Wheat is under pressure from the renewal of the Black Sea initiative as it means Ukrainian supplies are easier for the world to access. For next season, although wheat supplies look tighter, total grain supplies still look heavy.
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Forecasts for a record Brazilian 2022/23 Safrinha crop and a large 2023/24 US crop are weighing on markets. Longer-term, supplies continue to look heavy, with increased forecasts for Argentina in 2023/24. Global barley prices continue to follow movements in the wider grain complex. Forecasts of larger feed grain supplies for the new season keep sentiment bearish. As at 18 May, new crop feed barley (delivered E.Anglia, Nov-23) was £21.50/t below feed wheat. Global grain prices fell last week, after choppy trading in the earlier part of the week. There was uncertainty in the market ahead of Thursday’s deadline for extending the Ukrainian export corridor. The deal, officially known as the Black Sea Initiative, was extended for 60 days on Wednesday afternoon. This means easier access to supplies from the region until 17 July. Wheat prices fell sharply after the announcement but recovered slightly on Friday. There’s also uncertainty about the US debt situation, as negotiations to avoid ...