Weekly Product Updates

W20 2024: Sunflower Oil Weekly Update

Published May 24, 2024
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In W20 in the sunflower landscape, Stavropol Territory's sunflower oil exports to Israel rose to 1.8 thousand mt in the first four months of 2024. In addition, the sunflower harvest in Ukraine is projected to reach 14.7 mmt in MY 2024/25. However, sunflower oil production is forecasted to decrease by 170 thousand mt to 6.1mmt. Moreover, Kazakhstan’s sunflower cultivation is forecasted to reach 1.21 million ha in 2024, a significant increase from 67 thousand ha in 2023 due to high profitability, guaranteed demand from domestic oil plants, and the crop's resistance to drought. The USDA forecasts global sunflower oil production to reach 21.7 mmt in MY 2024/25. Lastly, sunflower oil prices in Russia, Ukraine, and Argentina increased by 1.19%, 2.35% and 2.33% WoW.

1.Weekly News

Russia

Stavropol Territory's Sunflower Oil Exports to Israel Surged in the First Four Months of 2024

Sunflower oil exports from the Stavropol Territory, Russia, to Israel, surged 5.3 times in the first four months of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, totaling 1.8 thousand metric tons (mt). The Nevinnomyssk Oil Extraction Plant, which operates under the national project "International Cooperation and Export," plays a crucial role in this expansion. Stavropol is currently exporting sunflower oil to 12 different countries.

Ukraine

Increased Sunflower Harvest and Decreased Oil Production in Ukraine

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Ukraine’s sunflower harvest is projected to increase by 200 thousand mt to 14.7 million metric tons (mmt) in the marketing year (MY) 2024/25. However, sunflower oil production in Ukraine is forecasted to decrease by 170 thousand mt to 6.1mmt this season. Despite the production decrease, the USDA anticipates that Ukraine will maintain the largest sunflower oil exporter in 2024.

Kazakhstan

Projected Expansion of Sunflower Cultivation in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is projected to expand its sunflower cultivation to 1.21 million hectares (ha) in 2024, a significant increase from 67 thousand ha in 2023. This growth is attributed to the crop’s high profitability, guaranteed demand from domestic oil plants, and resistance to drought. The planned expansion is particularly notable in the Kostanay, Abay, and Pavlodar regions.

Kazakhstan’s Sunflower Oil Production Increased by 31.4% YoY in Q1-2024

In Q1-2024, Kazakhstan's crude sunflower oil production increased by 31.4% year-on-year (YoY) to 136.5 thousand mt. Of the total output, 83.7% is used to supply the domestic market, while 16.3% is used for export. The top three exporting countries in 2023 were Uzbekistan, China, and Tajikistan.

United States

USDA Forecasts Global Sunflower Oil Production to Reach 21.7mmt in MY 2024/25

According to a USDA forecast, global vegetable oil production is projected to increase to 228.28 mmt in MY 2024/25. This represents a steady upward trend from 223.8 mmt in MY 2023/24, 218.33 mmt in MY 2022/23, and 208.55 mmt in MY 2021/22. However, sunflower oil production is anticipated to remain at 21.7 mmt in MY 2024/25. The USDA also advised that sunflower oil consumption is expected to drop to 20.4 mmt this season compared to 20.7 mmt in MY 2023/24.

2.Weekly Pricing

Weekly Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (USD/kg)

* All pricing is FOB * Variety: Crude sunflower oil

Yearly Change in Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (W20 2023 to W20 2024)

* All pricing is FOB * Variety: Crude sunflower oil* Blank spaces on the graph signify data unavailability stemming from factors like supply unavailability, missing data, and seasonality

Russia

The price of sunflower oil in Russia increased by 2.44% week-on-week (WoW), reaching USD 0.85 per kilogram (kg) in W20. This price surge is attributed to solid demand from China. In the first four months of 2024, Russia's sunflower oil exports to China have doubled YoY to 150 thousand mt. China's vegetable oil consumption is expected to increase further in Jun-24 and Jul-24, as the traditional peak season approaches, which will likely lead to a further price increase.

Ukraine

In W20, Ukraine's sunflower oil prices increased by 1.19% WoW to USD 0.85/kg due to an anticipated production decrease. According to the USDA, Ukraine's sunflower oil production is projected to decrease by 170 thousand mt to 6.1 mmt in the 2024/25 season. Despite the decrease in production, the USDA forecasts that Ukraine will maintain its leadership in sunflower oil exports in 2024.

Argentina

The sunflower oil price in Argentina increased to USD 0.86/kg, marking a 1.18% WoW rise in W20. This price increase is driven by strong export demand and anticipated production decrease in this country due to climate challenges.

3.Actionable Recommendations

Market Intelligence and Risk Management

Producers and exporters should prioritize market intelligence gathering and risk management strategies to anticipate and mitigate potential disruptions in supply and demand dynamics. This involves closely monitoring global market trends, geopolitical developments, weather patterns, and regulatory changes that may impact the sunflower oil industry. By staying informed and agile, companies can proactively adjust their production, marketing, and distribution strategies to navigate uncertainties and capitalize on emerging opportunities in the market.

Adoption of Sustainable Practices

Sunflower oil producers across all regions should prioritize adopting sustainable agricultural practices to minimize environmental impact and ensure long-term viability. This involves promoting advanced irrigation techniques, crop rotation, integrated pest management, and soil conservation measures. Certification schemes such as the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) can also help enhance market access and meet the growing consumer demand for ethically sourced and environmentally friendly products.

Diversification of Export Markets

Sunflower oil producers in Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan should actively pursue diversification of their export markets to reduce dependency on any single destination. This strategy involves expanding trade relationships with emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America and nurturing existing partnerships in traditional markets. By diversifying export destinations, producers can mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and fluctuations in demand from major importing countries.

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