Weekly Product Updates

W15 Wheat Update: Global Wheat Forecast for 2024/25 Season Dropped Amid Regional Challenges, Brazil's Production Soars Despite Reduced Planting Area

Published Apr 18, 2024
In W15 in the wheat landscape, global wheat production for the 2024/25 season is projected to reach 796 mmt, with slight reductions in forecasts attributed to decreased production in the EU and UK due to adverse weather. Meanwhile, Brazil increased its wheat production forecast by 1.5% YoY in 2024, expecting the second-highest output in history. Additionally, the USDA predicts a nearly 6% YoY increase in Ghana's wheat imports and marginal growth in total wheat consumption for 2024. Lastly, Australia anticipates expanding wheat and barley cultivation driven by favorable weather conditions and demand from China.

Global Wheat Production Forecast for 2024/25 Season

Global wheat production for the 2024/25 season is expected to reach 796 million metric tons (mmt), reflecting a slight decrease from the previous forecast. This projection represents a 1% year-on-year (YoY) increase compared to last year. The reduction is primarily due to expected decreases in wheat production in the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK), and Northern Ireland, where excess moisture has limited maize planting and localized dryness has affected cultivated areas. However, the United States (US) is forecasted to experience an increase in total wheat production despite a decrease in the cultivated area due to price-induced factors. This growth is expected due to anticipated increased yields and expanded harvested areas driven by favorable weather conditions. In contrast, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to impact the sector and production outlook. Conversely, Russia is projected to achieve above-average wheat production in 2024, supported by moderate weather conditions.

India Forecasts 6.25% YoY Decrease in 2024 Wheat Production

India's 2024 wheat production is expected to reach 105 mmt, marking a 6.25% YoY decrease from the government's estimate. This reduction comes as India, a major global wheat consumer and grower, aims to stabilize stocks and regulate local prices following export bans imposed in 2022. Despite the government's projection of 112 mmt for 2024, industry experts suggest that production in 2023 was around 10% lower than official estimates, despite reaching a record 112.74 mmt.

Brazil's 2024 Wheat Production Forecast Adjusted Amid Planting Expectations

Brazil's National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) increased its 2024 wheat production forecast in Apr-24 by 140 thousand metric tons (mt), or 1.5% YoY, due to a reduction in the expected planting area. The latest estimate puts Brazil's wheat production at 9.73 mmt for the year, up from the previous forecast of 9.59 mmt in Mar-24. This projected production would mark a 20.2% YoY increase from the 2023 production of 8.1 mmt, making it the second-highest in history, just below the 10.55 mmt recorded in 2022. Meanwhile, the average wheat yield forecasted in 2024 is at 2.94 mt per hectare (ha), representing a significant 26.1% YoY increase from the previous year's yield of 2.33 mt/ha. The sown area is projected at 3.31 million ha, up from the Mar-24's estimate of 3.23 million ha but down by 4.7% from the 3.473 million ha planted in 2023. Meanwhile, Brazil's wheat import and export estimates remain unchanged from the previous forecast, with imports forecasted at 5.5 mmt and exports at 2 mmt.

Russian Wheat Exports Surged by 11% YoY in 2023/24 Season

Wheat exports from Russia witnessed a notable 11% YoY increase from Jul-23 to Mar-24, reaching 40.85 mmt. Mar-24 alone saw exports of 4.6 mmt, with a similar volume anticipated for Apr-24. Moreover, grain exports have risen by 20% since the start of the 2023/24 season to 53.9 mmt. Forecasts project total wheat exports to be nearly 70 mmt by the end of the agricultural year, with wheat accounting for 52.5 to 53 mmt.

USDA Forecasts 6% YoY Increase in Wheat Imports for 2024

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects a nearly 6% YoY increase in Ghana's wheat imports to the US, estimating imports to reach 900 thousand mt compared to 2023's 850 thousand mt. This rise is due to importers aiming to bolster their stocks in anticipation of heightened demand fueled by an improved economy. Ghana imports over USD 230 million worth of wheat annually, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). Additionally, the USDA forecasts a marginal increase in total wheat consumption for 2024, reaching 850 thousand mt, reflecting a 1% rise compared to 2023's consumption of 840 thousand mt.

Australia Anticipates Expansion in Wheat and Barley Cultivation for 2024/25 Season

Australia is anticipated to increase the area devoted to wheat and barley cultivation due to favorable weather conditions in the 2024/25 season and rising demand from China following the removal of punitive tariffs. Wheat acreage is projected to increase by 1 to 3% YoY. This expansion in cultivated areas is expected to boost grain production in the 2024/25 season, with harvest estimates ranging from 26 to 29.9 mmt.

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