1. Weekly News

Brazil

São Paulo Projects Record 2024/25 Peanut Harvest with 40.6% Productivity Surge

The Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of the State of São Paulo (Faesp) projects a record peanut production for the 2024/25 season, with output reaching 832,300 metric tons (mt), up 40.6% from the previous harvest. Although the cultivation area remains stable, peanut productivity is forecasted to increase by 40.6%, reaching 3,900 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha).

United States

Severe Weather and Market Conditions Impact 2024/25 US Peanut Season

The 2024/25 United States (US) peanut season has been marked by severe weather, including Hurricanes Debby and Helene, unpredictable spring rains, and drought conditions. Hurricane Debby caused flooding in Northeast Florida, Southeast Georgia, and South Carolina, while Hurricane Helene brought damaging winds and rain to Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina, delaying harvests and damaging infrastructure. Despite a 14% production increase to 3.35 million metric tons (mmt), the weather has slowed harvests, particularly in Georgia and Florida. Contract prices remain low amid a larger supply, with ending stocks estimated at 811 thousand mt, indicating a tight supply that could drive prices up next year.

Export markets' volume rose 17.5% year-on-year (YoY) to 585,789 mt, compared to the previous 498,330 mt in 2023. In addition, Congress is considering additional support measures for farmers due to market uncertainty.

Arkansas Peanut Farmers Leverage Hurricane Remnants for Improved Harvest Efficiency

Despite not being directly hit by recent hurricanes, Arkansas peanut farmers benefited from the rain and wind remnants of Hurricane Francine in mid-Sep-24. In Northeastern Arkansas, sandy soils allowed rain to drain without harming peanuts in the ground. In southern regions, some farmers used the rain to clean freshly dug peanuts, easing the threshing process. As of W43, 81% of Arkansas's 40 thousand peanut acres had been dug, with 45% harvested, aligning with the state's five-year average. Farmers in Northeastern counties briefly paused their harvest to avoid frost damage, while growers in Marianna moved quickly to harvest during favorable weather.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Peanut Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Peanut Pricing Important Exporters (W44 2023 to W44 2024)

India

India's peanut prices remained stable at USD 0.64/kg in W44, marking an 18.99% YoY decrease from USD 0.79/kg. As market trends indicate, the price stability contrasts with higher expected outputs for peanuts Kharif crops. While production estimates have not been officially released, agricultural market signals suggest a potential increase in peanut production compared to the previous year's 8.66 mmt. Despite this, prices have not significantly risen, possibly due to overall market conditions and the higher availability of competing crops.

United States

US peanut prices rose to USD 0.59/kg in W44, a 1.72% rise in both week-on-week (WoW) and month-on-month (MoM). This increase was driven by challenging weather conditions impacting the 2024/25 peanut season. Hurricanes Debby and Helene caused significant delays in harvesting and infrastructure damage in key production areas like Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina. Although production increased by 14%, weather disruptions have slowed harvests, particularly in Georgia and Florida, while maintaining pressure on prices. The market also shows strong export demand, with a 17.5% YoY increase in peanut export volume. This demand, combined with tight ending stock estimates at 811,000 mt, suggests that prices could continue to rise in 2025.

Brazil

Brazil's peanut prices decreased to USD 3.16/kg in W44, reflecting a 0.63% WoW drop. However, prices remain 9.34% higher than the previous year's USD 2.89/kg. Despite this price decline, Brazil is set to achieve a record peanut production in the 2024/25 season, with output expected to reach 832,300 mt, a 40.6% increase from the previous harvest. This growth is driven by improved productivity, projected to reach 3,900 kg/ha, although the cultivation area remains stable.

4. Actionable Recommendations

Adapt to Weather-Related Harvest Delays

In light of the significant weather disruptions impacting peanut harvests in the US, particularly in Florida and Georgia, stakeholders should prepare contingency plans for harvest delays. This includes investing in infrastructure improvements to withstand severe weather events and incorporating flexible harvesting schedules to avoid crop losses. Peanut producers should also explore the use of technology, such as weather forecasting tools and automated harvesting equipment, to minimize harvest delays and enhance efficiency during adverse weather conditions. These measures will help ensure timely production and reduce risks associated with unpredictable climate conditions.

Diversify Export Markets and Sourcing Strategies

With a projected record of peanut production in Brazil and rising exports from the US, stakeholders should consider diversifying both sourcing and export markets to capitalize on growing global demand. Expanding into emerging markets and securing contracts with diverse international buyers can reduce dependency on traditional markets and ensure a steady demand for peanut products. By fostering relationships with new buyers and suppliers in regions like Asia and Europe, companies can mitigate risks related to market fluctuations and improve long-term profitability.

Leverage Price Trends for Strategic Procurement

Given the stable prices in India and the decline in Brazil’s peanut prices, businesses can take advantage of favorable pricing in key production regions by adjusting procurement strategies. As seen in the US, importers and manufacturers should lock in contracts at current price levels to hedge against potential price increases due to tight global supplies. Additionally, stakeholders should assess the profitability of using peanuts from different regions, considering local supply availability, transportation costs, and price stability to optimize their sourcing strategies and maintain cost efficiency.

Sources: Tridge, Portal Do Agronegócio, Talk Business, Peanut Grower