1. Weekly News

Global

Safeguarding Olive Oil Quality Amid Rising Prices and Competition

Olive oil prices have risen globally due to significant production declines of around 40% in 2022/23 and 25% in 2023/24, driven by adverse climate conditions. This price increase raises concerns about the risk of fraud, as cheaper alternatives may tempt consumers and producers. To enhance quality control in the olive oil industry, there is a call for stricter penalties for fraud, enhanced consumer education, and uniform European Union (EU) regulations to prevent mixing olive oil with other oils. Additionally, non-refillable containers in hospitality establishments are encouraged to ensure product authenticity. The growing competition from North Africa and the Middle East, where lower production costs exist, poses a challenge to EU producers. For instance, Tunisia has been exporting over 56 thousand tons of olive oil to the EU annually since 1998, duty-free. This trend and the increase in imports from non-EU countries emphasize the need for trade agreements that prioritize EU olive oil production standards and uphold its quality.

Brazil

COI Delegation Visits Brazil to Explore Olive Oil Industry Potential

A delegation from the International Olive Council (COI) visited Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul to assess the region's olive oil industry potential. Impressed by the high-quality oils produced, COI officials discussed Brazil's interest in joining the organization. With increasing olive oil production and favorable land for olive cultivation, Brazil aims to connect with the global market. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture is working on regulations to ensure quality while addressing sector challenges, emphasizing the importance of international partnerships for growth.

Portugal

Portugal Set for Second-Highest Olive Oil Production in 2024/25

The Association of Olive Growers and Mills of Portugal (Olivum) predicts that Portugal's olive oil production for the 2024/25 season could reach up to 180 thousand tons, making it the second-largest production in history. This marks a 10% increase from the previous year's 150 thousand tons. The growth is attributed to new olive groves, stable climate conditions, and sustainable practices adopted by producers. These advancements solidify Portugal's position as a significant global olive oil market player.

Spain

Rain Delays Olive Harvest, Heightening Olive Oil Price Volatility

Heavy rains in Spain have disrupted the olive milling harvest, amplifying price instability in an already constrained olive oil market. In the 2024/25 season, they started with just 186.3 thousand tons in initial stocks, the lowest since 2015. Any prolonged delays could lead to shortages, especially in the packaging industry, which currently holds only a 30-day supply, potentially driving prices up. Spain's olive oil imports in the 2023/24 season reached a record 246.2 thousand tons to offset lower domestic production. Exports dropped from 1.07 million tons in 2021/22 to 752.25 thousand tons in 2023/24, a 30% decline driven by high prices and limited supply. Domestic consumption has also shifted, from 598.4 thousand tons in 2021/22 down to 367.4 thousand tons in 2022/23, before rebounding to 409.9 thousand tons in 2023/24, though still below the 500 thousand tons target. For the 2024/25 harvest, Spain's olive milling production is projected at 1.29 million tons, an improvement over the previous season's 854 thousand tons, while other Mediterranean producers are expected to raise total regional production to approximately 3.04 million tons. However, significant price volatility remains likely as weather conditions impact production and market dynamics.

Olive Harvest in Seville Threatened by Heavy Rain

Heavy rains in Seville have put the 2024 olive harvest at risk, with forecasts predicting a significant decline in yield. The harvest, critical for Spain's olive oil production, faces challenges amid lower olive stocks and rising prices. While output in Andalusia is expected to reach 1.29 million tons, the impact of rain may affect oil quality and availability. Domestic consumption of olive oil has decreased by 3%, while cheaper oils like sunflower oil are gaining market share.

Spanish Olive Oil Exports to Brazil Surge Due to High Prices

Spanish olive oil exports to Brazil have seen strong growth in 2024, with an 18% increase in volume and an 82% rise in value, reaching USD 117.88 million (EUR 109 million) in the first nine months. Spain has strengthened its market share in Brazil, supplying 11,284 tons of 62,127-ton olive oil imports. A recent promotional campaign emphasizing Spanish olive oil's quality has helped boost demand, with Spain now outpacing Portugal's slower growth. Spain aims to consolidate long-term leadership in this high-potential market.

