Iranian Pistachio Price Rally Ends Despite Poor Production Outlook

Wholesale pistachio kernel prices in Iran fell by 3% MoM to USD 14.52/kg in April, the first monthly decline in six months. The production outlook for 2023 remains grim, as years of unregulated water use, have led to a depletion of groundwater resources used to irrigate trees. However, even in a worse-case scenario, Iran should produce more pistachios than is domestically consumed, and remain a net exporter. Prices could gradually decline back to export parity in the second half of 2023 as the market regains certainty from the first crop estimates.