1. Weekly News

Australia

Australian Avocado Industry Sees Growth in Production and Exports

Australia’s avocado production has surged by 30% year-on-year (YoY) in the 2023/24 season, reaching 150.9 thousand metric tons (mt), up from 115.3 thousand mt in 2022/23. This growth has translated into a 13% increase in the gross value of production, now at USD 649 million, and a 63% YoY rise in export value to USD 96.1 million. Although Australia is a relatively small player in the global avocado market, there are ongoing efforts to increase local and international demand. Moreover, Western Australia produced over 65 thousand mt, accounting for 44% of the national volume. Exports have increased by 600% over the past three years, reaching 21.9 thousand mt in 2023/24, representing 14.56% of total production. Avocados Australia, the industry body for avocado growers, aims to expand exports and domestic consumption, which grew by 25% to 4.94 kilograms (kg) per person in the 2023/24 season.

Australia Signs Deal to Expand Avocado Exports to China

The Australian avocado industry has taken a significant step toward entering the Chinese market with a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Avocados Australia and the China Chamber of Commerce for Import & Export of Foodstuffs. The agreement signed on November 6, 2024, at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai, aims to boost cooperation and technology exchange between the two countries. It follows years of efforts to tap into China’s growing health-conscious consumer base. With China as Australia’s largest trading partner and avocado imports into China reaching 66 thousand tons in 2023, the deal is expected to open new opportunities for Australian avocados, mirroring the success of Australian apples in the market. This move aligns with the growing trade relations between the two nations, with hopes for further agreements in the future.

Colombia

Colombia's Growing Avocado Exports to the US

Colombia's avocado industry is experiencing rapid growth, with shipments to the United States (US) projected to reach 30 million pounds (lbs) in Q4-24. By the end of 2024, total avocado exports are expected to hit 95 million lbs, a significant increase from 2023. Since gaining approval from the Animal & Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) in 2017, Colombian Hass avocado exports have surged, driven by new orchards reaching total production and strategic supply reallocations to meet rising US demand. With approximately 29 thousand acres of certified orchards and over 3.5 thousand growers, Colombia is positioning itself as a primary supplier to the US market. The avocado now ranks Colombia's third largest export fruit, supporting nearly 240 thousand jobs. The industry's success is due to Colombia's favorable climate, fertile lands, and growing infrastructure, including improved ports for faster exports.

Kenya

Kenyan Avocado Exporters Struggling with Geopolitical Tensions and Shipping Delays

Kenyan avocado exporters, recovering from recent droughts, are now dealing with the effects of the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has severely disrupted shipping routes. The closure of the Suez Canal and challenges in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden have forced exporters to rely on longer, more expensive alternative routes, with transit times extending up to 50 days, impacting fruit quality. Though faster, airfreight is not a viable option due to its high costs. This disadvantages Kenya compared to competitors like Peru, which benefits from shorter, more efficient shipping routes. Alongside these shipping challenges, the industry faces growing competition from emerging markets like China and India. The industry calls for a national dialogue to discuss solutions to address these issues and protect Kenya’s position in the global avocado market.

Morocco

Moroccan Hass Avocado Season Sees Record Volumes and Lower Prices

The 2024 Moroccan Hass avocado season, which began on October 28, is experiencing record production volumes, leading to lower prices than the previous season. While the high supply has initially raised concerns for growers and exporters, it is viewed as a positive development for the industry's long-term stability. The introduction of a fixed campaign start date and the careful monitoring of dry matter content has helped ensure quality control with no complaints. Although prices are lower due to the increased supply, they are expected to stabilize as production grows. Morocco's proximity to European markets offers a competitive edge in transport costs and demand. However, a dip in demand is anticipated towards the end of 2024, followed by a price increase in early Jan-25.

United States

US Approves Fresh Hass Avocado Exports from Guatemala

The US government has officially approved the export of fresh Hass avocados from Guatemala, marking a significant milestone for the latter's avocado industry. Effective November 8, 2024, the rule follows collaborative efforts by the Guatemalan Avocado Producers Association (ANAGUACATE) and the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) APHIS. APHIS concluded that the risk of plant pests can be mitigated through a Systems Approach, which includes stringent controls on production and packing. This approval is expected to create new opportunities for Guatemalan avocado producers, particularly small and medium-scale growers, boosting the country's economic growth and job creation, especially in migration-prone regions.

