Weekly Product Updates

W47 Corn Update: Global Corn Production Forecast Hits Record High for 2023/24 Season; US and Russia See Promising Harvest Prospects

Maize (Corn)
Brazil
Market & Price Trends
Russia
Published Nov 28, 2023
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Record Global Corn Production Forecast for 2023/24; US and Russia Expect Strong Harvests

On November 9, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the global corn production forecast for 2023/24 by 6.32 million metric tons (mmt) to a record 1.22 billion metric tons (mt). Similarly, on November 16, the International Grains Council (IGC) raised their forecast to 1.223 billion mt, an increase of 62 mmt compared to the previous season. Moreover, the USDA predicts a significant increase in the 2023/24 season's corn harvest in the United States (US), reaching 386.97 mmt, marking 11% growth compared to the previous season and a 7% rise over the five-year average.

Additionally, the US corn export potential is estimated at 52.7 mmt, reflecting a 25% increase from the previous season's harvest. Russia is poised to achieve a potential record corn harvest in the 2023/24 season, with estimates ranging from 17 mmt to 17.6 mmt. In the previous season (2022/23), Russia set a record by harvesting 15.8 mmt of corn, representing a 4% increase from 2021/22. The forecast positions Russia among the top 10 corn-producing countries globally, surpassing Canada, which had a production of 15.3 mmt.

US Corn Harvest at 93%, Brazil at 76% in 2023

The US corn harvest is progressing well, with 93% completion, up from 88% last week. Despite some key states lagging, overall progress is favorable compared to the five-year average of 91% as producers transition focus from soybeans to corn. According to the latest USDA weekly crop update, in Minnesota, only 3% of corn acreage is yet to be harvested, while in Tennessee, farmers harvested 98% of corn. However, drought conditions are intensifying, impacting pasture quality and raising concerns about hay supplies for the winter. Meanwhile, Kentucky farmers are concluding the harvest with 95% of corn harvested.

The first corn crop in southern Brazil was 76% planted as of late W46, compared to 70% in 2022. This represents an advance of 10% week-on-week (WoW). A few days of dry weather last week allowed farmers to return to the field, but more wet weather is forecast to return to southern Brazil, especially Rio Grande do Sul. Brazil faces challenges in its 2023/24 corn production as Conab reduced the estimate to 119.06 mmt, citing a 340 thousand mt decrease in the Nov-23 report due to a reduction in the first corn crop by 40 thousand hectares (ha). The safrinha crop is at risk as a lack of rain forces a delay in soybean planting by up to 30 days, jeopardizing safrinha corn planting. Farmers, already cautious due to lower corn prices, are facing additional uncertainties.

Brazil's Corn Exports Surge 29.2% YoY in Early Nov-23

In the first 11 days of Nov-23, Brazil saw a notable year-on-year (YoY) increase of 29.2% in corn exports, shipping 4.19 mmt of unground corn with a daily average shipment of 380,611 mt. In Oct-23, Mato Grosso, a key state, exported 2.21 mmt of corn, with 40.48% destined for China. Throughout 2023, Mato Grosso has dispatched a total of 21.22 mmt of corn, and China has acquired 5.47 mmt, constituting 25.79% of the overall shipments from the state. This surge is due to the trade agreement between Brazil and China, which positions the Asian country as a major buyer of corn from Mato Grosso, driven by its demand for livestock feed.

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