Weekly Product Updates

W7 Wheat Update: Russian Wheat Harvest Forecast Rises to 93.6 MMT in 2024, French Soft Wheat Stocks Expected to Reach 19-Year High in 2023/24

Wheat
France
Published Feb 23, 2024
image
In W7 in the wheat landscape, the forecast for the Russian wheat harvest in 2024 has been revised upward to 93.6 mmt due to favorable weather conditions, with winter wheat estimated at 67.7 mmt and spring wheat at 25.9 mmt. Russia is expected to supply 66.7 mmt of grain to world markets in the 2023/24 export season, including 52.5 mmt of wheat, showcasing growth compared to the previous year and surpassing many competitors experiencing export declines. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan's grain reserves as of February 1, 2024, decreased to 12.6 mmt, with French exports of soft wheat to non-EU countries surging in Dec-23 and Jan-24, although facing challenges due to increased competition from Ukraine, leading to a 19-year high projection for French wheat stocks at the end of the 2023/24 season.

Russian Wheat Harvest Forecast Revised Upward to 93.6 MMT in 2024

The forecast for the Russian wheat harvest in 2024 has been revised upward by 1.4 million metric tons (mmt) to 93.6 mmt, compared to the 92.8 mmt harvested in 2023. This adjustment is due to favorable weather conditions. The winter wheat harvest is estimated to be 67.7 mmt, an increase from 63.8 mmt in 2023, while the spring wheat harvest is projected to be 25.9 mmt, down from 28.9 mmt. Most regions where winter wheat is grown have experienced favorable weather, with temperatures averaging 2 to 4 °C above usual and heavy snow cover reported in Central and Volga districts. However, abnormally warm temperatures in the South, reaching 10 to 12 °C have been observed. While this could threaten winter wheat crops if there is a sudden cold snap, such fluctuations are currently not a significant concern.

Russian Grain Exports Set to Surge to 66.7 MMT in 2023/24 Season

Russia is expected to supply 66.7 mmt of grain to world markets in the 2023/24 export season (from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024), including 52.5 mmt of wheat. Experts anticipate a growth of almost 9% year-on-year (YoY) for grain and 6.6% YoY for wheat compared to the 2022/23 season. Moreover, the pace of Russian exports will increase, contrasting with many of its main competitors. Major exporters like the European Union (EU), Canada, the United States (US), and Ukraine have experienced declines in their export rates. The second half of the season is expected to see the highest export potential in Russia and Canada. In the 2022/23 agricultural year, grain exports from Russia amounted to 60 mmt, including about 47 mmt of wheat.

Kazakhstan's Grain Reserves Dipped to 12.6 mmt by Feb-24

As of February 1 of this year, Kazakhstan had 12.6 mmt of grains and legumes, down from 13.9 mmt in the previous year. Among these, 8.4 mmt were for food, 1.1 mmt for seed, and 2.9 mmt for feed. Specifically, the country had 10.14 mmt of wheat, nearly 12% lower YoY than the previous year's 11.46 mmt. Food wheat reserves amounted to 7.29 mmt, feed wheat to 1.93 mmt, and seed wheat to approximately 913 thousand mt.

French Exports of Soft Wheat Surged to Non-EU Nations from Dec-23 to Jan-24

French exports of soft wheat to non-EU countries experienced a notable increase in Dec-23 and Jan-24. In Dec-23, significant volumes were exported, particularly to China with 690 thousand mt and to Algeria with 158 thousand mt. This trend continued into Jan-24, with exports to China totaling 268 thousand mt, and this momentum persisted into early Feb-24. Moreover, there was a resurgence in exports to Morocco, amounting to 338 thousand mt.

French Soft Wheat Stocks Expected to Reach 19-Year High by End of 2023/24 Season

The forecast for French soft wheat stocks at the end of the 2023/24 season is expected to reach a 19-year high due to reduced exports to other EU countries, influenced by heightened competition from Ukraine. French wheat stocks at the end of the season on June 30 are projected to be 3.50 mmt, up from the previous forecast of 3.44 mmt. This indicates a substantial 37% increase over last season's stocks. The decline in French wheat exports to the EU is primarily due to the surge in imports of cheaper Ukrainian grain, which has diminished the demand for French wheat within the EU market, particularly in Spain and Italy. Consequently, the estimated French soft wheat exports to the EU is 6.32 mmt, marking a 1% decrease YoY.

By clicking “Accept Cookies,” I agree to provide cookies for statistical and personalized preference purposes. To learn more about our cookies, please read our Privacy Policy.