to Reach Record High Despite Challenges

Fresh Avocado
Published Apr 15, 2024
In W15 in the avocado landscape, Peruvian avocado production is expected to decrease by 20% to 25% YoY due to high temperatures and rainfall in the 2024 season. Moreover, Peru's avocado exports are projected to drop by 16% YoY to 468 thousand tons. On the other hand, Morocco's avocado exports are expected to reach a record high, but challenges like droughts and water shortages could affect future exports. Lastly, Valencian Lamb Hass avocado production in Spain is expected to exceed 10 thousand tons.

Peruvian Avocado Production Drops and Prices Surge Amid Supply Shortage

According to the President of the Peruvian Avocado Association (ProHass), Peruvian avocado production is expected to decrease by 20% to 25% year-over-year (YoY) due to high temperatures and increased rainfall in the 2024 season. The decrease is due to reduced fruit tree growth in Trujillo, La Libertad, and Chiclayo, Lambayeque districts. Meanwhile, production on the northern coast is expected to drop by 30% YoY, while production on the central and southern coasts is forecasted to drop by 15% to 20% YoY. However, the Sierra Mountain plateau area is showing impressive performance, with 300 containers of Hass avocados shipped weekly.

Moreover, the reduced supply of avocados will cause prices to increase, similar to blueberry production. Peruvian avocado prices have risen by 40% to 50% YoY, and it is expected to remain at the current high level of USD 3.10 to 3.5 per kilogram (kg) by W25. Consequently, Peru's avocado exports are projected to drop by 16% YoY to 468 thousand tons. Peru plans to export more avocados to the United States (US), Europe, and Asia due to the excellent quality of the fruits.

Morocco's Avocado Exports Expected Reach Record High in 2023/24 Season

Moroccan avocado production and export industry is experiencing significant growth, with the 2023/24 season expected to achieve record export levels, possibly exceeding 60 thousand tons. This increase is driven by a 20% rise in harvest yields, supported by favorable weather conditions and expanded cultivation areas. However, challenges such as droughts, water shortages, and the discontinuation of government irrigation subsidies could affect future exports. Most exports currently focus on four European Union (EU) countries and the United Kingdom (UK), with efforts to diversify into markets like Georgia moving forward slowly.

Valencian Lamb Hass Avocado Production Set to Exceed 10 Thousand Tons

The avocado season in Spain's Valencia region is ending positively, especially for the Lamb Hass variety. The region has almost 4 thousand hectares (ha) dedicated to avocado cultivation, representing over 15% of Spain's total production. Prices for Lamb Hass avocados are stable, ranging from USD 2.45/kg to USD 2.77/kg (EUR 2.3/kg to EUR 2.6/kg) for larger sizes, USD 2.24/kg (EUR 2.1/kg) for medium sizes and USD 1.6/kg (EUR 1.5/kg) for smaller sizes. About 50 thousand new avocado saplings, mostly Lamb Hass, will be planted in Valencia in 2024. Valencian avocados are gaining recognition as a local, sustainable product with high nutritional value and strict traceability standards. They are increasingly available in major European supermarkets.

New Zealand's Avocado Industry Faces Lowest Export Volume in a Decade

In the 2023/24 harvest period, New Zealand's avocado industry saw a drop in export sales, hitting the lowest volume in ten years. Even though New Zealand hosted the World Avocado Congress, the industry's hopes for a successful harvest did not materialize, with exports staying below 1.5 million trays. The total yield is expected to be around 4.5 million trays, significantly lower than the previous four years. This decline also affects growers financially, with expectations of earnings per ha falling below USD 10 thousand.

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