South African 2023 Citrus Export Estimates

The Valencia Focus Group has revised downward its predictions for the export of various South African citrus fruits in 2023 by 1.4 million cartons to 53.1 million cartons from 54.5 million cartons. The prediction for Navels decreased by 500 thousand cartons from 25.3 million cartons to 24.8 million cartons, while the grapefruit prediction decreased by 100 thousand cartons to 14.3 million cartons. Moreover, lemon production is expected to decrease by 1.6 million cartons to 35.7 million cartons. On the contrary, the projection for Mandarin slightly increased by 200 thousand cartons, from 34.1 million cartons to 34.3 million cartons.

Declines are attributed to adverse climatic conditions. Late rains in the north impacted early shipping and fruit drop; rains in the Eastern and Western Cape impacted packing choices between lemons, oranges, and mandarins, while delayed colour development also had an impact. Elevated freight rates also hinder exports.