1. Weekly News

Brazil

Rio Grande do Sul Nears 50% Completion of 2024/25 Rice Planting

In W43, according to the Rice Institute of Rio Grande do Sul (IRGA), rice planting in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, reached nearly 50% of the targeted area for the 2024/25 season, with 456,879 hectares (ha) of the planned 948,356 ha now sown. This progress comes despite earlier challenges, including flooding in the Central region last May-24. Recent dry weather across much of the state has allowed farmers to progress steadily, with three out of six areas surpassing the 50% planting mark. The Fronteira Oeste (FO) region is closest to completing its sowing activities, with 67.21% of the anticipated 281,542 ha planted. The Inner Coastal Plain follows, reaching 82,148 ha, 57.12% of its planned 143,825 ha.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh to Import 500 Thousand MT of Rice Following Flooding

Floods in Bangladesh, the world's fourth-largest rice producer, have led to the loss of approximately 1.1 million metric tons (mmt) of rice still in the fields, according to the country's agriculture ministry. Heavy monsoon rains triggered two major flood waves in Aug-24 and Oct-24, causing significant damage to rice crops. In response to these losses and rising food prices, the Bangladeshi government has announced plans to import 500 thousand metric tons (mt) of rice and will likely permit private sector imports soon. According to a federation official, this proactive step aims to stabilize the rice supply and curb inflation in staple food prices.

Indonesia

Indonesia Plans 3 Million Ha Expansion in Rice Fields to Bolster Food Security

According to the Deputy Minister of Agriculture, Indonesian authorities plan to expand rice fields by 3 million ha to strengthen food security. This initiative addresses global food crisis risks and ensures stability in our agricultural sector. With Indonesia's population projected to reach 330 million by 2050, food demand is expected to increase further, intensifying the need for agricultural expansion. However, the Deputy Minister pointed out that agricultural land area is shrinking as large swathes are converted for industrial and residential development. In 2023, the Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture reported a rice production of 53.9 mmt, underscoring the country's standing as a significant global agricultural producer.

Vietnam

Vietnam Poised for Record 8.6 MMT Rice Exports in 2024

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Vietnam could export a record 8.6 mmt of rice in 2024, reflecting its robust role in the global rice market. Despite this, Vietnam ranks as the world’s third-largest rice importer, expected to bring in 2.9 mmt, following Indonesia and the Philippines. Statistics from Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and the General Department of Customs reveal that in the first nine months of 2024, Vietnam’s rice imports reached nearly USD 1 billion, marking a 57.3% increase year-on-year (YoY) and surpassing total import values for 2023. Processing sector representatives explain that a shift in Vietnamese rice farming practices drives this import trend.. Farmers increasingly focus on cultivating high-quality rice varieties for export, which fetch premium prices. The export price for this high-grade rice has averaged USD 624/mt in the first nine months of 2024, a 13% YoY rise, reflecting strong global demand for Vietnamese rice varieties.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W43 2023 to W43 2024)

India

In W43, wholesale rice prices in India fell by 1.54% week-on-week (WoW) and 3.03% month-on-month (MoM) to USD 0.64 per kilogram (kg). This decline follows the Indian government's decision to resume exports of non-basmati white rice, driven by increased production that offers more affordable options for buyers across Asia and Africa. Additionally, the government lowered the export duty on parboiled rice to 10%, facilitated by the arrival of a new crop and higher stock levels in state warehouses. Despite the recent weekly decrease, rice prices remain 8.47% higher YoY, primarily due to ongoing food inflation in India, which has averaged around 8% YoY since Nov-23.

Thailand

In W43, wholesale prices for Thai rice rose 8.51% WoW to USD 0.51/kg, driven by global shortages and resulting in high demand for Thai rice. However, production in the first half of the year contracted by 8.1% due to the effects of El Niño, hot weather, and reduced rainfall. Despite the weekly increase, prices decreased by 1.92% MoM and 12.07% YoY, marking the lowest price for Thai rice in over a year. This decline was influenced by bidders needing to lower their previously high prices in a recent auction held by Indonesia, with Bangkok traders noting that Thai prices are still too high compared to competitors. Additionally, flash floods have adversely affected short-term harvest yields, raising speculation about potential price improvements in the future.

Vietnam

In W43, wholesale prices for Vietnamese regular rice remained unchanged at USD 0.60/kg but decreased by 3.23% MoM and 4.76% YoY. A trader based in Ho Chi Minh City noted that trading activity remains slow amid weak demand, with concerns that ongoing floods in Northern Vietnam could impact rice production. However, most export rice is cultivated in the Mekong Delta in the south, mitigating some risks. Despite the current price decline, Vietnam's rice exports are projected to achieve a record turnover of approximately USD 5 billion in 2024, driven by strong demand from traditional markets such as Indonesia and the Philippines. Indonesia plans to import 450 thousand mt of rice due to reduced domestic output, while the Philippines is also looking to increase its rice imports next year.

United States

The wholesale price of milled white long rice in Arkansas, United States (US), reached USD 0.78/kg in W43, reflecting a decline of 1.27% both MoM and YoY. According to the USDA, the rice harvest in Arkansas is progressing smoothly, with no significant weather disruptions or adverse crop conditions reported. By the end of Sep-24, over 25% of the state's rice crop had been harvested, with 76% rated as good or excellent. Early mill yield reports expected in the coming weeks will provide valuable insights into this year's crop performance.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Strengthen Trade Agreements and Market Access

The Philippines and Indonesia should strengthen trade agreements that facilitate rice exports and imports, emphasizing reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers. By fostering more open trade relationships, these nations can improve market access for rice exporters while ensuring a stable supply for import-dependent countries. This is particularly important for the Philippines, which is seeking to increase its rice imports next year, and Indonesia, which plans to import rice due to reduced domestic output. Strengthening these agreements can help stabilize rice prices, preventing spikes from supply chain disruptions or unexpected demand surges. Ultimately, enhanced trade collaboration can contribute to a more balanced global rice market, promoting food security and supporting farmers' livelihoods across different regions.

Enhance Irrigation Infrastructure and Water Management

Bangladesh and Brazil should prioritize enhancing irrigation infrastructure and effective water management systems, especially as these regions face increasing risks from flooding and drought. Farmers can secure a reliable water supply during critical growth periods by adopting advanced irrigation technologies like drip and sprinkler systems, allowing for consistent crop production and better yields despite adverse weather conditions. In Bangladesh, where heavy monsoon rains have caused significant crop damage, effective water management can minimize losses and optimize production. Similarly, investing in improved irrigation practices during rice planting in Brazil can enhance water use efficiency and ensure that production targets are met amidst changing weather patterns. Ultimately, these enhancements will lead to more sustainable agricultural practices and improved food security, benefiting farmers and the broader rice market in these countries.

Diversify Rice Varieties in India and Vietnam

India and Vietnam should diversify their rice cultivation by incorporating high-quality and drought-resistant rice varieties. This approach improves yields and aligns with the growing global demand for premium rice products. By providing farmers access to a broader range of seeds and training on best practices, they can better adapt to climate variability and market preferences. Such diversification can stabilize farmer incomes amid price fluctuations, allowing them to thrive even during challenging economic conditions. Moreover, promoting high-value varieties can enhance export opportunities, particularly in markets prioritizing quality over quantity, which is essential for countries like Vietnam, known for its premium rice exports.

Sources: Kvedomost, Planetaarroz, Vov