Weekly Product Updates

W15 Soybean Update: Global Soybean Exports Dip in Mar-24, Brazil and Paraguay Boost Production Forecasts

Market & Price Trends
Published Apr 18, 2024
In W15 in the soybean landscape, global soybean exports in Mar-24 declined by 5% YoY, totaling 17.28 mmt, primarily due to reduced supplies from Brazil and Ukraine. However, this marked a nearly 30% MoM increase from Feb-24. Brazil led exports with 12.63 mmt, followed by the US, Paraguay, and Ukraine. China remained the largest importer. Brazil's 2023/24 soybean harvest is expected to reach 145.46 mmt, with harvesting progress slightly behind last year. Brazilian soybean exports reached a record 22.09 mmt in Q1-24. The USDA revised Paraguay's soybean harvest estimate for 2023/24 to 10.5 mmt, contributing to a slight increase in South America's overall harvest estimate. In India, the USDA forecasts a 12.75 mmt soybean harvest for the 2024/25 marketing year, with domestic consumption and ending stocks also projected.

Global Soybean Exports Declined YoY in Mar-24 but Surged MoM

Global soybean exports in Mar-24 declined to 17.28 million metric tons (mmt), a 5% year-on-year (YoY) decrease compared to Mar-23's 18.13 mmt, primarily due to reduced oilseed supplies from Brazil and Ukraine. However, this figure marked a nearly 30% month-on-month (MoM) increase from Feb-24's 13.58 mmt. Brazil led the exports with 12.63 mmt, followed by the United States (US) with 3.20 mmt, Paraguay with 1.05 mmt, and Ukraine with 230 thousand metric tons (mt). China remained the largest importer with 11.12 mmt, followed by the European Union (EU) with 1.14 mmt and Argentina with 1.08 mmt in Mar-24. Despite the monthly fluctuations, total global soybean exports for Sept-23 to Mar-24 reached a record high of 96.7 mmt, up from 92.9 mmt in the corresponding period of the previous season.

Brazil Anticipates Increased Soybean Harvest for 2023/24 Season

Brazil's 2023/24 soybean harvest is projected to reach 145.46 mmt, up from the Mar-24 forecast of 143.92 mmt. This is due to an increase in the projected soybean planted area, which now stands at 45.16 million hectares (ha).

Brazil's 2023/24 Soybean Harvest Reached 78% Completion

As of April 4, Brazil's 2023/24 soybean harvest reached 78% of the cultivated area, up from 74% in W14 but slightly behind the 82% recorded during the same period in the 2022/23 season. Harvesting is mainly concentrated in the later calendar states of the North/Northeast and Rio Grande do Sul. Dry weather conditions in the Rio Grande do Sul have facilitated progress without harming areas. Additionally, some areas received beneficial rainfall last week.

Brazilian Soybean Exports Surged to Record High in Q1-24 Despite Price Challenges

Brazilian soybean exports reached a record 22.09 mmt in Q1-24, marking a 15.7% YoY increase. Cepea researchers attribute this growth to fixed-term contracts negotiated in 2023, anticipating continued intense shipments due to the dollar's appreciation against the real. However, the average price received for foreign soybean sales in Q1-24 was USD 25.78 per 60 kilogram (kg) sack (BRL 136.30/60 kg sack), the lowest since 2019 in real terms. Meanwhile, consumers are cautious in the national spot marketamid high Argentinian supply, potentially leading Brazilian producers to free up warehouse space.

USDA Raised Paraguay's Soybean Harvest Estimate to 10.5 MMT

In its Apr-24 report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised Paraguay's soybean harvest estimate for the 2023/24 campaign to 10.5 mmt, a 2% increase from the previous forecast of 10.3 mmt. However, local calculations suggest a range between 9.5 and 9.9 mmt. The USDA projects this production on a 3.56 million ha area with an average yield of 2.95 mt/ha. This slight increase of 200 thousand mt from the Mar-24 report contributes to a slight uptick in South America's overall 2023/2024 harvest estimate, from 221.85 to 222.05 mmt. In the US, soybean production is forecasted to reach 113.34 mmt, while the rest of the global market is expected to contribute 283.38 mmt.

The USDA estimates India's soybean harvest in the 2024/25 marketing year (MY) at 12.75 mmt, which is up from the previous 12.5 mmt. The cultivated area is expected to be 12.85 million ha, slightly less than the 12.9 million ha previously recorded. Domestic soybean consumption in India is forecasted to reach 13.65 mmt in 2024/25 MY, compared to 13.05 mmt in the previous year. Ending stocks are estimated to total 1.534 mmt for 2024/25 MY, down from 1.734 mmt in 2023/24 MY.

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