Sustaining Spain’s Olive Oil Leadership Through Technological Innovation

Spain's position as the world's leading olive oil producer is at risk unless the sector embraces advanced technologies and sustainable practices, as emphasized at the Olive Oil World Congress (OOWC) in Jaén. Experts highlighted the need for modernization to meet global demand and adapt to climate challenges, focusing on precision agriculture, regenerative farming, and energy recovery from by-products. However, high costs and generational shifts present challenges, and incorporating technology is essential for sustaining Spain's competitive edge and drawing new talent to the industry. The event concluded with a call for industry-wide commitment to this technological and environmental transformation.

Turkey

Turkey Set for Record Olive Oil and Table Olive Harvests in 2024/25

Following a challenging production year, Turkey is poised to achieve historic olive oil production in the 2024/25 season, with an expected yield of 475 thousand tons, plus 150 thousand tons of carryover stocks. The country is also set for record table olive production, estimated at around 750 thousand tons. Turkey's Anatolia region, with its ideal climate for olive cultivation, remains largely unaffected by global climate shifts. Over the past 15 years, the number of olive trees has doubled to 200 million, supported by advanced irrigation systems and the adoption of local varieties, alongside a new generation of olive growers enhancing production quality.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (W44 2023 to W44 2024)

Spain

Olive oil prices in Spain have decreased significantly, dropping to USD 7.64 per kilogram (kg) in W44, marking a week-on-week (WoW) decline of 2.18% and a month-on-month (MoM) decline of 5.80%. The year-on-year (YoY) decrease is 11.78%, compared to USD 8.66 in W44 2023. This price drop comes despite adverse weather conditions, including heavy rains that caused a 25% production decline in 2023/24. The unfavorable weather conditions have kept prices very high over the past months, so current prices are starting to decline as production is projected to rise to 1.29 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Despite the projected increasing supply, stocks are still tight, and supply might still be short compared to demand, which might keep prices high in the upcoming months.

Italy

Olive oil prices in Italy have increased significantly, reaching USD 10.44/kg in W44. This represents a WoW rise of 0.68%, a MoM increase of 3.16%, and a YoY surge of 17.97%. The price hikes are primarily driven by low supply in the market, as adverse climate conditions have caused significant global production declines of around 25% in 2023/24. These production shortages have pushed prices higher globally, including in Italy, as demand continues to outpace supply. Despite expectations of some recovery in production, particularly with the 2024/25 harvest, the market remains tight, contributing to ongoing price volatility.

Tunisia

Olive oil prices in Tunisia have remained stable at USD 7.81/kg in W44, showing no change WoW after a previous WoW drop of 4.63% in W43. However, prices have decreased by 5.22% MoM compared to USD 8.24 in W41. The monthly decline is attributed to improved harvest forecasts globally for the upcoming season, which are expected to ease supply constraints. As supply constraints ease, Tunisian and global prices will reduce slightly. Despite this, prices are anticipated to remain volatile in the coming months due to ongoing market fluctuations and external factors such as weather conditions and demand dynamics.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Adopting Technology and Sustainability Practices

All olive oil-producing countries should prioritize adopting advanced technologies and sustainable practices to enhance production efficiency and reduce environmental impact. This includes implementing precision agriculture to optimize resource use, investing in energy recovery from by-products to lower operational costs, and adopting regenerative farming practices to improve soil health and biodiversity. By embracing these innovations, producers can mitigate climate risks, reduce waste, and enhance competitiveness in a global market increasingly focused on sustainability, ensuring that olive oil production remains cost-effective and environmentally responsible.

Implement Water-Saving Technologies

To mitigate the growing risks of droughts and water scarcity, olive oil producers should adopt water-saving technologies such as drip irrigation and moisture sensors, particularly in regions like Spain and Italy, where water availability is increasingly limited. Drip irrigation delivers water directly to the roots, reducing waste and promoting healthier crops. At the same time, moisture sensors allow farmers to precisely monitor soil moisture levels, optimizing irrigation schedules and preventing overuse of water. By improving water efficiency, these technologies can help safeguard olive oil production, lower operational costs, and ensure long-term sustainability in the face of climate-related challenges.

Sources: Tridge, Agro Digital, Agro Información, Agro News GR, Agro Popular, Corriere del Mezzogiorno, Cuaderno Agrario, Food Mate, Oleo Revista, Oli Merca, Noticias Agricolas, Portal do Agronegocio, Sondakika, Vida Rural