Peru

Peru’s Avocado Production to Surge in 2024/25 Season Despite Logistical Challenges

Peru's avocado production, particularly of the Hass variety, continues to grow annually, with both coastal and mountain regions contributing to the increase. Despite the conclusion of the primary 2024 season, production volumes are expected to rise in the coming months, particularly in areas such as Ancash, Ayacucho, and Arequipa. While the 2023/24 campaign saw smaller fruit sizes and limited volume, the upcoming season promises larger fruit sizes and increased output. Demand for Peruvian avocados is robust, particularly in Europe, the US, and Asia, although logistics challenges, such as port congestion and rising freight costs, remain ongoing concerns. In 2024, the country exported 311.6 thousand tons to Europe, 66.1 thousand tons to the US, and 34.3 thousand tons to China. The avocado industry in Peru faces a promising future, with expected 50% higher fruit volumes for the 2024/25 season, despite ongoing logistical issues.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Avocado Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Avocado Pricing Important Exporters (W45 2023 to W45 2024)

Mexico

Avocado prices in Mexico increased by 2.47% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 2.90/kg in W45, with a 10.69% YoY rise due to sustained strong demand for certified avocados, which continue to fetch premium pricing. Additionally, strong export activity, especially from Michoacán, has supported the upward trend. However, month-on-month (MoM) prices declined by 12.91% due to ongoing seasonal oversupply, as favorable growing conditions have led to peak production volumes, resulting in temporary market corrections despite high demand.

Peru

In Peru, avocado prices declined by 0.89% WoW to USD 1.11/kg in W45, with a significant decrease of 36.21% YoY due to increased competition from Mexican avocados in primary markets like the US and a drop in export volumes by 9% YoY. Moreover, concerns over cadmium levels and lingering logistical issues, such as port congestion, have pressured prices. However, MoM prices increased by 7.77% due to improved harvest timing, strong demand from Europe, and better fruit quality and yield optimization as the industry prepares for a promising 2024/25 season.

Spain

Spain's avocado prices dropped by 13.39% WoW to USD 1.94/kg in W45, with a 41.39% MoM and 25.38% YoY decline due to persistent market oversupply from early-season green-skinned varieties, like Zutano, saturating the domestic market. Additionally, heightened competition from imported avocados and ongoing water shortages have negatively impacted the quality of local harvests, further driving prices down. The early seasonal influx combined with external supply pressures has led to sharp declines, exacerbating the pricing downturn in W45.

Chile

In W45, Chile's avocado prices increased by 4.22% WoW to USD 3.46/kg, with a 3.9% YoY increase driven by steady export demand and limited availability from regional suppliers. However, there is an 11.73% MoM decrease due to intensified competition from Colombian avocados in European markets, which has pressured prices and forced Chilean exporters to adopt more aggressive pricing strategies. Additionally, recent stabilization in export volumes following peak pricing in previous weeks has contributed to the MoM decline.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Optimize Shipping Routes and Explore Alternative Markets

Kenyan avocado exporters should optimize shipping logistics by collaborating with shipping companies to secure faster, cost-effective routes, potentially exploring alternative sea routes or regional ports to reduce transit delays and minimize fruit quality degradation. Additionally, exporters should actively seek partnerships with emerging markets like China and India, leveraging the growing demand for avocados in these regions to offset the impact of Middle East shipping disruptions. Kenya can maintain a competitive edge despite the challenges by diversifying market access and improving logistical efficiency.

Address Logistical Challenges to Support Growing Avocado Exports

Peruvian avocado exporters should invest in improving logistics by partnering with shipping companies to optimize port operations and reduce congestion. Additionally, exploring alternative shipping routes or expanding airfreight options for high-demand markets like the US, Europe, and Asia could mitigate rising freight costs and delays. As production volumes increase, securing efficient export channels will be critical to maintaining market share and ensuring timely deliveries of more significant, high-quality fruit.

Strengthen Market Penetration in China

Avocados Australia should enhance marketing and promotion strategies to boost brand recognition in the Chinese market. This can be achieved by collaborating with local influencers and health-focused campaigns, highlighting the nutritional benefits of avocados to align with China's growing health-conscious consumer base. Additionally, it should streamline logistics and distribution networks to ensure consistent, high-quality supply, capitalizing on the momentum from the memorandum of understanding to maximize market access.

Sources: Tridge, Agraria, Capital News, Freshplaza, MXfruit, myNEWS, Inkawald