In W46 in the shrimp landscape, global farmed shrimp production is expected to reach 5.6 million metric tons (mmt) in 2023, a 1% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. The forecast for 2024 suggests a recovery of 4.8% YoY. China will likely maintain a strong import demand in Q4 of 2023 to cover the high consumption season from Dec-23 to Feb-24. The United States (US) will purchase more from Latin America due to lower logistics costs. Despite declining inflation, the demand is still weak in all major European countries. However, the demand from Southeast Asia and the Far East are expected to improve by the end of the year due to the celebration of Christmas, Gregorian New Year, and Lunar New Year between Dec-23 and Feb-24. Prices will strengthen during this period, while total output will be seasonally low.
In Q3-23, Vietnamese shrimp exports to China and Hong Kong reached USD 173 million, a 15% YoY increase, although cumulative exports for the first nine months were down by 6% YoY. Whiteleg and black tiger shrimps were the major export varieties in Q3, constituting more than 75% of the total exports, and increased by 14% YoY and 22% YoY, respectively. The main reason for the rise in Q3 is the strong demand during China’s Mid-Autumn and National Holiday periods.
Additionally, the average price of frozen whiteleg shrimp exported to China in Q3 ranged from USD 4.9 to 7.9 per kilogram (kg), while the average price of frozen black tiger shrimp ranged from USD 8.2 to 13.8/kg. The purchasing price of Chinese importers is relatively low due to intense competition. However, China is still an important market for Vietnamese shrimp, especially after China banned Japanese seafood.
In Sep-23, the US imported 70.59 thousand tons of frozen shrimp products, a 9% YoY increase. Notably, it is a consecutive increase in the past three months after a 13-month decline due to the high inflation. India and Ecuador, the two major exporters to the US market, experienced growth. However, there was a decline in exports from Indonesia.
In the first nine months of 2023, Ecuador exported 912.2 thousand metric tons (mt) of frozen shrimp, a 15% YoY increase. However, the accumulated shrimp export value during this period was USD 4.82 billion, a decline of 15% YoY. In addition, the average export price dropped by 18% YoY and stood at USD 5.28/kg, due to oversupply from Ecuador and India and declining demand in Europe and the US. Despite Ecuador having announced its intention to reduce its dependence on China and diversify to other markets, China's demand for Ecuadorian shrimp remains strong. In 2023, Ecuador supplied 70% of China's shrimp imports compared to India's 18%.
Lastly, Ecuador is shifting its focus towards developing value-added and peeled shrimp products to maintain sustainable development. Ecuador's top shrimp processing companies, including Omarsa and Songa, have recently constructed new value-added processing plants and shrimp steaming lines, indicating a stronger emphasis on this area.