Putin’s Speech Raise Concerns About the Stability and Longevity of Black Sea Exports

Putin's speech on 21 October raised concerns about the stability of Ukraine’s export corridor through the Black sea and the risk of an intensification of Russian war efforts. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial military mobilisation to call up as many as 300,000 reservists and hinted ominously about the use of nuclear weapons to protect Russian territory. Russia also announced that referendums will be held in the occupied territories of Ukraine so that the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson can join the Russian Federation, a referendum that if confirmed could further aggravate the conflict. Putin has made it clear that he supports the idea, and whoever attacks the occupiers in Donbass, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will have attacked the Russian Federation. These actions come less than a month before the export corridor agreement expires on 20 November 2022, raising serious concerns whether exports through the Black Sea will continue after expiration.