Global Dynamics for Meat Exports Might Change In New Zealand

The new export season for meat in New Zealand is facing different global dynamics than the last couple of seasons. After record numbers of beef arrived in China (258K tons) in August, the demand from this market decreased. The demand for frozen lamb is rising compared to chilled, with customers wanting certainty and longevity. New Zealand beef exports to the USA in the year to date are down, with tariff rate quotas issued to August 31 being 25% lower YoY. Australian beef exports for August are also recovering, with an MoM increase of 23%. Until W44 to W46, New Zealand producers will need to provide direction on pricing and demand. Staffing and shipping issues have seen volumes decline in recent seasons, and those issues are forecasted to remain for the coming season. There was also an increase in cheap lamb from Australia, which affected prices in Asia, the USA, and the Middle East which might push lower meat prices in the coming season.