Weekly Product Updates

W40: Avocado Update

Fresh Avocado
Published Oct 13, 2023

In W40 in the avocado landscape, in Michoacán, Mexico, the main avocado season is set to start in the upcoming weeks. However, in the United States (US) market, the cost of available avocados in the field remains high, and the limited supply fails to meet the demand, resulting in upward price pressure. The expected harvest volume for the next week is predicted to remain stable. During W40, as quoted in the Free on Board (FOB) McAllen market, avocado prices witnessed significant increases. The prices for 25-pound (lb) boxes in different sizes stood as follows, for 32s and 36s soared from USD 59 to USD 61, indicating a notable surge. The price for 40s increased from USD 43 to USD 45. Larger sizes, including 48s, 60s, 70s, and 84s, have also experienced price hikes. Specifically, 48s rose from USD 33 to USD 35, 60s from USD 27 to USD 29, 70s from USD 21 to USD 23, and 84s from USD 18 to USD 20.

Jalisco, Mexico, has experienced a significant surge in avocado exports to various countries, including the US, Canada, Japan, the European Union (EU), and China, starting in Jul-22. Exports are expected to increase by 10% in 2023 compared to the previous year, with the US being the primary market. Jalisco is the second-largest avocado producer in Mexico, contributing 12% of the country's total production, valued at USD 540.22 thousand (MXN 9.70 million). However, overproduction has led to price fluctuations in the avocado market.

In the Rotterdam wholesale market, prices for Hass avocados from Kenya and Colombia adjusted in response to market demand during W40. Kenyan Hass avocados (18>24, 4-kilogram box) increased from USD 10.60 (EUR 10) to USD 12.19 (EUR 11.5) per 4-kg box, and (26/28/30, 10-kg box) surged from USD 14.84 (EUR 14) to USD 21.20 (EUR 20) per 10-kg box, marking a 50% increase week-on-week (WoW). Similarly, Colombian Hass avocados (18>24, 4-kg box) increased from USD 12.19 (EUR 11.5) to USD 13.25 (EUR 12.5) per 4-kg box, while (26/28, 10-kg box) remained steady at USD 26.50/10 kg (EUR 25/10 kg). The market is forecasted to remain robust until W47, with anticipated increased supply from Colombia and Chile. Despite the arrival of new seasons, an oversupply in the market is not expected.

Lastly, the Moroccan avocado season has begun with small quantities available in local markets and some initial export shipments of green-skin avocados. The main export campaign featuring Hass avocados is forecasted to start in mid-November. Favorable weather conditions, increased yields, and expanded cultivation areas have led to a significant volume increase of at least 40%, setting a national record with over 60 thousand tons of avocados expected. Quality is reported to be excellent, with good-sized fruit, particularly in the 12-20 range. Morocco's avocado sector has experienced growth, with export volumes quadrupling in the past six years, making it the ninth-largest global exporter last season, with 40 thousand metric tons (mt) exported.

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