Weekly Product Updates

W48 Sugar Update: Global Sugar Prices Expected to Maintain the Uptrend Amidst Low Production and Export Anticipation from India and Thailand

Sugar Beet
Brazil
Market & Price Trends
Sugarcane
India
Published Dec 6, 2023
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Brazilian Sugar Producers Set for a Good Year in 2023

Sugarcane fields in the center-south are expected to recover in the 2023/24 season, leading to a massive sugar harvest estimation of 610 million metric tons (mmt) for the 2024/25 season. The sugar producers in Brazil are having a good year in 2023, with high production volume and excellent market prices. However, despite the significant harvest in Brazil, the low production and export anticipation from India and Thailand in the 2023/24 season has resulted in booming international prices since mid-2023. The doubts about the recovery of these countries in 2024 could lead to promising prices for the following year.

India's Sugar Production Drops by 10.65% YoY in First Two Months of the 2023/24 Season

India's sugar production decreased by 10.65% year-over-year (YoY) to 4.32 mmt in the first two months of the 2023/24 season compared to the same period last season. The decline is due to lower outputs in Maharashtra and Karnataka, the country's second and third-largest sugar producers. In Oct-23 and Nov-23, sugar production in Maharashtra and Karnataka were 1.35 mmt and 1.1 mmt, respectively, showing a decrease of 33.15% and 9.09% YoY. However, the country's top sugar producer, Uttar Pradesh, witnessed an increase of 22.64% YoY, with a total production of 1.3 mmt.

Brazil's Sugar and Molasses Exports Surged by 36.7% YoY

According to the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), Brazil exported 3.68 mmt of sugar and molasses in Nov-23, generating a revenue of USD 1.910 billion. This represents a 10.07% YoY increase in volume and 36.7% in value. The average daily export volume was 184.24 thousand mt/day, a 10% increase compared to the same period in 2022. The average export price was USD 518.60/mt, 24% higher than in 2022. The accumulated exports in the first eleven months of 2023 were 27.54 mmt, with an export value of USD 13.636 billion.

Indonesia Becomes World's Largest Sugar Importer

Indonesia has become the world's largest sugar importer. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the country's sugar imports are expected to increase to 5.8 mmt in the 2022/23 season, up from 5.46 mmt in 2021/22. China is ranked second with an import volume of 4.4 mmt. This year, Indonesia is projected to import 5.6 million tons of raw and refined sugar for consumption, in addition to government-assigned consumption sugar. However, Indonesia's heavy reliance on sugar imports poses several risks, including global sugar price surges and exchange rate fluctuations. The Indonesian government is importing seeds from Australia or Brazil to develop local sugar cultivation to address this issue.

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