Weekly Product Updates

W20 2024: Olive Oil Weekly Update

Published May 24, 2024
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In W20 in the olive oil landscape, Spain’s olive oil prices rose significantly in the POOLred System of the Olive Grove Foundation and Oleoestepa. However, given the recent rainfall and favorable weather conditions, Spain’s harvest is anticipated to increase by 28% YoY in the 2023/24 season. Consequently, the market anticipates a price decline at the origin. In addition, the Cibus trade fair in Parma, Italy, featured a wide variety of olive oil types, highlighting biodiversity, flavor, and environmental sustainability. Lastly, olive oil prices in Portugal, Greece, and Tunisia rose in W20, while the prices in Italy remain unchanged.

1.Weekly News

Spain

Increased Palm Oil Prices in Spain

In the POOLred System of the Olive Grove Foundation, extra virgin olive oilprices rose by 0.56% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 8,593 (EUR 7,950) per metric ton (mt) in W20. Virgin olive oil prices reached USD 8,114/mt (EUR 7,507/mt), marking a weekly increase of 3.24%, while lampante olive oil base one was priced at USD 7,692/mt (EUR 7,166/mt), up by 2.65% WoW. Trading volume amounted to 2,131 mt, down from 5,742 mt in the previous season.

Additionally, Oleoestepa also reported robust activity in the market, with a prevailing trend of price hikes in W20. The price of extra virgin olive oil remained steady at USD 8,647/mt (EUR 8,000/mt). Meanwhile, virgin olive oil was trading at USD 8,107/mt (EUR 7,500/mt), marking an increase of USD 109/mt (EUR 100/mt) compared to the previous week. Lampante reached USD 7,836/mt (EUR 7,250/mt), showing an increase of USD 270 (EUR 250) WoW. When compared to the previous year, prices have surged by over 31% year-on-year (YoY) for extra virgin, 27% YoY for virgin, and 27.2% YoY for lampante olive oils.

The recent rainfall and favorable weather conditions have improved the state of the olive groves, leading to an anticipated better harvest. As a result, the market expects a decrease in prices at the origin. However, the exact timing of this shift in trend remains uncertain.

Olive Oil Harvest in Spain Exceeds Forecasts for 2023/24 Season

The olive oil harvest in Spain is expected to exceed forecasts by 11%, totaling 850.16 thousand mt in the 2023/24 season. This represents a significant 28% YoY increase from the previous season, which marked the lowest production since 2012/13. Despite this slight improvement, production still falls below the average campaign size of 1.1 to 1.3 million metric tons (mmt). As a result, prices remain at historic highs due to reduced production levels. Despite recent declines, the average price of olive oil in the last week was USD 8.23 (EUR 7.61) per kilogram (kg), showing a 5.5% decrease from mid-March 2024.

Italy

Explore Olive Oil Diversity at the Cibus Trade Fair in Parma

The Cibus trade fair in Parma, Italy, attracted over 20 thousand olive-growing enterprises from the country’s Mediterranean Sea-facing regions. It showcased a wide variety of olive oil types. It focused on biodiversity and flavor, with lesser-known varieties receiving high praise. The event highlighted the importance of environmental sustainability, with many companies featuring organic products. Some companies are adopting multiple certifications, such as organic and PGI, to offer extra guarantees and ensure quality throughout the production process, from the field to the final bottle.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

* All pricing is wholesale* Varieties: All pricing is for extra virgin olive oil

Yearly Change in Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (W20 2023 to W20 2024)

* All pricing is wholesale * Varieties: All pricing is for extra virgin olive oil* Blank spaces on the graph signify data unavailability stemming from factors like missing data, supply unavailability, or seasonality

Spain

Spain's olive oil prices increased to USD 5.59/kg, a 1.42% WoW, and a 35.49% YoY rise from USD 6.34/kg. Spain has faced consecutive years of drought in 2022 and 2023. Prices initially surged due to a scarcity of sunflower oil caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year, but inflation, increased fertilizer costs, and prolonged drought have further elevated prices. The Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAPA) reported a harvest of 850.15 mt at the end of Apr-24, marking an 11% increase over initial estimates and a 28% improvement over the previous campaign. This upturn, attributed to improved weather conditions, indicates a potential recovery in production. Consequently, prices are forecasted to ease from current highs, although the exact timeline for this reduction's impact at retail remains uncertain.

Italy

The olive oil prices in Italy remain unchanged at USD10.31/kg in W20. However, based on a yearly comparison, the prices increased significantly by 37.1% YoY compared to USD 7.53/kg. The price surge can be attributed to concerns about a supply shortage due to climate change in the primary producers, including Spain, Italy, and Greece. In addition, the overall olive oil availability in the European Union (EU) is expected to decrease by 5% YoY in this season due to lower starting stocks and reduced demand, leading to a 28% decline compared to the five-year average.

Portugal

Portugal's olive oil price experienced a slight increase of 0.09% WoW to reach USD 11.21/kg in W20. However, in a yearly comparison, prices surged by an impressive 58.11% YoY from USD 7.09/kg. Despite supply challenges in Spain, Portugal anticipates a significant 25% YoY increase in olive oil production to 157.6 thousand mt in the 2023/24 season, marking the second-highest production volume in the country's history. Despite this positive production outlook, adverse weather conditions, including heavy rain and frost, have posed significant challenges for producers.

Greece

In W20, the price of olive oil in Greece increased slightly by 0.1% to USD 9.62/kg compared to the previous week. However, in a yearly comparison, prices surged by 50.08% to USD 6.41/kg. Olive oil accounts for more than 50% of Greece's exports. The limited production of olive oil during the last olive growing season and maintaining small stocks to achieve higher prices have made the product available on shelves at significantly elevated prices, potentially leading to shortages.

Tunisia

In W20, Tunisia saw a notable 5.58% WoW increase in olive oil prices, rising to USD 8.7/kg from USD 8.24/kg in W19. Robust export prices and global supply concerns underpin this uptick. In Q1-2024, the average export price of olive oil surged by an impressive 73.7% YoY, reflecting the overall upward trend in global prices.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Focus on Sustainability

Emphasizing environmental sustainability in olive oil production processes can resonate well with environmentally conscious consumers. Producers can consider obtaining organic certifications and adopting sustainable practices throughout the production chain, from cultivation to packaging.

Adaptation to Supply Challenges

Given the potential supply challenges due to adverse weather conditions and production fluctuations, stakeholders should be prepared to adapt their strategies accordingly. This may involve diversifying sourcing channels, managing inventory levels effectively, and exploring alternative markets.

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