Weekly Product Updates

W15 Rice Update: Rice Prices Declined in Key Exporting Countries, Pakistan's Growing Rice Production Challenges Indian Basmati Exports

Published Apr 16, 2024
In W15 in the rice landscape, Vietnam's rice exports soared in Q1-24, reaching over 2.1 mmt and earning nearly USD 1.4 billion, a 42% YoY increase. Despite concerns about overreliance on Vietnamese rice, key markets like the Philippines, Indonesia, China, Ghana, Malaysia, and Singapore continue to drive demand. However, diversification efforts in importing countries and declining prices in major exporting nations, including Vietnam, India, and Thailand, pose challenges to the global rice market. Meanwhile, India anticipates a decline in basmati rice exports in 2024 as Pakistan boosts production, aiming to capture international markets with competitive pricing.

Vietnam's Rice Exports Surge in Q1-24 Amid Diversification Efforts by Key Markets

Vietnam's rice exports surged in the first three months of 2024, totaling over 2.1 million metric tons (mmt) and earning nearly USD 1.4 billion, marking a 42% year-on-year (YoY) increase. The growth is due to heightened demand from key markets like the Philippines, Indonesia, China, Ghana, Malaysia, and Singapore. However, concerns about overreliance on Vietnamese rice have prompted these countries to explore diversifying their sources. Increased productivity and production area and support programs for farmers were implemented in countries like the Philippines and Indonesia. Additionally, African markets, traditional importers of Vietnamese rice, are striving for self-sufficiency in food production with support from external projects.

Rice Prices Dropped in Vietnam, India, and Thailand Due to Reduced Demand

Rice prices declined in various key exporting countries. In Vietnam, exported rice price has dropped, while India's 5% broken rice reached its lowest level since early Feb-24 due to reduced demand, with a quotation price of USD 540 to 548 per metric ton (mt) in W15 compared to W14's USD 550 to 558/mt. Similarly, Thai rice prices experienced a fourth consecutive weekly decrease, quoted at USD 570/mt in W15, down from USD 585 to 590/mt in W14. This decline comes as the biggest winter-spring harvest of the year is set to conclude in just over a week. However, with the harvest season ending soon, prices are expected to rise again.

Pakistan's Rising Rice Production Challenges India's Basmati Exports

India's basmati rice exports are anticipated to decline in 2024 as Pakistan increases production, poised to capture international markets with competitive pricing. Both countries supply to key markets like the United States (US), United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Iraq, and Iran. Despite India's 11.5% YoY increase in rice exports in 2023, generating a record revenue of USD 5.4 billion, Pakistan's improved production this year has led to lower prices and shifting market dynamics. Pakistan aims to boost its rice exports to 5 mmt in the 2023/24 fiscal year (FY), up from 3.7 mmt in the 2022/23 FY. The largest importer of Indian basmati rice, Iran reduced its purchases by 36% in 2023.

Philippine Rice Imports Rise in Q1, Expected to Reach 4.1 MMT for the Year

The Philippines saw a 24.2% YoY increase in rice imports in Q1-24, reaching 996 thousand mt. However, Mar-24 witnessed a 33% month-on-month (MoM) decline and a 44% YoY decrease. Imports primarily came from Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, and Myanmar. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts 4.1 mmt of rice imports for 2024, with a production of 12.125 mmt from 4.8 million hectares (ha) while consumption at 19.6 mmt. Persistent high rice prices are attributed to El Niño and global market conditions.

Rio Grande do Sul Advances in Rice Harvest for 2023/24 Season

Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, has harvested 44.62% of the 900.2 thousand hectares (ha) planted with rice for the 2023/24 season, according to the Rio Grandense do Arroz Institute (IRGA). Additionally, 7.4% of crops are in the reproductive stage, while 47% are in the maturation phase. Comparatively, 81% of the area was harvested in the same period last year. The Fronteira Oeste region leads in progress, with 58% completion, followed by the Western Border, Outer Coastal Plain, Internal Coastal Plain, South Zone, Campaign, and Central regions.

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