Weekly Product Updates

W47 Wheat Update: Wheat Forecast Adjusted Globally; India Sees 5% Drop in Wheat Sowing

Wheat
Brazil
Regulation & Compliances
India
Market & Price Trends
Published Nov 27, 2023
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USDA Lowers Global Wheat Estimates for 2023/24

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Nov-23 report, there is a reduction in the forecast for global wheat production in 2023/24 by 1.45 million metric tons (mmt), compared to the Oct-23 forecast, bringing the new estimate to 781.98 mmt. This decrease is entirely offset by an increase in the estimate of the initial transitional stock of wheat as of July 1, 2023, now at 269.55 mmt, which is 2 mmt higher than the Oct-23 forecast. The Council's experts once again adjusted their estimates for the harvests in Russia, the European Union (EU), and Ukraine. Russia's gross wheat harvest estimate was raised by 340 thousand metric tons (mt) to 91.7 million metric tons (mmt). This is attributed to the reassessment of previously harvested areas, as reported by the Institute of Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) on November 19.

Wheat Sowing Area in India Shrinks by 5% in 2023 Rabi Season

In India, the area under wheat coverage during the ongoing rabi (winter-sown) season has decreased by 5%, reaching 8.6 million hectares (ha), according to data from the agriculture ministry. In the same period last year, the sowing area for wheat was 9.1 million ha. Notably, the states with lower wheat coverage so far include Uttar Pradesh (387 thousand ha), Punjab (228 thousand ha), Haryana (214 thousand ha), and Gujarat (71 thousand ha). On the other hand, higher wheat coverage is reported in Madhya Pradesh (344 thousand ha) and Rajasthan (68 thousand ha).

US Winter Wheat Thrives Overall, Yet Challenges Loom in Kansas while Brazil Faces Quality Concerns Due to Adverse Weather

In the US, winter wheat conditions are at their best start in four years, with overall favorable conditions. However, dry conditions in key areas, notably Kansas, a leading winter wheat grower, pose challenges. The success of the US winter wheat crop will heavily depend on springtime weather, and the USDA is expected to maintain a 47% rating of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition.

The National Supply Company (Conab) reveals significant concerns about the degradation of wheat quality in Brazil. Adverse weather conditions, particularly heavy rains in the South region, have hampered progress in the cereal harvest. In Rio Grande do Sul, a major wheat-producing state, the harvest faces challenges due to intense rains, limiting operations. While some areas have nearly completed the harvest, the wheat quality does not meet the desired standards, raising concerns for producers. In Paraná, another key wheat-producing state, the harvest is nearing completion, but there is a notable incidence of inferior-quality wheat and mycotoxins presence, representing a health risk and reducing commercial value.

Russia Imposes Six-Month Durum Wheat Export Ban

The Russian Government has announced a six-month ban on the export of durum wheat, starting December 1, 2023, and ending May 31, 2024. The measure aims to guarantee food security, specifically for products derived from the processing of durum wheat, and to control consumer prices in the domestic market. Although durum wheat constitutes a small percentage of Russia's cereal exports, totaling up to 100 thousand mt per season, the ban may impact pasta production, with most exports going to countries like Italy and Turkey.

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